BAA-London - February Symposium

[Phil Last]

BAA-London - February Symposium
----------------
BAA-London - the London based discussion group for the APL family of array languages.

The February Symposium is due to be held on Friday 28 at:

The Hoop and Grapes
80 Farringdon Street
London
EC4A 4BL

http://www.google.com/maps?q=Hoop+and+Grapes+Farringdon+Street

Upstairs room  booked from 14.30 'til 17.30. Meet earlier downstairs for a pre-event drink and/or a chat.
----------

Agenda

Finalising details for Spring Symposium?

-----------------------------

Next - 27 March and the last Friday of all subsequent months except December.

------------------------------
Suggestions and discussion of agenda for this and further symposiums please to: http://groups.google.com/group/baa-london/topics

[John Jacob]

We have just sent the mail shot for the Mini-conferences.
See below.

Starting this year the British APL Association is upgrading two of the regular monthly meetings to mini-conferences.

 
Whereas the monthly meetings provide a regular opportunity to for one-to-one hook-ups, general discussions, a demonstration platform for practical projects. The mini-conferences will be more focused events at fixed dates in the calendar with a defined program.
   
The first event for spring 2020 will take place on 27th March at The Worshipful Company of Information Technologists at 39a Bartholomew Close, London, EC1A 7JN.

 

 

Full Details

Kind regards John Jacob

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[Ray Cannon]

As I am already over 70 and (borderline) type 2 diabetic, I should NOT
be attending the conference in person. Also travel by public transport
may will be restricted by the 27th.

Should we at this point in time consider postponing the mini-conference
planned for 27 March?

Or should we start planning holding it as a virtual conference via the
internet?

I believe we should start planning for (and testing) contingencies now.

Ray

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[michael]

I also will not be attending in person although only 60 . Wife is also diabetic so we are staying home to protect her.

I am happy to do virtual talk but I get most out of face todace so would prefer postponement 

Michael

Sent from Samsung Mobile on O2

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[crishog]

The general consensus is for postponement - with possibly merging the delayed event with the AGM, always assuming that the peak problems have passed.

[pe...@cyriax.me.uk]

I was going to say that I'm happy to come if anybody else is.

I'm 72 in April, but with no underlying health problems, so I am probably in the "moderately at risk" group; but I don't accept that that in general a program of lockdown or extreme isolation will actually achieve very much.

As a group that likes to present itself as intelligent and numerate I think we have some obligation to look dispassionately at the numbers in a (no doubt vain) attempt to counter the hysteria flowing about the media.

Covid-19 is a new virus, so it will continue to spread until about 60% or so of the population have acquired immunity. The actual formula, I believe, is 100 x (1 - 1/R) % where R is the onward reinfection rate in a population with no immunity.

You can reduce R artificially by lockdown or extreme islolation measures; but unless you completely eliminate the virus (which you can't, any more than you can eliminate flu or the common cold) the virus will re-emerge as soon as you relax those measures.

Such measures are sensible and effective when the objective is to slow down the rate at which the virus spreads in order to reduce the peak load on the NHS and other public services, or if your objective is to protect people in the "high risk" group until such time as a vaccine has been developed. But they have huge economic and social costs - there is a genuine risk that the prevention may be worse than the disease. What such measures cannot do is reduce the %age of the population who need to have gained immunity (at present by contracting Covid-19) before the epidemic will decline.

The interesting thing arising from this analysis is that the number of reported cases in China and Italy where the epidemic seems to be declining is two or three orders of magnitude less than the level required. However, Covid-19 has two salient features:

1. It has a long incubation period, and those infected are infectious without symptoms during the incubation period which is why it has proved impossible to contain it
2. Many people become infected and never show any symptoms. How many? W do not know, but I believe almost certainly 99 out of 100, and maybe 999 out of 1000 become infected and are infectious without showing any symptoms. That's the only way I can make sense of the numbers as reported.​ 

What is lacking is a test that shows if you have had the virus - or more specifically whether you posses the anti-bodies that make you immune. Such a test is in development, and once it is available we will be able to determine if my analysis is correct.

If I'm right then the probability that I personally will be exposed to Covid-19 before a vaccine is developed is somewhere over 80% but that actual chances of it killing me if I am exposed  lies between 1 in 2000 and 1 in 100000.

I have, hopefully, 10 more years of good, active life left in me: I am reluctant to lock myself away for a year against a risk that low.

The alternative view is that politicians and business people all over the world are knowingly trashing their companies, economies and societies for some good reason. That implies they have access to some truly frighting data that they are not telling us about.

Time will tell.

Cheers

Peter 

---

From: baa-l...@googlegroups.com <baa-l...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of crishog <goo...@4xtra.com>
Sent: 16 March 2020 16:13
To: BAA London

Subject: Re: BAA-London - Mini-conferences.

The general consensus is for postponement - with possibly merging the delayed event with the AGM, always assuming that the peak problems have passed.

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[Phil Last]

I have to agree with Peter's analysis.

I've been leaning in this direction for several weeks but looking at the
numbers from the other direction.

If China is past the peak with a population of 1.4 millard, reported
infections still in the tens of thousands and only 3 thousand deaths
then Britain can expect about 150 deaths out of 4 thousand infections;
about a tenth of those annual road deaths. Now I don't believe those
figures for a minute but am hard pressed to know what to believe.

When the news media garble the message from the prime minister who puts
his own spin on what his experts are telling him when many of their
sources probably disagree anyway; and then sports, entertainment,
hospitality and educational organisations jump at their understanding of
the news without any proper legal or even official guidance it becomes
difficult to make decisions for oneself; never mind such that might
affect others.

The trouble is that having been a school teacher I've been a very poor
teacher of my seven offspring none of whom is in the slightest bit
interested in either programming or the scientific outlook.

So I'm staying home to keep the peace.

Phil

> 1. It has a long incubation period, and those infected are infectious

> without symptoms during the incubation period which is why it has
> proved impossible to contain it

> 2. Many people become infected and never show any symptoms. How many? W

> do not know, but I believe almost certainly 99 out of 100, and maybe
> 999 out of 1000 become infected and are infectious without showing
> any symptoms. That's the only way I can make sense of the numbers as
> reported.​
>
> What is lacking is a test that shows if you have had the virus - or more
> specifically whether you posses the anti-bodies that make you immune.
> Such a test is in development, and once it is available we will be able
> to determine if my analysis is correct.
>
> If I'm right then the probability that I personally will be exposed to
> Covid-19 before a vaccine is developed is somewhere over 80% but that
> actual chances of it killing me if I am exposed  lies between 1 in 2000
> and 1 in 100000.
>
> I have, hopefully, 10 more years of good, active life left in me: I am
> reluctant to lock myself away for a year against a risk that low.
>
> The alternative view is that politicians and business people all over
> the world are knowingly trashing their companies, economies and
> societies for some good reason. That implies they have access to some
> truly frighting data that they are not telling us about.
>
> Time will tell.
>
>
> Cheers
>
>
> Peter
>
>

> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> *From:* baa-l...@googlegroups.com <baa-l...@googlegroups.com> on
> behalf of crishog <goo...@4xtra.com>
> *Sent:* 16 March 2020 16:13
> *To:* BAA London
> *Subject:* Re: BAA-London - Mini-conferences.

> The general consensus is for postponement - with possibly merging the
> delayed event with the AGM, always assuming that the peak problems have
> passed.
>
>
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> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google
> Groups "BAA London" group.
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>
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[Gilgamesh Athoraya]

This made my day. Oh, please Phil, may I quote you? I feel like I'm in a Stephen King book, surrounded by people in general panic that make me more concerned about my safety than the virus itself.

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[pe...@cyriax.me.uk]

Imperial College released a highly authoritative paper on Covid-19 last night.

I urge everybody to read it:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

It seems that I made a big mistake in under-estimating the effectiveness of the lockdowns in China and Norther Italy, and hence over estimating the level of asymptomatic infections and of the immunity though infection so far achieved.

Phil's numbers for China are in line with what I've heard (reporting is horribly garballed) and probably broadly correct; but the sad fact is that China is NOT past the peak, they have simply suppressed the infection with dracion lockdown measures if the Imperial paper is to be believed (which I do).

Based on the Imperial College paper I am re-considering exactly what I will do over the period of this epidemic. It is the first document I have seen that is authoritative enough to base actions on.

The worrying thing is that it suggests a lockdown sufficient to suppress the virus is needed to prevent NHS resources from being completely overwhelmed; but such a policy will need to be kept in place until effective vaccines are available - possibly 18 months away, because suppression means too few people are infected so immunity does not build up.
________________________________________
From: baa-l...@googlegroups.com <baa-l...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Phil Last <phil...@4xtra.com>
Sent: 17 March 2020 10:16
To: baa-l...@googlegroups.com

Subject: Re: BAA-London - Mini-conferences.

I have to agree with Peter's analysis.

Phil

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[John Jacob]

I feel this personally having just been kicked off the French Alps half way through a skiing holiday.

On arrival we were handed a notice warning us to be wary of various symptoms such as shortness of breath, coughing, dizziness and headaches. Not what a fat old bloke would expect rolling about in the snow at 6,000-10,000 feet above sea level.

All bars, restaurants, hotels and ski lifts were instructed to close from midnight on Saturday. Curiously the the Sunday market remained open, selling cheese and sausage is clearly an essential service.

I have to say that for the week we were there the place was pretty deserted, good for us, less so for businesses in the resort I guess.

Meanwhile back in the UK, Northwich Park Hospital has pretty much closed down. All except the shops and services, which, like my daughters hair salon will have to continue paying rent on their premisses if not instructed to close.

Sounds like we will have a new endemic disease to contend with in the thinning herd. Wonder how COVID-19 stacks up against that old stalwart TB that is making a comeback.

Kind regards John Jacob

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[crishog]

I feel that I should have something sensible to say about this as Freya has been working on the MoD coronavirus reaction team, but she is secretive at the best of times.All I know is that she doesn't trust the Chinese data and generally scoffs at the overreactions of governments.

A lot of people as complaining about our government's response, but it varies from "they are panicking too much" to "why aren't we copying everything that the EU is doing?" A lot seems motivated more by partisan politics than sensible analysis.Whatever we are doing, infection & mortality rates appear to be a lot lower here than in the EU in general.

Saw Corbyn on TV the other night (I had quite forgotten he is still Labour leader) - shouldn't old people be "self-isolating"? See I can get digs in too!

[John Jacob]

I just had to look. Selected from the WHO: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tuberculosis

A total of 1.5 million people died from TB in 2018 (including 251 000 people with HIV). Worldwide, TB is one of the top 10 causes of death and the leading cause from a single infectious agent (above HIV/AIDS).

Multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) remains a public health crisis and a health security threat. WHO estimates that there were 484 000 new cases with resistance to rifampicin – the most effective first-line drug, of which 78% had MDR-TB.

Overheard on the way back from France "We should all meet up at the Winchester and stay there until it all blows over". Meant nothing until I remembered "Shaun of the Dead".

Kind regards John Jacob

[crishog]

On Tuesday, 17 March 2020 20:27:05 UTC, John Jacob (Jake) wrote:

Overheard on the way back from France "We should all meet up at the Winchester and stay there until it all blows over". Meant nothing until I remembered "Shaun of the Dead".

Kind regards John Jacob

Yup, heard that a couple of times myself :-)

[Ray Cannon]

Having read the Imperial Collage paper, and Peters excellent analysis, I
think my best plan is to catch the virus now BEFORE the NHS is
completely overwhelmed, and if I do need ICU treatment, it is still
available!

But don't tell any body else, in case we all do!

(Is this equivalent to bulk buying and hoarding toilet paper?)

Ray

On 17/03/2020 10:29, Pe...@Cyriax.me.uk wrote:
> Imperial College released a highly authoritative paper on Covid-19 last night.
>
> I urge everybody to read it:
> https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
>
> It seems that I made a big mistake in under-estimating the effectiveness of the lockdowns in China and Norther Italy, and hence over estimating the level of asymptomatic infections and of the immunity though infection so far achieved.
>
> Phil's numbers for China are in line with what I've heard (reporting is horribly garballed) and probably broadly correct; but the sad fact is that China is NOT past the peak, they have simply suppressed the infection with dracion lockdown measures if the Imperial paper is to be believed (which I do)
>

>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/baa-london/1584391481486.65770%40cyriaxme.uk

>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/baa-london/1584391481486.65770%40cyriax.me.uk?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>.
>
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> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "BAA London" group.
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>

[pe...@cyriax.me.uk]

Good idea.... but I fear it's too late.
________________________________________
From: baa-l...@googlegroups.com <baa-l...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Ray Cannon <ray_c...@compuserve.com>
Sent: 18 March 2020 07:55

Ray

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[Romilly Cocking]

Alas, Ray, there is some evidence that you can catch it twice.

To view this discussion on the web, visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/baa-london/1584536899347.15516%40cyriax.me.uk.

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[John Jacob]

To any of you that are interested I will run a Zoom session this Friday
to replace the postponed mini-conf and just in case anyone does dial in
anyway.

I think we may have some things to discuss.

The Zoom credentials remain the same as published on the website
https://britishaplassociation.org/baa-mini-conference-spring-2020/

Kind regards John Jacob

[Fiona Smith]

Would you like me to include this on https://www.dyalog.com/dates-for-your-diary.htm?

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[John Jacob]

Yes please Fiona

Kind regards John Jacob

[Fiona Smith]

OK, will do. Is that from 13:00 GMT?

[John Jacob]

14:30 for the usual symposium. I think the real point is to discuss how
to proceed from here.

Kind regards John Jacob