Market down..

[Aji Widhiwijaya]

 

Walah market lagi jeblok gara2 US inflation warning....   sampe kapan ya??

Good thing is banyak stocks murah....

[SPAWN]

Emang nih....gimana dongs cings..baru naek udah tiarap lagi. MPFT...!!!!
murah si murah teteb aja emang amu diapain kl murah...kalo uang lagi kering..

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[Aji Widhiwijaya]

Iya tul, pas lagi tanggal tua nih..

 

MPFT ?? apa tuh artinya bro..

 

Tapi seru man kalo liat 'Market Depth' ... udah kayak discount di Myer pas boxing day..

Turun terus by the minutes...

 

Apalagi diversified financials aka investment banks (eg MQG) turun terus..

Minggu lalu pas lagi mahal2nya boro2 bisa beli MQG dibawah $80..
 

Monitor terus aja bung, lumayan buat belajar. Keliatan sector mana yg paling gak stabil kl lagi event2 kayak gini..

[Adhitya G.]

Boxing day shopping comes early!
Perasaan gw si ini belom bottom bener deh.
ASX drop 3.42% khan gara2 si Centro nggak bisa extend their overdue borrowing from US market (1.3 B). Mirip kayak RAMS...
Berapa banyak lagi yang kayak begitu ? Babcock Brown, Macquarie, Trans Urban, ABC Learning, James Hardie?
Terahir kali Indonesia Krismon khan gara2 Hutang Swasta in USD... Btw, While Aust Gov has zero debt, Private borrowing is at record high...
 
Anyway, just in case this is the bottom, I am accumulating (beli dikit2) the followings:
- ABC Learning .. Good bargain (bought at 4.9. Was 7 something), US revenues remain 35% of the total income. Acquisition revenue stream yet to hit bottom line. Government policy on additional Childcare rebate will help the Australian demand (which remain 50% of total revenue stream). Liabilities seems to be under control and cash flow is ok. PE is 13.
- IAG... Good bargain (bought at 4.1. Was 6 Something), Who didnt known NRMA, GIO and CGU? Their margin is bad but they are recruiting exec from Promina (owns my fave insurance AAMI) which will turn around the company in 3-5 years. Their revenue forecast looks pretty bad but they would be a safe bet in time like this. PE: 13
 
In the target list:
- Macquarie Bank. While there is no evidence of US loan in their annual report, It seems inevitable that they will in time announce some kind of Sub-prime losses like its peers: UBS, Morgan Stanley, Bear Stearns, Citigroup, Merril Lynch. It should be a good buy after they come clean... (Because it would be cheaper ;-)). Maybe its
- ANZ... Keep coming to 2.25 Dollar please....Current PE 12.7 target PE 10.

Regards,
Adhitya

---

Date: Mon, 17 Dec 2007 14:42:48 +1100
From: aji.wid...@gmail.com
To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Market down..

[Aji Widhiwijaya]

Volatility at its best!! (at least for a dummy investor like me ;)

Ya spt nya belum the end, di AFR hari ini sentiment nya juga begitu, volatile terus sampe first half of 2008...

Bikin jadi susah nih utk value stocks..

 

Gue hoping to closely stick to these sectors= healthcare, consumer staples, insurance and wealth management, telco, banks, industrial services, transport and utilities. Pengen banget nih nambah a couple of growth stocks.

 

Currently on my watchlist and hoping to accumulate (alias masih mikir2 dulu) :

 

>Consumer staples= WES n WOW tapi gak turun2 nihh, considering MTS juga. GFF very cheap but shadowed by rising wheat costs.

>Banks= Sama, gue udah nunggu ANZ sejak Nov hehe.. berapa trigger price nya Mas utk PE 10?

>Insurance and wealth management= Yoi IAG murah bener, tp gw juggling sm QBE nih ;) Plus companies in superannuation industry (AMP or AUW). Superannuation is booming due to recent regulations..

>Industrials= BXB (brambles) boleh juga nih, bisnis nya simple, gue notice hari ini kok malah naik 0.34%.. Berita terakhir ada long-term deal sm Woolies. Tp ada exposure sm US revenues.

>Telco= SingTel or Telstra. Gue kok lean towards SingTel yahh, krn ada exposure sm SE Asian revenues.

 

So far, keliatan bullet-proof nya healthcare, the likes of ResMed, Sonic, Ramsay, CSL and Cochlear. Tapi gak ada yg bargain menurut gue. Healthscope payah nih, takeover nya Symbion gak selesai2 adding to more market sentiments, meanwhile udah turun 5% sejak gue beli

 

Jg lagi mikir2, kalo ASX200 bener2 at the bottom, kayaknya yg gue beli pertama Index Fund (STW) deh utk offset uncertainty
 

[Adhitya G.]

Wid... eloe mo ke Canberra ya bulan April?... Boleh juga mate. Gw tunggu deh...
 
Gw agak kurang napsu sama stock yang PEnya diatas 15. The only one I bought above that is platinum pas IPO... dari 5 dollar sempet jumped to 9 bucks... Gw tahan terus.. eh sekarang 4.9 ....
Moral of the story ... There is a reason why Benjamin Graham is the father of value investing. Better listen to his advice... hehehe
 
With regard to the health care. This is the very reason why I am not into it except for NIB which I received gratisan. With regard to sector strength, itu juga musiman. Sebagai contoh LPT is the darling of the market last year. Its up 33.1 % beating other investment class including shares. With strong dividend yield and PE they are really2 attractive. The only weaknesses is their gearing... Utangnya banyak bo (kayaknya gw repeating myself ya?).... And that very risk factor that spilt their blood on the floor today. I would imagine that Centro would be a good buy by now.... Cuman gw nggak sempet ngecek ni... maklum kerjaan baru...hehehe
 
ANZ beli at 2.25
ABC gw masih accumulate... Gw agak buyes soalnya anak gw lagi pre-school ni... Mahal bener deh pasti profitnya banyak ...;-)

Regards,
Adhitya

---

Date: Mon, 17 Dec 2007 22:06:46 +1100

From: aji.wid...@gmail.com
To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Market down..

[Aji Widhiwijaya]

Yup that's the plan, pas Easter ada tiket murah Tiger..

 

Emang bener sih kata Mr BG, stock investment tuh mesti disiplin dan mostly figthing against your own temptation aja, based on market sentiments and your own biases, which is human nature.. Certainly, happened to newbies like me ;) tp gw driven by learning experience aja, jd gw beli pas not necessarily lagi murah.. So far, wisdom nya Mr.BG banyak terbukti bener, especially over the last couple of days hehe.. Must be prepared for volatility even like a yo-yo..

 

Sayang market agak uncertain which makes my learning experience a bit difficult, especially when it comes to stock selection..

 

Hahh ANZ with PE10 at $2.25, let me repeat, dua dollar ?? wah bakal lama dong penantiannya.. Tp kemaren bank stocks pada bounced back tuhh.. but who knows next year..

 

Ada article di AFR baru2 ini "katanya" DIMIA project agak stretch budget nya gara2 job market di Canbera overheated, krn kontraktor gaji2 nya pada tinggi2....   siapa tuhh ya??? hehehe =P

 

Darwin, gue denger elo jg mau pindah kerjaan baru tahun depan?

[Adhitya G.]

-Ok gw tunggu di sini ya. I'll show you the beauty of Canberra ....
-Koreksi namanya DIAC sekarang. DIMIA sih jamannya Timor2 masih propinsi ke 27 ;-)
- Salah ketik. Harusnya 22.25. Agak big expectation tapi  masih inget jamannya IAG 6 dollar? atau MGQ nyaris 100 dollar?  Atau maybe Centro pas lagi 9-10 dollar?... hehehe
- Just to frame the subject. If ever ANZ hits 22.25, their PE may not be exactly 10... If their share that much, that could be due to (1) bear market (2) Their earning falls temporarily (3) Their earning falls permanently e.g. division sale (4) Their balance sheet deteriorate. I would buy at 22.25 if the reason of the price fall is no 1&2. But not if it is due to no. 3 & 4. 
 
Btw... I am still accumulating IAG & ABC... Cross finger in three years time they came back from the dead.

Regards,
Adhitya

---

Date: Thu, 20 Dec 2007 17:05:48 +1100

From: aji.wid...@gmail.com
To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Market down..

[Adhitya G.]

Guys...
Just in case you are wondering that your shares are currently 'under water'..
Back in 2001. I invest heavily in shares + funds around July-August 2001 thinking that market must have been bottoming out from dot com burst.
You all know what has been happening since ... At a stage after 9/11, my shares + funds were under water for approx 20K.... I have to cut lost on some securities for several thousand bucks and try my luck using instalment strategy (regular investment) on Colonial's funds management product called 'Aust shares gearing' and CSL. These two have been my greatest investment to date with return of a couple of bagger each piece...
What Im trying to say is that ... blessing are normally comes out of dark days if we keep on knocking on the door.
So ... Keep knocking buddy!
 
BTW for share tipping/gossip, you can check out aussie stock forum. You can check shares by company. E.g. Zinifex is on http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2750&page=108
I would use this in addition to my own research.
 
Happy NY.
Adhitya
 
 

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Join Lavalife for free. What are you waiting for?

[Aji Widhiwijaya]

Thanks for the info bro...

 

The market outlook for 2008 is predicted to be more volatile and even single digit return is expected. I hope there will be some value stocks around, or even more price corrections.
 

Happy New Year everyone!
 

[Aji Widhiwijaya]

Btw, when you mentioned CSL, does this refer to CSL the healthcare company?? or another product by Colonial?

On 12/29/07, Adhitya G. <adhi...@hotmail.com> wrote:

[Adhitya G.]

CSL the health care provider ...
Happy NY to you too. May 2008 be a better year for all of us.
 
Whilst you are on the topic of funds management (fm),
With funds management, my experience + reading is to match investment style with market condition.
E.g. Platinum has contrarian value investor style so they tend to not perform during bull. Hower, they thrive during last bear (50% up in 2001).
Colonial, Macquarie, Perpetual rode Bull market well but tend to be more volatile during the last bear (e.g. gear share up 50%, small caps up 30% last year but they have been pretty ordinary in the past 3 months). I kept both Platinum and CFS knowing well that they may not perform in 2008. However, I didn't cash-in except for portfolio rebalance due to unwillingness to share the cap gain with the tax man. It also due to some willingness to take some risks for the potential upside....
 
Funds vs stock pick...personal experience
My experience is that stock pick is as good or could be better than funds management. I am having a ball with RIO's pick back in August bolstering my direct shares return for the past 6 months. RIO's effect on FM is much smaller due to its weighting to the investment basket. The problem is when the money involved is too much, I became a bit too excited (e.g. checking stock price or researching company in the office ;-)). Given that investment hasnt fully replace my consulting income, allocating some of the non cash investment with funds management is making sense. FM is also good if we dont have knowledge nor cheap access to some overseas market (e.g. China) but would like to diversify.
 
Regards,
Adhitya

---

Date: Sun, 30 Dec 2007 23:53:34 +1100

From: aji.wid...@gmail.com
To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Market down..

[Adhitya G.]

O ya before I forget...
Macquarie and some FM baru ngeluarin produk baru yang namanya 'private portfolio mangement'.
Ini kaya FM tapi sharesnya atas nama kita. Jadi kita bisa lihat content dari portfolionya plus kita bisa ngatur strategy investasinya .. e.g. small caps atau health care weighting.
 
Macquarie's product min investment 100K. Menurut gw sih strategy mereka menarik, tapi gw belon invest avoiding over exposure di Aust shares.
http://www.macquarieprivatewealth.com.au/products_services/products.aspx?id=134 

Regards,
Adhitya

---

From: adhi...@hotmail.com
To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Subject: RE: Market down..
Date: Mon, 31 Dec 2007 01:03:49 +1100

</html

[Aji Widhiwijaya]

Speaking of fund management.. It's been on my radar for a while actually... but just not yet sure which one to go with..

 

Having read Platinum PDS, I'm quite attracted with Platinum investment style, ie. being contrarian (staying away from the crowd). I'm considering this in 2008 in order to get some exposures on International equities. Also, they seem to be very persistent in their performance (source: latest edition of Smart Investor). Plus, fees wise, they're quite reasonable.

Also, been reading Colonial PDS.. first impression, just too many options! (multi sector, multi managers etc).. leading to confusion. Although, they offer low initial investment and offer installments options...

 

Macquarie with min. investment 100K, hhmm not just yet :)) but will read the PDS anyway ;)

 

On 12/31/07, Adhitya G. <adhi...@hotmail.com> wrote:

O ya before I forget...
Macquarie and some FM baru ngeluarin produk baru yang namanya 'private portfolio mangement'.
Ini kaya FM tapi sharesnya atas nama kita. Jadi kita bisa lihat content dari portfolionya plus kita bisa ngatur strategy investasinya .. e.g. small caps atau health care weighting.
 
Macquarie's product min investment 100K. Menurut gw sih strategy mereka menarik, tapi gw belon invest avoiding over exposure di Aust shares.
http://www.macquarieprivatewealth.com.au/products_services/products.aspx?id=134 

Regards,
Adhitya

---

From: adhi...@hotmail.com
To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Subject: RE: Market down..
Date: Mon, 31 Dec 2007 01:03:49 +1100

CSL the health care provider ...
Happy NY to you too. May 2008 be a better year for all of us.
 
Whilst you are on the topic of funds management (fm),
With funds management, my experience + reading is to match investment style with market condition.
E.g. Platinum has contrarian value investor style so they tend to not perform during bull. Hower, they thrive during last bear (50% up in 2001).

Colonial, Macquarie, Perpetual rode Bull market well but tend to be more volatile during the last bear ( e.g. gear share up 50%, small caps up 30% last year but they have been pretty ordinary in the past 3 months). I kept both Platinum and CFS knowing well that they may not perform in 2008. However, I didn't cash-in except for portfolio rebalance due to unwillingness to share the cap gain with the tax man. It also due to some willingness to take some risks for the potential upside....

 
Funds vs stock pick...personal experience

My experience is that stock pick is as good or could be better than funds management. I am having a ball with RIO's pick back in August bolstering my direct shares return for the past 6 months. RIO's effect on FM is much smaller due to its weighting to the investment basket. The problem is when the money involved is too much, I became a bit too excited ( e.g. checking stock price or researching company in the office ;-)). Given that investment hasnt fully replace my consulting income, allocating some of the non cash investment with funds management is making sense. FM is also good if we dont have knowledge nor cheap access to some overseas market ( e.g. China) but would like to diversify.
 
Regards,
Adhitya

[Adhitya G.]

- I have Platinum asia and int'l on my portfolio. Platinum Asia has been spectacular throughout but platinum int'l has been pretty flat in the past 2 years. Maybe this is due to their fund size (9 billion A$). I cant tell that they are contrarian since their funds perform superbly in the face of sub-prime losses... Their fund still humming nicely...
- If you are interested in FM, you can see their rating through independent FM rater like morningstar or S&P(ASSIRT)...See www.morningstar.com.au. These rating predict risks, volatility and to some degree potential performance for each funds. Whilst they are not a good predictor, its a good reference point for lay man like you and I.
- Regarding CFS PDS with too many options, that is what they call Wrap. Means that you can invest in many funds manager through one company. Its a good way to diversify without having to deal with many paperwork. I am myself just applying CFS First Choise Personal Super. This way, I can move my super from one FM to another without having to deal with massive paperwork of SMSF.
- Also, watchout for trailing fee that will be paid annually to your FM broker (e.g. comsec or etrade). You can reduce these trailing fee through broker like http://www.investsmart.com.au/ (You can also search funds based on their Morningstar and SP rating)
Aduh gw promosi gratis without being paid ni....


Regards,
Adhitya

---

Date: Mon, 31 Dec 2007 23:15:54 +1100

</html<br

[SPAWN]

Catet cateeet

Wid lo catet gak tuuu tips dan anjuran dari Mas ADhit...
Lo harus praktekin dong biar gak lupa. kalo cuman baca doang ama melongo ngeliatin harga saham gak pinter pinter jadinya

Kan kasian si Adit, dia kan juga manusia, udah ampe sengklek nasehatin kita kita.

Maap ya mas ADit bukannya gw gak mau bayar masalahnya saham gw belom bisa dijual biar bisa praktek. Maklumat soalnya otak baru bisa jalan kl praktek.

Peace man !!!

Darwin

From: adhi...@hotmail.com
To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Subject: RE: Market down..
Date: Mon, 31 Dec 2007 01:03:49 +1100

CSL the health care provider ...
Happy NY to you too. May 2008 be a better year for all of us.
 
Whilst you are on the topic of funds management (fm),
With funds management, my experience + reading is to match investment style with market condition.
E.g. Platinum has contrarian value investor style so they tend to not perform during bull. Hower, they thrive during last bear (50% up in 2001).
Colonial, Macquarie, Perpetual rode Bull market well but tend to be more volatile during the last bear ( e.g. gear share up 50%, small caps up 30% last year but they have been pretty ordinary in the past 3 months). I kept both Platinum and CFS knowing well that they may not perform in 2008. However, I didn't cash-in except for portfolio rebalance due to unwillingness to share the cap gain with the tax man. It also due to some willingness to take some risks for the potential upside....
 
Funds vs stock pick...personal experience
My experience is that stock pick is as good or could be better than funds management. I am having a ball with RIO's pick back in August bolstering my direct shares return for the past 6 months. RIO's effect on FM is much smaller due to its weighting to the investment basket. The problem is when the money involved is too much, I became a bit too excited ( e.g. checking stock price or researching company in the office ;-)). Given that investment hasnt fully replace my consulting income, allocating some of the non cash investment with funds management is making sense. FM is also good if we dont have knowledge nor cheap access to some overseas market ( e.g. China) but would like to diversify.
 
Regards,
Adhitya

Date: Sun, 30 Dec 2007 23:53:34 +1100
From: aji.wid...@gmail.com
To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Market down..

Btw, when you mentioned CSL, does this refer to CSL the healthcare company?? or another product by Colonial?

On 12/29/07, Adhitya G. <adhi...@hotmail.com> wrote:

Guys...
Just in case you are wondering that your shares are currently 'under water'..
Back in 2001. I invest heavily in shares + funds around July-August 2001 thinking that market must have been bottoming out from dot com burst.
You all know what has been happening since ... At a stage after 9/11, my shares + funds were under water for approx 20K.... I have to cut lost on some securities for several thousand bucks and try my luck using instalment strategy (regular investment) on Colonial's funds management product called 'Aust shares gearing' and CSL. These two have been my greatest investment to date with return of a couple of bagger each piece...
What Im trying to say is that ... blessing are normally comes out of dark days if we keep on knocking on the door.
So ... Keep knocking buddy!
 
BTW for share tipping/gossip, you can check out aussie stock forum. You can check shares by company. E.g. Zinifex is on http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2750&page=108
I would use this in addition to my own research.
 
Happy NY.
Adhitya
 

</html<br

---

Never miss a thing. Make Yahoo your homepage.

[Aji Widhiwijaya]

Weiss iya lah dicatet dan gue jadikan 'pedoman dasar' hehe

 

Oh iya lah praktek tentu dong, plus minum Milo dan berlatih setiap hari ;)

Gw beli "dikit2" dulu lah, yg penting jd market participant.. Maklum lah, living on gaji pegawai negri.. ;)

Nah tp the upside jd pegawai negri, during the day bisa trading hahaha ...

 

Btw, mantan presiden kita 'kaya' mendadak tuh, if he's not already (http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/01/01/1198949815530.html )

[Aji Widhiwijaya]

Thanks again for the info..

Yup, already a member of InvestSmart. ;) Pretty good for fund comparison.. Morningstar is a definitive starting point.

 

Another thing attracted me to Platinum, mainly because it's direct (no broker).. and seems very transparent to the customers. Transparency is always positive.. You need to know where your money's going, right?  Btw, PTM share seems like a quite good value :)

[Adhitya G.]

Yeah back to square one for me... Down for couple of hundred bucks on PTM after supposedly 60% gain in few days after IPO.... Well that is life if we dont want to pay tax and has conviction on a company that we invest in ;-) over confidence maybe?

Anyway.. I'am looking at Centro now. Their price is below their book value so it could be a good option even if they went bankrupt.

Regards,
Adhitya

---

Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2008 15:25:14 +1100

From: aji.wid...@gmail.com
To: austin...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Market down..

[Aji Widhiwijaya]

Hmmm, drop semua...

Biggest drop on my portf.. AFG Allco (bought based on supposedly 'bang
on the buck', PE the cheapest among the competitor ie.BNB, MQG).. down
almost 30% (compared to BNB and MQG, around 15% drop). My mistake
no.1, should've stayed away from an underdog.. ;) or div.financials
sector all together..

never stop never give it up, I will look for more ;)

[SPAWN]

Wduuuhh cian de luuu..

 

sabar sabar yah.... ur not the only one. two coys of mine juga tiarap kok.. gw loosing sekitar 20 -30% juga.

But dont despair....freedom is the right of every sentient being ... (loo apeee coba)

tar juga back up lagi optimistik aje alias ngarep !!!

 

Spawner

----- Original Message ----
From: Aji Widhiwijaya <aji.wid...@gmail.com>
To: austin...@googlegroups.com

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