Whats going on

[SPAWN]

Dear investors,

Ada apa yah,kok pasar lagi gak attraktip?
Dhit emang nya begini ya keadaannya diawal minggu? apa ada hubnya dg election?

Darwin

____________________________________________________________________________________
Be a better pen pal.
Text or chat with friends inside Yahoo! Mail. See how. http://overview.mail.yahoo.com/

[Adhitya G.]

Biasanya sih market ngikutin US.
Kalau DJ naik, ASX naik... Kalau DJ crash... ASX ikutan.
Election hubungannya nggak langsung, jadi market nggak terlalu factor event ini ke pricing, tapi Liberal lebih favourable ..
Jadi kalo labour menang, mungkin bakal agak turun dikit..

Regards,
Adhitya

---

> Date: Sun, 18 Nov 2007 21:10:16 -0800
> From: spawnf...@yahoo.com
> Subject: Whats going on
> To: austin...@googlegroups.com

[Aji Widhiwijaya]

Tapi berita bilang index naik, mainly driven by resources and stocks..

 

"The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was 88.5 points higher at 6550.3, while the All Ordinaries gained 87.2 points to 6613.3 "

 

Win, OXR naik tuh sptnya ;)

 

[Adhitya G.]

Guys...
 
I keep hearing warning from leading funds managers and analyst regarding the state of the market.  When their tone become similar, it may be a good idea to appreciate what could be ahead of us:
- Many companies are trading on peak valuations. Notice that banks share price doesn't change much even after record profit announcement.. That because the current price has factor in these record profit. Imagine if the announcement is not a record profit? (i.e. IAG ... shares tumbled from 6.7 to 4.58)
- It still a good idea to be in the market. Maybe have a closer look at defensive stocks: infrastructure (road, telcos, utilities), Gold (see 'GOLD' ETF), Consumers (Amatil), Health, Mining services (Orica)  => From AFR Weekend
 
If you asked me, I am rebalancing my portfolio (excluding super). Now it looked like 50% cash, 38% Aust shares, 12% intl funds. Maybe a bit more in the future to capitalise on the cash on call (7.2%) and hopefully another dip in my target securities like IAG, MGQ, FBU, QBE... (I know they are not as sexy as resources).

Regards,
Adhitya

---

Date: Mon, 19 Nov 2007 21:59:52 +1100
From: aji.wid...@gmail.com
To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Whats going on

> <br

[Aji Widhiwijaya]

Yup, I read the article on the AFR Weekend. All the fund managers reiterated the same tone. To me, sounds like the market is almost exhausted..  repeating 28% return pa in past years would be unlikely..
 

Defensive stocks

Healthcare= health insurance (NIB, I heard there'll be another IPO by MBF sometime in Dec, is this true?), private hospital operators (Ramsay, Sonic?). Cochlear is too expensive I think..

Insurance= is this defensive ? AXA has been mentioned many times recently...  IAG ?

Utilities= any example ??

Food n Beverage= CC Amatil, anything else?

Retail= is this defensive?

 

Bargains??

Although, banking is not considered defensive, but ANZ was specifically mentioned as a bargain. In fact, I saw 2-3 similar recommendations somewhere else.

Billabong is also a bargain, but not sure how long their currency exposure is gonna last..

Any more bargains?

 

Speaking of Cash

Btw, just wondering, where do you get cash rate at 7.2 % ;) ?

I know bank west offer this rate for the first 12 months for a new customer, but we're already with them, so it reverts back to 6.75% :(  Macquarie has a promotional offer for a 12mth term deposit at 7.7% but the money's locked away..

I would check out the AFR later for other alternatives...

 

 

On 11/20/07, Adhitya G. <adhi...@hotmail.com> wrote:

Guys...
 
I keep hearing warning from leading funds managers and analyst regarding the state of the market.  When their tone become similar, it may be a good idea to appreciate what could be ahead of us:

- Many companies are trading on peak valuations. Notice that banks share price doesn't change much even after record profit announcement.. That because the current price has factor in these record profit. Imagine if the announcement is not a record profit? ( i.e. IAG ... shares tumbled from 6.7 to 4.58)

- It still a good idea to be in the market. Maybe have a closer look at defensive stocks: infrastructure (road, telcos, utilities), Gold (see 'GOLD' ETF), Consumers (Amatil), Health, Mining services (Orica)  => From AFR Weekend
 
If you asked me, I am rebalancing my portfolio (excluding super). Now it looked like 50% cash, 38% Aust shares, 12% intl funds. Maybe a bit more in the future to capitalise on the cash on call (7.2%) and hopefully another dip in my target securities like IAG, MGQ, FBU, QBE... (I know they are not as sexy as resources).

Regards,
Adhitya

---

Date: Mon, 19 Nov 2007 21:59:52 +1100
From: aji.wid...@gmail.com
To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Whats going on

Tapi berita bilang index naik, mainly driven by resources and stocks..

 

"The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was 88.5 points higher at 6550.3 , while the All Ordinaries gained 87.2 points to 6613.3 "

[Aji Widhiwijaya]

Mas,

 

FBU, havent heard much about them.. checked the website, they're a building materials manufacturer and distributor..

Are they on the same industry with James Hardie ?

 

Any insights about this industry? and why is this an attractive industry to consider?

 

[Adhitya G.]

Hi Wid,
Great pickup..... Berat deh komentarnya
 
Defensive stock.
Lets start with health care. Eloe khan kerja di bidang itu, kita semua khan punya health insurance...
Health cost soaring is definite, tapi government tax system forces people tuk beli Hospital cover. Jadi they will always have customers... Is just a matter on what is their customer satisfaction, market share growth, their investment policy and so on... They don't borrow from the credit market so profit wont be affected by bank bill rate.
I am a member of NIB and very happy with it. They grew market share more than the market and also have reasonable CF/BS/earning multiplier. I am holding their shares from the IPO and use it as the gauge meter in the insurance sector.
AXA and QBE are quite successful but they are pretty expensive and highly exposed to USD based income.
IAG acquisition failure made them the black sheep of the insurance sector but their pricing could become pretty attractive if the PE hits 12 (now 14 and a bit). Also at dividend yield around 6.1-6.3 percent (100% franked), its equivalent to 8.87% cash rate.. delicious if you gonna hold for a long time (so it will neutralise 1-2 years price fluctuation).
 
Utilities...example: Telcos (Telstra, New Zealand telecom), general utilities (I like MIG but plenty of loan deteriorate its earning, transurban)
Food&bev: ... maybe foster. Lion nathan
Retail:... prone to state of economics. At present looks ok (mining boom, high consumer confidence, spending fuelled by consumer credit, tax cuts, new technology in flat screen TV/digital setop box/IPOD etc.). Their pricing looks very expensive to me e.g. JB hifi PE is 40
 
You may notice that I tend to follow 'cigarette butt'/Graham newman approach. Means ... non trend stock with good PE and good financials. Nobody likes it but if I hold long enough... they eventually becomes somewhat trendy again so their price becomes more attractive (e.g. T3). Research shown that shares with high PE tend to return less than shares with less PE.
 
Bargains...My 'cigarette butt'  stock screen points into these stocks (6/11). Unfortunately all are LPT thus are highly geared...therefore forecasted earning are negative

ASX Code	Company Name	Company Statistics / GICS Industry Group	Price Sensitive / Market Cap.	Price Sensitive / Price/Book Value	Price Sensitive / PER	Price Sensitive / Previous Close	Forecasts / EPS 2 yr. avg. forecast growth	Annual Per Share Statistics / Dividend Yield	Annual Per Share Statistics / Total Franking - Inc. Spec
MIG	Macquarie Infrastructure Group	Transportation	7,812,721,673	1.1	4.61	3.07	-44.90%	5.56%	0.00%
MOF	Macquarie Office Trust	Real Estate	3,023,630,750	0.93	3.06	1.49	-51.20%	6.71%	0.00%
MCW	Macquarie Countrywide Trust	Real Estate	2,610,562,998	0.99	4.96	1.96	-35.50%	7.72%	0.00%
IOF	ING Office Fund	Real Estate	2,038,741,421	0.95	3.27	1.62	-53.50%	6.60%	0.00%
PMV	Premier Investments Limited	Food & Staples Retailing	766,593,427	0.93	1.19	8.5	--	2.06%	100.00%

Cash .....   INGdirect and RaboPlus 6 months deposit is 7.25%. I know ING allows withdrawal of some of the funds without any charge....
 
Regards,
Adhitya

---

Date: Wed, 21 Nov 2007 11:07:54 +1100
From: aji.wid...@gmail.com
To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Ati2 yah

<br

[SPAWN]

JUARA JUARA !!!!
HEBAT2x

udah pernah consider kerja di Bloomberg?

hehehe peace

Darwin

Date: Mon, 19 Nov 2007 21:59:52 +1100
From: aji.wid...@gmail.com
To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Whats going on

Tapi berita bilang index naik, mainly driven by resources and stocks..

 

"The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was 88.5 points higher at 6550.3 , while the All Ordinaries gained 87.2 points to 6613.3 "

 

Win, OXR naik tuh sptnya ;)

 

On 11/19/07, Adhitya G. <adhi...@hotmail.com> wrote:

Biasanya sih market ngikutin US.
Kalau DJ naik, ASX naik... Kalau DJ crash... ASX ikutan.
Election hubungannya nggak langsung, jadi market nggak terlalu factor event ini ke pricing, tapi Liberal lebih favourable ..
Jadi kalo labour menang, mungkin bakal agak turun dikit..

Regards,
Adhitya

> Date: Sun, 18 Nov 2007 21:10:16 -0800
> From: spawnf...@yahoo.com
> Subject: Whats going on
> To: austin...@googlegroups.com

>
>
> Dear investors,
>
> Ada apa yah,kok pasar lagi gak attraktip?
> Dhit emang nya begini ya keadaannya diawal minggu? apa ada hubnya dg election?
>
>
> Darwin
>
>
>
>
> ____________________________________________________________________________________
> Be a better pen pal.
> Text or chat with friends inside Yahoo! Mail. See how. http://overview.mail.yahoo.com/
>
> <br
<br

---

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[Aji Widhiwijaya]

Wah wah Mas, hhmm lebih berat lagi nih komentarnya hehehe... I need to digest it.... ;)

 

Gw masih belajar all the reasons behind P and E (mesti duduk di Borders lbh lama hehe), how all other factors relate to/contribute to the P/E ratios..

So far, gw baru baca2 prinsipnya Mr. BG, be cautious if P/E > 20  Although, ada komentar even suggesting dont go for P/E > 15
 

Tp definitely sih gue pengen coba pick 1-2 healthcare stocks or private hospital operators.

 

On 11/22/07, Adhitya G. <adhi...@hotmail.com> wrote:

Hi Wid,
Great pickup..... Berat deh komentarnya
 
Defensive stock.
Lets start with health care. Eloe khan kerja di bidang itu, kita semua khan punya health insurance...
Health cost soaring is definite, tapi government tax system forces people tuk beli Hospital cover. Jadi they will always have customers... Is just a matter on what is their customer satisfaction, market share growth, their investment policy and so on... They don't borrow from the credit market so profit wont be affected by bank bill rate.
I am a member of NIB and very happy with it. They grew market share more than the market and also have reasonable CF/BS/earning multiplier. I am holding their shares from the IPO and use it as the gauge meter in the insurance sector.
AXA and QBE are quite successful but they are pretty expensive and highly exposed to USD based income.
IAG acquisition failure made them the black sheep of the insurance sector but their pricing could become pretty attractive if the PE hits 12 (now 14 and a bit). Also at dividend yield around 6.1-6.3 percent (100% franked), its equivalent to 8.87% cash rate.. delicious if you gonna hold for a long time (so it will neutralise 1-2 years price fluctuation).
 
Utilities...example: Telcos (Telstra, New Zealand telecom), general utilities (I like MIG but plenty of loan deteriorate its earning, transurban)
Food&bev: ... maybe foster. Lion nathan
Retail:... prone to state of economics. At present looks ok (mining boom, high consumer confidence, spending fuelled by consumer credit, tax cuts, new technology in flat screen TV/digital setop box/IPOD etc.). Their pricing looks very expensive to me e.g. JB hifi PE is 40
 

You may notice that I tend to follow 'cigarette butt'/Graham newman approach. Means ... non trend stock with good PE and good financials. Nobody likes it but if I hold long enough... they eventually becomes somewhat trendy again so their price becomes more attractive ( e.g. T3). Research shown that shares with high PE tend to return less than shares with less PE.