Re: Is this the start of a bear market? (Morgan Stanley Chief Economist asked)

[SPAWN]

Pagi Bozz

Bear market tu apa si... (udah lupa nih)
Wid lo udah mulai beli shares?
Beli share apaan aja ?

----- Original Message ----
From: "aji.wid...@gmail.com" <aji.wid...@gmail.com>
To: AUST Value Investing <austin...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Monday, November 12, 2007 8:29:04 PM
Subject: Is this the start of a bear market? (Morgan Stanley Chief Economist asked)

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[Adhitya G.]

You knock that on the head Wid...
Minack is the guy has a bearish view of the world since two years ago (I still have my notes on his comment at the time).
However, the consensus is US economy will at least slow down and that will have an impact of the companies earning .. Means PE will generally fall.
When this happens, defensive securities prevail: e.g. Infrastructure like MIG, Gold producer like Anglo Gold etc... You wont see their movement to be delicious in the past 6 months but people will still have to drive through M5, M7 etc.. People will buy gold when USD is weakening..
That is a economist view of things. On the micro side... just bear that LPT tend to be highly geared (utangnya banyak bo). Jadi kalo interest rate is heading up, thir profit will also suffer (That is another E decreasing argument)... 
 
Regards,
Adhitya

---

Date: Tue, 13 Nov 2007 09:12:16 +1100
From: aji.wid...@gmail.com
To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Is this the start of a bear market? (Morgan Stanley Chief Economist asked)

Bull vs Bear ...  Kl Bull .. spt skrg ini.. naik terus graphic nya... Kl Bear the opposite ...slump...

Correct me if I'm wrong ;)
 

Belum belum lahh... masih on the sidelines aja, monitoring, reading and more reading...  Kenal dukun gak lo? it might help =P

[SPAWN]

Brarti apakah kl beli itu lebih enak nunggu pas lagi bear market? (pan harganya murah)


Dukun kyknya kurang ampuh laah.
Gw bilang sih yg hebat yaaa Meister Adhit itu...
Mari kita tanyakan ke dia.

Mas, mas kl kita sekarang mau beli, shares apakah yg kira kira cocok buat dibeli oleh para beginner?
(trus udah jadi invest di property blom?)

By the way gw mo comment ttg the recent interest hikes. ".... NAJIS...lama lama bisa tekor nih nombokin."

Darwin

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[SPAWN]

Mas kl pake ngebahas jangan suseh suseh dong bahasanya...gak ngerti nih...otak blom nyampe kesono.

----- Original Message ----
From: Adhitya G. <adhi...@hotmail.com>
To: austin...@googlegroups.com

Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2007 9:37:37 AM
Subject: RE: Is this the start of a bear market? (Morgan Stanley Chief Economist asked)

You knock that on the head Wid...
Minack is the guy has a bearish view of the world since two years ago (I still have my notes on his comment at the time).
However, the consensus is US economy will at least slow down and that will have an impact of the companies earning .. Means PE will generally fall.
When this happens, defensive securities prevail: e.g. Infrastructure like MIG, Gold producer like Anglo Gold etc... You wont see their movement to be delicious in the past 6 months but people will still have to drive through M5, M7 etc.. People will buy gold when USD is weakening..
That is a economist view of things. On the micro side... just bear that LPT tend to be highly geared (utangnya banyak bo). Jadi kalo interest rate is heading up, thir profit will also suffer (That is another E decreasing argument)... 
 
Regards,
Adhitya

---

Date: Tue, 13 Nov 2007 09:12:16 +1100
From: aji.wid...@gmail.com
To: austin...@googlegroups.com

Subject: Re: Is this the start of a bear market? (Morgan Stanley Chief Economist asked)

Bull vs Bear ...  Kl Bull .. spt skrg ini.. naik terus graphic nya... Kl Bear the opposite ...slump...

Correct me if I'm wrong ;)
 

Belum belum lahh... masih on the sidelines aja, monitoring, reading and more reading...  Kenal dukun gak lo? it might help =P

 

On 11/13/07, SPAWN <spawnf...@yahoo.com> wrote:

Pagi Bozz

Bear market tu apa si... (udah lupa nih)
Wid lo udah mulai beli shares?
Beli share apaan aja ?

----- Original Message ----
From: "aji.wid...@gmail.com" <aji.wid...@gmail.com>
To: AUST Value Investing < austin...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Monday, November 12, 2007 8:29:04 PM
Subject: Is this the start of a bear market? (Morgan Stanley Chief Economist asked)





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[Adhitya G.]

Dar,
pas banget loe nanyanya ...
Nggak jadi beli beli gw. Tadinya udah agak yakin, tapi pas ngobrol sama eloe dan temen2 yang laen, kayaknya gw mo keep asset gw agak liquid deh...
Nanti kalo beli, gw mo yang tanahnya banyak aja deh.. Cash flow nombok tapi Insya Allah capital gainnya better .. (Amin dulu deh).
 
Kalo soal shares, bear atau bull khan itu general index movement (harga rata2). Per sahamnya bisa naek2 turun... Contohnya kemaren2 khan market jeblok 2-5%, tapi RIO Tinto malah naik 15% gara2 mo dibeli sama BHP. Telstra juga naek 2%.
Kalo soal tips, gw nggak punya 'Silver Bullet' atau tips yang dijamin untung. Kalo mau tips, lihat aja Huntley's report yang gw post di milist.. itu ada rekomendasinya segala.... Tapi gw udah test lah yang gitu2 kadang2 nggak sesuai sama harapan kita.
Kalo gw biasanya download semua saham2 ASX dan performancenya. Terus gue filter berdasarkan 'stock screenning' formula kesukaan gw ...e.g. PE dibawah 15, PBook ratio dibawah 1.3 etc... terus liat deh annual report, forecastnya analyst2 (misalnya Huntley, Fat Prophet atau Eureka)....kalo perlu bikin forecast sendiri. 
Kalo udah haqul yakin, baru beli.
Gw juga mesti ngaku kalo kadang2 gw beli cuman gara2 PEnya rendah dan feelingnya gw perusahaannya bonafid.... ;-)
 
Liat ini untuk investment process:
http://www.platinum.com.au/images/PA362A_Invest_Proc_AW.pdf
 

Regards,
Adhitya

---

Date: Mon, 12 Nov 2007 15:04:31 -0800
From: spawnf...@yahoo.com

Subject: Re: Is this the start of a bear market? (Morgan Stanley Chief Economist asked)

To: austin...@googlegroups.com

[SPAWN]

Wah ma men,

Tengs tengs.
Dhit, temen kantor gw bilang Equanox (EQN) and Oxiana (OXN) bakal perform. Gw mau nyoba kyknya dg beli those shares and tabcorp. what do you think?
Disini bisa beli pershare apa harus per-Lot? gw denger gak ada restriction katanya.
Tul gak?

Darwin

[SPAWN]

Wah Bos tips yg devensip stok oke punya tuh.tar gw masupin ke watch list dah. Tengs ya buat Pe-Er nya.

Betewe, kl baca mulu kapan mau beli stoknya....mas...? praktek doong praktek, kan teory udah juara....

Darwin

----- Original Message ----
From: Aji Widhiwijaya <aji.wid...@gmail.com>
To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2007 4:33:49 PM
Subject: Re: Is this the start of a bear market? (Morgan Stanley Chief Economist asked)

Quoting Mr. Adhitya:

 "Kalo gw biasanya download semua saham2 ASX dan performancenya. Terus gue filter berdasarkan 'stock screenning' formula kesukaan gw ...e.g. PE dibawah 15, PBook ratio dibawah 1.3 etc... terus liat deh annual report, forecastnya analyst2 (misalnya Huntley, Fat Prophet atau Eureka)....kalo perlu bikin forecast sendiri. Kalo udah haqul yakin, baru   beli ."
 

Agree, fundamental analysis in my view is definitely the way to go, lots of analysis about the financials plus the industry..

 

So far, I only managed to start reading:

- analyst forecasts, to get a grasp of what variables (PE, E, some ratios etc) they usually they use...

- as recommended previously by Mr. Adhit, a couple of pages from 'The Inteligent Investor by Benjamin Graham' ;)

- lots of Australian Financial Review editions

 

Next step, would be to understand fundamental analysis or possibly techniques in stock valuations (which is in itself is a MBA subject hehehe..)

So, long way to go from being an 'inteligent' investor ... ;) 

 

Btw, being in healthcare industry myself ... one of the Huntley reports mentioned about Ramsay Healthcare.. medium risk.. certainly not a booming industry, but could be a defensive stock of to have in your portfolio.. considering hospitals will not dissapear.

 

On 11/13/07, Adhitya G. <adhi...@hotmail.com> wrote:

Dar,
pas banget loe nanyanya ...
Nggak jadi beli beli gw. Tadinya udah agak yakin, tapi pas ngobrol sama eloe dan temen2 yang laen, kayaknya gw mo keep asset gw agak liquid deh...
Nanti kalo beli, gw mo yang tanahnya banyak aja deh.. Cash flow nombok tapi Insya Allah capital gainnya better .. (Amin dulu deh).
 
Kalo soal shares, bear atau bull khan itu general index movement (harga rata2). Per sahamnya bisa naek2 turun... Contohnya kemaren2 khan market jeblok 2-5%, tapi RIO Tinto malah naik 15% gara2 mo dibeli sama BHP. Telstra juga naek 2%.
Kalo soal tips, gw nggak punya 'Silver Bullet' atau tips yang dijamin untung. Kalo mau tips, lihat aja Huntley's report yang gw post di milist.. itu ada rekomendasinya segala.... Tapi gw udah test lah yang gitu2 kadang2 nggak sesuai sama harapan kita.
Kalo gw biasanya download semua saham2 ASX dan performancenya. Terus gue filter berdasarkan 'stock screenning' formula kesukaan gw ...e.g. PE dibawah 15, PBook ratio dibawah 1.3 etc... terus liat deh annual report, forecastnya analyst2 (misalnya Huntley, Fat Prophet atau Eureka)....kalo perlu bikin forecast sendiri. 
Kalo udah haqul yakin, baru beli.
Gw juga mesti ngaku kalo kadang2 gw beli cuman gara2 PEnya rendah dan feelingnya gw perusahaannya bonafid.... ;-)
 
Liat ini untuk investment process:
http://www.platinum.com.au/images/PA362A_Invest_Proc_AW.pdf
 

Regards,
Adhitya

 

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[Adhitya G.]

Hi Dar...
gw unfortunately nggak follow EQN OXR and TAH.
Coba liat rekomendasinya Huntley aja (attached)...Cuman summarynya aja jadi agak simplistic... tapi lumayan khan buat reference.
Good luck with the purchase

Regards,
Adhitya

---

Date: Mon, 12 Nov 2007 19:55:16 -0800

[Adhitya G.]

Bayar sendiri... tax deductible toh?

Regards,
Adhitya

---

Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2007 16:00:48 +1100

From: aji.wid...@gmail.com
To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Is this the start of a bear market? (Morgan Stanley Chief Economist asked)

Mas, kalo boleh tau, punya Huntley subscriptions or dapet free dari CommSec?

 

[Aji Widhiwijaya]

have yet to see, if the Huntley newsletter included in eTrade, is the same.. we can compare once I get access to the account.

 

hhm speaking of tax deductions ;) 

-  any fees associated with investment activities, are tax deductibles ???
- trading costs ??

- managed funds fees ??
 

[Adhitya G.]

Gw lagi nganggur ni jadi jawabnya cepet... ;-)

Pasti Darwin atau Uti sbg orang tax PwC bisa jawab lebih akurat..

 

- any fees associated with investment activities, are tax deductibles ???  => Ya... tapi cuman deductible dari investment income. Jadi nggak dari personal income.
- trading costs ?? => ya.. see point 1

- managed funds fees ?? => entry fee ... ya...see point 1. MER and performance fee ... dont think so. Karena distributed income sudah net of these fees.

Regards,
Adhitya

---

Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2007 16:33:57 +1100

[Aji Widhiwijaya]

Ok thank you, mari nanti kita tanyakan sm the Tax Couple ;)

 

[Pandu Ismoyo]

Guys,

 

Mau nanya dong, enaknya gimana ya kalau mau ngebandingin harga dan outstanding shares or market cap for one sector (BHP etc)? 

 

Regards,

 

Pandu

</html

[Adhitya G.]

Download aja by shares filtered by GIC sector...di comsec ada fasilitas untuk itu. Informasi2 spt PE, price, EPS, forecast juga available...

Regards,
Adhitya

---

From: pandu...@yahoo.com

To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Subject: RE: Is this the start of a bear market? (Morgan Stanley Chief Economist asked)

Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2007 16:44:22 +1100