ENSO forecasts [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[Ken Kato]

If anyone's interested in what the chances are for an upcoming El Nino/La Nina/neutral conditions, see some attached forecasts from the Bureau's POAMA model and the International Research Institute based in the US.

 

They're currently similar to most of the other dynamical modelling in suggesting neutral conditions into winter with some suggesting the possibility of an El Nino around Spring, or at least the El-Nino'ish side of neutral. Many of the models also suggest the warmer waters could get dragged further westwards across the central Pacific like a "Modoki" El Nino type of pattern more than a truly classic pattern. Still early days though so hopefully by early winter, the oceans will have made up their mind about what they want to do.

 

Ken.

[Gavin O'Brien]

Hi Ken,

Thanks for the post, I guess like manyconcerned people  I am watching the ENSO with interest.Neutral seems the most likely senario at this time.

Cheers,

Gavin,

Gilmore ACT

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