ba.transportation BART->SFO Ridership predicting competition!

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David W. Crawford

unread,
May 30, 2003, 2:25:01 AM5/30/03
to
32500 weekday ave,
26000 everyday ave.

I will spare you the details of BAYCAST-90 (
http://www.mtc.ca.gov/datamart/forecast/baycast1.htm
) vs NYMTC-BPM (
http://www.nymtc.org/BPM/bpmmodel.html#
).

Let's just say I counted parking spaces and multiplied by
a small number.

David W. Crawford <d...@omor.com>

From: Richard Mlynarik <M...@POBox.COM>
Organization: ITS Preservation Society
Message-ID: <gun3ckb...@bolt.sonic.net>
X-Newsreader: Gnus v5.6.45/XEmacs 21.1 - "Bryce Canyon"
Date: Mon, 21 Apr 2003 19:23:48 GMT

BART's SFOX EIS/EIR "predicted" 68600 _new_ transit trips per day in
2010 due the opening of the BART extension south of Colma.

Your job is to predict the average number of exits and exits
from all of the extension stations -- South San Francisco ("Costco"),
San Bruno ("Failedmall1"), San Francisco International Airport
("Failedmall2") and Millbrae ("Parkinglot") -- for the month of
March 2004. (The number of new trips, excluding those forced
to transfer from other modes, is more interesting but harder to
adjudicate.)

Entries must be postmaked by groups.google.com (ie submitted to
ba.transportation, or you can send me mail and I'll post your entry to
ba.transportation, anonymously if necessary for those who work inside
the bellies of the beasts) by midnight PDT on 31 May 2003.

You may submit an entry more than once, but only the last submission
before the deadline counts.

The winner -- the entrant submitting the closest number to that
collected by BART's faregates -- will be announced in April or
early May 2004, and will receive, in addition to universal accolade,
a fabulous but inutile prize of my choosing.

Hint: Remember to account for any cannibalisation of Colma ridership
Hint: Remember to account for any intra-extension ridership.

Neatness does not count, but entries must be legible. (No Flash!)
You do not need to show your work, though it's bound to be
interesting, and particularly clever and accurate (or stupendously
wild) additional predictions (say of individual station trips, or time
of day flows, or weekday versus weekend, etc) are bound to stimulate
and entertain your peers.

The very first entry comes from our wonderful, wonderful friends
at BART, who predict... drum roll please... ... ... ... ... ...

32300 additional BART trips a day for FY04!

Let's all give a big hand to BART for being the first contestants!

Note that this does _not_ account for cannibalisation from existing
Colma ridership; we'll adjust BART's entry by comparing March 2003 and
March 2004 Colma entries and exits, multiplying the difference by the
system-wide percent ridership gain or loss to be scrupulously fair.
So figure BART's official entry is a thousand or so fewer.

Now the agency is just too gosh-darned shy to actually come out
and _say_ this number anywhere, including to its directors or to the
public, but a little work will tease it out from Section 4.1.1.2 and
Figure 11 on page 4-4 (p38 in the PDF) of the BART FY03 Short Range
Transit Plan <http://www.bart.gov/docs/FY03DSRTP.pdf>.

(Note that BART spokesdroid Molly MacArthur claims in today's SF
Chronicle <http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/04/21/BA146692.DTL>
that "estimates for immediate ridership have not been made", but
that's just routine and obvious level BART mendacity.
The agency does do _some_ planning, after all.)

Another fun fact to extract from the FY03 draft SRTP document is that
BART's current projection for FY12 SFOX ridersship is 48100 daily
entries and exits. Compare this to an extrapolation to 71500 NEW
trips from the FY10 "projection"(!!!!) in the SFOX EIS.

Where or where can all those happy willing transit riders have
gone since 1996? (Perhaps they're being kept in cryogenic storage
and will be defrosted to participate in VTA's San Jose BART extension
EIR after having done yeoman duty in Florida in November 2000.)

The trick, it seems, is to give out one figure to funding agencies
when begging for a couple billion in scraps to keep Bechtel, PBQD and
Ron Tutor from abject penury, and to keep another set of books with
different numbers for your own internal revenue projections.

Another valuable lesson in Transportation Enronomics from the masters!

---------

Google put in three adverts for parking, I think i'll just
leave those in
http://groups.google.ca/groups?hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&safe=off&selm=gun3ckbu01p.fsf%40bolt.sonic.net

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Robert Cote

unread,
May 30, 2003, 9:10:45 AM5/30/03
to

> From: Richard Mlynarik <M...@POBox.COM>
> Organization: ITS Preservation Society
> Message-ID: <gun3ckb...@bolt.sonic.net>
> X-Newsreader: Gnus v5.6.45/XEmacs 21.1 - "Bryce Canyon"
> Date: Mon, 21 Apr 2003 19:23:48 GMT
>
> BART's SFOX EIS/EIR "predicted" 68600 _new_ transit trips per day in
> 2010 due the opening of the BART extension south of Colma.
>
> Your job is to predict the average number of exits and exits
> from all of the extension stations -- South San Francisco ("Costco"),
> San Bruno ("Failedmall1"), San Francisco International Airport
> ("Failedmall2") and Millbrae ("Parkinglot") -- for the month of
> March 2004. (The number of new trips, excluding those forced
> to transfer from other modes, is more interesting but harder to
> adjudicate.)

68,600 in 2010 back out "growth" 2010 to 2004, seven years not six and
discount for typical long range end loading of growth models; 2004 equivilant
_new_ boardings (not trips) equals 41,168.

Now extensions give people more choice of destination. A whole lot of people
would like to go one or more stops further than the line goes so those are not
new boardings. Delete the Samtrans realignments, delete Caltrain components,
etc.

Use parking lot space counts and cost per new rider to check the figure. Oh,
wait, and then subtract the ridership lost to the 3 stations that institute
long term parking and the lost ridership because of the new parking fees.

Robert Cote, May 30th 2003; 24,145 new transit boardings which not
coincidentally works out to $100,000 per new rider and equally not
coincidentally about half of the BART definition.

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