Bear vs bull market: How long will this bear last ? [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Adhitya...@immi.gov.au
All of the authoritative sources that I know will tell us that nobody will
know how long this bear market will last.... or how far will it goes down
further (Graham, Benjamin, 1962).
The so called 'experts' (market strategist) that predicts 2009 will likely
be the turnaround year is as good as picking a number in the roulette game.
Worst, they are paid to be bullish about the stock market (Lynch, Peter;
1989)
As you might have read the news, the previous ASX biggest fall was in 1974s
(instead of during great depression).. At that time it went as long as 23
months and as low as 51.8 % from the previous highs (St George, 2007).
This bear has been there for almost 13 months (since November 2007) and if
it to repeat 1974 treat, will fall to and average of 3200ish (almost
achieved in November 2008). The most bearish prediction said that it may
even went down to 2800ish.
What interesting is the promise of the rally which marked the end of the
bear market. The attached graph shows how much the market gain, after the
past bear market finished. What a great gain they have been...
It should be noted, however, that many company will fall in ruin in every
bear market. The shareholders for these companies will never see their
shareholding returned to their previous high - if ever! (just ask the
shareholder of one tel, bond corporation and Allco)
Adhit
(See attached file: ad_bull_bear_all_ords_1.pdf)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Important Notice: If you have received this email by mistake, please advise the sender and delete the message and attachments immediately. This email, including attachments, may contain confidential, sensitive, legally privileged and/or copyright information. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. DIAC respects your privacy and has obligations under the Privacy Act 1988. The official departmental privacy policy can be viewed on the department's website at www.immi.gov.au. See: http://www.immi.gov.au/functional/privacy.htm
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Aji Widhiwijaya
definitely don't mind the 108% gain achieved on the last bear market.. ;)
Adhitya Gautama
Just read the old blabber that we throw around in the beginning of 2009.
Do you miss the 40% market rally?
Lemme give you today’s tip.. put your money in Telstra rather than banks.... Buy at 2.30 – 2.35 AUD and hold for a while. The yield is good and when the NBN settles or when the labour lost the next election... that will shot up to at least AUD 4...
Never mind the profit warning... this is a real profit from market fear of Telstra gov breakup... its a money on the table for those who is willing to risk it.
From a guy who just started his Christmas Holiday..
--~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
"AUST Value Investing" group.
To post to this group, send email to austin...@googlegroups.com
To unsubscribe from this group, send email to austinvestin...@googlegroups.com
For more options, visit this group at
http://groups.google.com/group/austinvesting?hl=en
-~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---