Hello 2...
Sorry gw lagi jarang masuk hotmail soalnya sekarang nggak bisa akses di kantor.
Anyway my position is not too bad lho... khan udah cuci gudang December lalu...
Anyway, there is still a way of making money in the falling (depressing) market lho.
1. Khan ceritanya financial market lagi debt overload neh. Jadi US (and maybe the whole western world) are bailing out financial companies ..
Bailnya pake apa? Yahh kalo nggak nerbitin utang lagi (bond) ya cetak duit ... Nah kalau money supply overload, yang ada currency (USD) bakal devalued (lagi). Nah kalo udah begini yang ada orang bakal lari to the oldest investment in the world ... Gold.
So, when last time market went down 400-500 points in wall street and 3-4% in AORD; guess what went up? GOLD securities (also traded in ASX) went up 11%!!!!
2. Short sell Macquarie and Babcock Brown ... hehehe. Tapi udah dilarang tu di US.
3. Buy Hybrid. E.g. Hybridnya Fairfax (e.g. yang punya SMH, AFR, Age etc), you get 10% annual yield; approx 16% pa return if you hold until maturity.
4. Buy industrial and hold .... Their valuation is ok now and the yield is definitely better than property.
Note: I tried any of my advise dengan hasil yang yahud except no.2 hehehe
Now What not to do ..
1. Don't buy financials... It looks cheap but if tomorrow they announce another several hundreds write down... it wont look cheap anymore.
2. Don't buy resources.... Its just another bubble waiting to burst.
3. Don't buy any company with small current ratio or highly leverage company.
What I am still unsure about..
Property ... Remembering that this crisis is now officially been called "asset bubble" crisis; I wouldn't bet my money on property (yet). I am on the pesimist side that believe that property market in Australia is grossly overvalue e.g. average housing is 6x average income as compare to US which was 4x. Remember that what happen in US normally happen in Australia (several years later).
On the contrary, I had this view since 2002 this could just be me... lol
Take care buddy
Regards,
Adhitya
Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2008 15:47:54 -0700
From:
spawnf...@yahoo.com