How to interpret inconsistent BAMM results across different expectedNumberOfShifts values?

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Hu Ling

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Mar 6, 2026, 7:49:34 AM (8 days ago) Mar 6

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Hi,

Recently, I have been using BAMM for analysis but encountered some issues. I tried setting expectedNumberOfShifts = 0.5/1/2/3/5 to check whether the posterior distributions are consistent. However, I am unsure how to interpret the current results.

When setting expectedNumberOfShifts = 0.5/1: the plotPrior results support the 0 shift, and credibleShiftSet() also indicates that the highest probability is for no shift. However, computeBayesFactors() shows that, compared to 0 shift, 1 shift has a higher probability.

When setting expectedNumberOfShifts = 2/3/5: the plotPrior results support the 1 shift, but credibleShiftSet() still indicates that the highest probability is for no shift, and computeBayesFactors() still shows that, compared to 0 shift, 1 shift has a higher probability.

I have attached both cases. These results are quite puzzling. How should I proceed next?

Anyone could help me?

Thanks

Ling

BAMM result.pdf

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