在2025 IISS Shangri-la Dialogue發言十分犀利而生猛的美國戰爭部長Pete Hegseth在2026年的發言顯然Toned Down

[david chou]

在2025 IISS Shangri-la Dialogue發言十分犀利而生猛的美國戰爭部長Pete Hegseth在2026年的發言顯然Toned Down (I)

1

我日前在談Adm. Dennis Blair (USN, Ret.)時說:

在2026 NDS只提First Island Chain的Collective Defense & Collective Deterrence (不提台灣)以及Secretary of War Pete Hegseth在2026 Shangri-la Dialogue也罕見不提台灣之後,我就一直在琢磨這個現象背後的原因,我只是還沒有做出結論.但無論如何,此事應該沒有或不會純是因為老川行政團隊要與支共北京流氓政權建立 "A Constructive Relationship of Strategic Stability" 那麼單純.

我最近想起我以前讀過的 [bipartisan]The Commission on the National Defense兩年前發表的一篇報告[Appendix],我最近又再讀一遍.

鄉親們不必跟我一樣閱讀那份報告,只要讀下面幾段即可:

"The Commission finds that, in many ways, China is outpacing the United States and has largely negated the U.S. military advantage in the Western Pacific through two decades of focused military investment. Without significant change by the United States, the balance of power will continue to shift in China’s favor."

 

"The Commission finds that the U.S. military lacks both the capabilities and the capacity required to be confident it can deter and prevail in combat."

可能是戰爭部長Pete Hegseth與戰爭部第三號人物Elbridge "Bridge" Colby在幾個月前讀了或又讀了這份報告,所以他們從今年1月調整了他們的Approach [不過他們在國會作證時,都跟國會議員說,第一島鏈的防衛當然包括台灣, 對台軍售的政策也沒有改變] & Rhetorics.

2

我在去(2025)年為了談論與追蹤Old Donald 2.0的NDS (美國國防戰略),開了一個欄, 該欄一直到今(2026)年初才結束.我把觀察重點放在Old Donald 2.0是否把亞太(特別是第一島鏈又特別是台灣)的防衛也跟Homeland & 西半球的防衛一樣,都被列為美國國防與軍事建設的優先事項,較少注意其他.

但在2026 NDS出現後,再加上其他現象與事件的發展, 我開始在研究與探討戰爭部的一些轉變或調整及其背後的因素與考量,這個研究還在進行,現在還無法做出初步結論.

3

(3-a)昨天, WaPo有一則報導:

Elbridge Colby has become the central figure in a battle to define the future of “America First” foreign policy

By Noah Robertson

Washington Post

June 29, 2026 at 7:00 a.m. EDT

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/06/28/trump-pentagon-appointee-who-divided-republican-party/

(3-b) 我還沒能讀到這則報導的全文, 所以, 我請AI來告訴我們該項報導是在說什麼:

AI Info

Yes, as reported by The Washington Post, Elbridge Colby's office quietly urged the administration to not support Senator Roger Wicker's congressional delegation to Taiwan in the summer of 2025. [1]

Key details of the opposition include:

The Concern: Colby was worried the high-profile legislative trip would unnecessarily provoke a backlash from Beijing. [1]

The Division: The resistance highlighted a broader ideological divide over China policy between Colby's office, which wanted to avoid "flashy symbolic displays," and congressional Republicans like Wicker. [1] 

The Outcome: The Pentagon eventually provided the necessary aircraft for Wicker's trip, allowing the delegation to proceed with their meetings in Taipei. [1, 2]

The Trump Pentagon appointee who has divided top Republicans Elbridge Colby has become the central figure in a battle to define the future of “America First” foreign policy.

 WaPo的報導指出, 已被參院同意任命為戰爭部第三號人物的戰略才子Elbridge Colby要求親台保台的參院軍委會主席Sen. Roger Wicker不要在去年夏天訪問台灣, 以免刺激支那. [當時Colby撰寫的NDS初稿尚未發交給有關人員與顧問閱讀, 以便向他們尋求修改之意見.]

(3-c) Colby阻止未果, 國防部還是 [在去年8月底] 派了專機, 把Sen. Wicker訪問團載到台灣:

US Senator Roger Wicker Concludes Delegation Visit To Taiwan

Reporter/Provider - Joseph Wu/Tiffany Wong
Publish Date -08/30/2025ㄧ

https://www.taiwanplus.com/news/taiwan-news/taiwan-us-relations/250830008/us-senator-roger-wicker-concludes-delegation-visit-to-taiwan

 

US Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker concludes his visit with Senator Deb Fischer to Taiwan. Over the two-day trip, they discussed security and deterrence with Taiwan's president and other top policymakers. The visit came ahead of Senate talks on the National Defense Authorization Act, which Wicker says will account for Taiwan.

[to be continued]

David Chou

Founder

Formosa Statehood Movement

[david chou]

在2025 IISS Shangri-la Dialogue發言十分犀利而生猛的美國戰爭部長Pete Hegseth在2026年的發言顯然Toned Down (II)

1

美國國防部長Pete Hegseth在 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore 發表演說: "The threat China poses is real. And it could be imminent. (支那鬼子武力犯台是真實的威脅, 而且可能很快就會到來)"

這項演說有幾處值得注意與喝采的重點:

"Beyond our borders, beyond our neighborhood, we are

 reorienting toward deterring aggression by Communist

 China."

"But if deterrence fails, we will be prepared to do what the Department of Defense does best – fight and win — decisively." 

"We will stand with you and work hard alongside you to deter Chinese aggression. And we will do so in a rational and pragmatic manner.  Each day, together, creating more and more dilemmas and complications for China, should they decide to overturn the status quo." 

 "As our allies put their shoulders to the plow and carry more of their own burden, we will continue increasing our focus on the Indo-Pacific, our priority theater."

"Here in the Indo-Pacific, our futures are bound together. The prosperity and security of the American people are linked with those of your peoples. America has too much at stake in the Indo-Pacific to walk away. We are here to stay."

"Before we get to these hard truths, let me begin by saying, we do not seek conflict with Communist China. But we will not be pushed out of this critical region. And we will not let our allies and partners be subordinated." 

"China seeks to become the hegemonic power in Asia. It wishes to dominate and control this vibrant and vital region.  Through its massive military build-up and growing willingness to use military force to achieve its goals, China has demonstrated that it wants to fundamentally alter the region's status quo."

"China's behavior towards its neighbors and the world is a wake-up call. And an urgent one." 

"Nobody knows what China will ultimately do. But they are preparing. And we must, therefore, be ready as well.  Urgency and vigilance is our only option."

"But let me again be clear:  The United States does not seek war.  We do not seek to dominate or strangle China.  We do not seek to humiliate China.  We do not seek regime change.  Instead, we seek peace.  But we must ensure that China cannot dominate us — or our allies and partners.  That is a rational, common sense goal that all should be able to live with."

底下幾段則直接涉及台灣:

"At the same time, President Trump has said that Communist China will not invade Taiwan on his watch.  Our goal is to prevent war.  And we will do this with a strong shield of deterrence, forged together with you – America's great allies and partners.  Together, we will show what we mean by Peace through Strength. In many ways seen, and unseen. Overt and covert."

"Every day, China's military harasses Taiwan. These activities have been paired with China's rapid military modernization and buildup – including massive investments in nuclear weapons, hypersonic missiles, and amphibious assault capabilities."

"It should be clear to all that Beijing is concretely and credibly preparing to use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.  We know that Xi Jinping has ordered his military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.  The PLA is building the capabilities needed to do it — at breakneck speed. The PLA is training for it, every day. The PLA is rehearsing for the real deal." 

"Let me be clear: any attempt by Communist China to conquer Taiwan would result in devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world. We are not going to sugarcoat it. The threat China poses is real. And it could be imminent."

這項演說把矛頭直接指向猥瑣的支那鬼子, 且對支那鬼子對

台灣造成的嚴重威脅加以關切.

2

但在今年的Shangri-la演說中, Pete對支那鬼子的調子顯已放

低放緩:

We do not approach this challenge with needless confrontation, but with a posture of measured and deliberate strength. Our focus is strong, quiet, and clear—strong, quiet, clear. Clear about our intentions, our priorities, and our ability to deliver on the administration's goals. This is a model our Asian partners vastly prefer and have long followed. Our allies across Asia do not seek constant escalation, rhetorical theatrics, or a region defined by public confrontation. What they want and what the United States delivers is strength that is disciplined, resolve that is steady, and leadership that is confident enough to speak and walk softly while carrying a big stick.

美國戰爭部與戰爭部長現在已沒有往年的生猛,現在的戰爭部與戰爭部長是 "strong, quiet, and clear—strong, quiet, clear. ------ to speak and walk softly while carrying a big stick."

[to be continued]

David Chou

Founder

Formosa Statehood Movement

[david chou]

在2025 IISS Shangri-la Dialogue發言十分犀利而生猛的美國戰爭部長Pete Hegseth在2026年的發言顯然Toned Down (III)

我在上文中說, 戰爭部長Pete Hegseth在2026年的IISS Shangri-la Dialogue的演說, 對支那鬼子的調子已放低放軟 [他在這次, 更是不再提台灣], 不過, 在此之前, 他在2025年12月的Reagan Forum的演說以及在2026年1月發表的NDS (National Defense Strategy), 對支那都已toned down. [在Reagan Forum, 還提台灣, 但2026 NDS已沒有提台灣, 只提FIC (First Island Chain).]

現在請鄉親們閱讀Pete在Reagan Forum演說之中的幾段話:

Remarks by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth at the

Reagan National Defense Forum (As Delivered)

Dec. 6, 2025

https://www.war.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/4354431/remarks-by-secretary-of-war-pete-hegseth-at-the-reagan-national-defense-forum-a/

"Again, this is common sense, and that's what President Trump's War Department is all about.  This commonsense approach means prioritizing four key lines of effort at the Department of War:  first, defending the U.S. homeland and our hemisphere; second, deterring China through strength, not confrontation; third, increased burden-sharing for U.S. allies and partners; and fourth, supercharging the U.S. defense industrial base."

"The second line of effort for the War Department is deterrence against China through strength, not through confrontation.  Under President Trump's leadership, relations between the United States and China are better and stronger than they've been in many years.  President Trump and this administration seek a stable peace, fair trade and respectful relations with China." 

"In November, President Trump and President Xi reached a major breakthrough trade, putting both nations on a strong economic pathway.  Reciprocal state visits in 2026 provide the opportunity for even more progress.  The War Department is committed to the same approach, opening a wider range of military-to-military communications with the People's Liberation Army, aimed at deconfliction and de-escalation." 

"That's the world that we seek in the Indo-Pacific, and that is what our approach is designed to produce.  We will be strong but not unnecessarily confrontational.  To quote another great Republican president, "We will speak softly and carry a big stick.""

在我摘錄的第一段話 "second, deterring China through strength, not confrontation" 這一部分告訴我們: 戰爭部是把嚇阻支那.保衛台灣或第一島鏈做為美國國防戰略與建設的第二優先或與其他三項同列為優先事項, 只不過是 "deterring China through strength, not confrontation".

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