Seidman's Online Insider w/e 11/17/95

[David Smith]

>Approved-By: "Robert D. Seidman" <rob...@CLARK.NET>
>Date: Sat, 18 Nov 1995 13:25:04 -0500
>Reply-To: "Robert D. Seidman" <rob...@clark.net>
>Sender: "In, Around and Online" <ONLI...@eva.dc.LSOFT.COM>
>From: "Robert D. Seidman" <rob...@clark.net>
>Subject: Seidman's Online Insider w/e 11/17/95
>To: Multiple recipients of list ONLINE-L
> <ONLI...@eva.dc.LSOFT.COM>
>
>=============================================================================
> Seidman's Online Insider
>=============================================================================
> Weekly Summary of Major Online Services and Internet Events
>-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>Vol. 2 No. 45 (Formerly known as In, Around and Online) November 17, 1995
>=============================================================================
>
>Copyright (C) 1995 Robert Seidman (rob...@clark.net). All rights reserved.
>May be reproduced in any medium for non-commercial purposes.
>
>
>IN THIS ISSUE
>=============
>-Notes from the Editor
>-Time for CompuServe
>-Internet vs. Microsoft?
>-CompuServe Sniffing Vapor
>-This and That
>-Stock Watch
>-Disclaimer and Subscription Info
>
>
>Notes from the Editor
>=====================
>First: I want to apologize to anyone who has written me and not received a
>response. I do read all my mail, and encourage you to keep sending it --
>even the flames! Unfortunately, I can't respond to it all.
>
>Second: Next week is Thanksgiving, and personally speaking, I am very
>thankful for all the wonderful things that have happened over the last year!
>To celebrate the spirit of thanks, I'm taking the week off from the
>newsletter. But don't despair, I'm in the process of trying to pull together
>some pertinent online info for your reading pleasure in place of next week's
>edition.
>
>Time for CompuServe
>===================
>
>Last week I wrote about the Wall Street Journal piece by Jared Sandberg
>which reported that Time magazine would be jumping ship from AOL to
>CompuServe. This week, Time did just that, leaving AOL and a reported half
>a million dollar deal for CompuServe and a reported "several million dollar"
>deal.
>
>Last week, I pointed out why I felt Time was an important strategic alliance
>for America Online. Apparently though, I didn't state my case well. So
>I'll try to do a better job here.
>
>I feel Time was an important alliance for AOL, but only for one reason.
>Customer acquisition. Period. After that, Time is pretty worthless to AOL.
> Time is content that is created for the print medium and ported over to the
>online medium. While things like message boards, chats, and the Time Daily
>are nice, I don't think they will keep most users coming back again and
>again. Here, service like the Motley Fool win hands down. They've taken
>the online medium and leveraged it to its fullest, doing things that just
>can't be done in print. The Fools run circles around Time when it comes to
>utilization of the online medium.
>
>Still, I maintain that for now, the Motley Fool isn't going to be as big of
>an incentive as Time magazine in the potential new user's mind. Once the
>user signs on though, content like the Fool will do a much better job of
>keeping the users coming back. Why?
>
>It's really pretty simple. The Fools have personality. They ooze
>personality! The content is formed not so much by the news or by editors as
>by the interaction between the Fools and their readers. That is a powerful
>draw.
>
>But staples like Time magazine can play a big part in drawing in new
>subscribers. That's an important component. Apparently it wasn't worth
>"several million" to America Online. Time will tell...
>
>
>
>Internet vs. Microsoft
>======================
>We've heard some of this talk in the past, and now we're starting to hear a
>lot more of it. IBM, Oracle, Sun, Netscape...they're looking to steal some
>of the "beasts" thunder. "Death to the evil empire in Redmond!," must be
>their battle cry.
>
>Today, that's all it is folks, a battle cry. The notion that the Internet
>is going to kill Microsoft anytime soon is ludicrous. Truly.
>
>Before reaching for the "compose" button to send me a letter, notice those
>two very important words up there: "anytime soon". Could it happen? Could
>the Internet destroy Microsoft? Well, stranger things have happened.
>
>*There are Standards, But They're Not Microsoft's*
>
>At center stage in the analysis that Microsoft will be killed by the
>Internet is the issue of standards. Microsoft has done a good job of owning
>the standards. MS-DOS, Windows, etc. Big standards to own. Guaranteed
>revenue generated on most of the IBM compatible PCs sold. Big bucks. But
>standards like TCP/IP or HTTP or HTML, etc. are open standards. So what's
>poor Microsoft to do?
>
>Well, Microsoft could take the Netscape stance, develop a browser and a
>server. Give the browser away and then sell the proprietary server software
>like Netscape. Microsoft will definitely do just that.
>
>Remember, Netscape is in this for the money too. If you don't think they're
>trying to turn their "open standards" browser into a proprietary technology,
>you probably don't believe that the word "gullible" is in the dictionary.
>
>But now along with Netscape, the likes of Sun, Oracle and IBM are looking to
>the future of the Internet in hopes that it will end Microsoft and Intel's
>stranglehold on the desktop. The Internet, along with high bandwidth can
>make operating systems obsolete they say. Disk drives? Who needs them?
>"We'll store everything on the server!" Okay, but how much will you charge
>me to pull it OFF the server? Today almost everything is free. One thing
>we can safely say is that if such plans ever come to fruition, there isn't
>going to be a free lunch. Someone has to pay.
>
>
>
>*The Players*
>
>Netscape, Oracle, Sun and IBM.
>
>*Netscape's Browser Strategy*:
>
>-Build a better browser and develop a NEW STANDARD
>-Widely distribute the browser
>-Keep making the browser better
>-Sell Server Technology
>-Hype the concept
>-Announce Initial Public Offering
>-Make lots of money in stock
>
>Key Strengths: Timing and know-how. Their plan seems to be working
>Key Weaknesses: They aren't Microsoft
>
>Oracles Appliance Strategy:
>
>-Powerful PC's and operating systems and software begin to infringe on
> server market
>-Worry Like Hell
>-Come up with concept to hype
>-Announce plan to build inexpensive ($500) Internet appliance
>-Develop a *NEW STANDARD* for the Operating System for these appliances
>-Hype the hell out of it
>-Hope stock price reacts favorably
>
>Key Strengths: Charismatic speaking, smoke, mirrors.
>Key Weaknesses: How do you build a GOOD $500 dollar Internet appliance?
>
>Seriously, this sounds so good but Netscape on 4 megs of RAM is tough. Okay,
>so they're throwing in 4 megs of Flash RAM, too. Java in its current state
>is inconceivable on anything less than 16 Megs. Oh yeah, we haven't gotten
>to Sun yet.
>
>The appliance may cost $500, but they give you a $50 CPU! What's that, a
>386? Vrooom. Surf with speed, I can hardly wait. What about a nice
>keyboard, Mr. Ellison? Okay, so keyboards are pretty cheap, but it's over
>and above the $500.
>
>What about a nice monitor? Web surfing on a 14" monitor in 640*480? No,
>but thank you very much. Even that monitor is going to cost a couple of
>hundred.
>
>One more thing, what's this business of ATM connections for the appliance?
>High band-width for the masses? We have to love it. Cheap high-bandwidth
>access that is.
>
>Fact is, that for $500 you'll get the equivalent of a slow PC that you need
>to buy add ons for (keyboard, monitor, ATM connection). So what if there's
>no need for a disk drive, disk drives are one peripheral that's gotten very
>inexpensive.
>
>Don't get me wrong, Oracle is doing some other things with regard to Web
>servers that are very cool. However, they're dependent upon Oracle
>databases.
>
>Larry Ellison's idea of the inexpensive Internet appliance is conceptually a
>real winner. For now, reality makes it a pie in the sky vision. Lots of
>money may be invested in building such an appliance, and I suspect, for now,
>it will be as successful as other appliances like AT&T's EOM, Apple's
>Newton, etc. In other words, it will bomb. Bill Gates must be shaking in
>his loafers.
>
>Elision's concept isn't that different from Microsoft's. Ellison wants to
>own the operating system that runs the Internet appliance and believes he
>can provide a good $15 operating system. The thing that's really very nice
>about his vision is that he believes that everyone should always have the
>most current version of an operating system. Don't have it? It's easy, you
>just download it over your high-speed connection. Oh sure, none of that
>exists yet, but that's beside the point. The point? What will Ellison
>charge for the updates, that's the point!
>
>
>*Sun's Java Strategy*
>
>- Create a programming language on minicomputers with lots of memory and
> huge displays connected to T-3's to the Internet and cross their fingers \
> that in all the hype they can create a NEW STANDARD.
>- Laugh at the thought of the language running programs on smaller computers
> with a lot less memory.
>- Push the language on those platforms anyway
>- Pray like hell memory gets a lot less expensive
>- In the hype, sell as many licenses as possible and hope the stock price
> goes up
>
>Key Strengths: Java allows some really neat things to be done on the Web.
>With a Java compatible browser, you can run these "applets". While today,
>the applets I've seen are all Web based, there's no reason why there
>couldn't be a Java browser, a Java spreadsheet program and a Java version
>of America Online. Okay, so I'm kidding about the last one. Maybe.
>
>Key Weaknesses: In its current implementation Java is very memory intensive
>and runs slowly on PC's that don't have more than 8 megs. A good Java
>toolkit will have to be developed that will allow content creators to
>implement Java applets without any knowledge of the program language itself.
> This isn't really a weakness so much as that it hasn't happened yet. If
>Sun can get developers jazzed about Java to the point where there's a ton of
>Java applets out there, and someone builds a front end that allows
>manipulation of HTML and Java, and the performance of Java improves, it
>could be quite successful. The bigger question of how a Java developer will
>securely sell and protect rights to the Java applet is another story...and
>one that won't need to unfold anytime soon.
>
>*IBM's Internet Strategy*
>
>Since I work for IBM, I'm going to avoid this one. Go ahead, call me a
>chicken. I can live with that.
>
>*Oh Yeah?*
>
>While some of my comments here have been tongue-in-cheek, most of them are
>serious. I think Microsoft is currently in a better position than Oracle,
>Sun or Netscape (and even IBM), with regard to the Internet. Oh sure, I
>know what you're thinking: "If that's the case why did the #1 rated PC
>Software analyst Rick Sherlund of Goldman, Sachs & Co., a long-time backer
>of Microsoft, change his rating on Microsoft from "buy" to "moderate
>outperformer"? It's true that Sherlund downgraded Microsoft based on
>concerns leading to a perceived lack of Internet Strategy at Microsoft.
>Earlier this month, Sherlund removed Microsoft from a select group of
>"priority" recommended stocks because he believes Microsoft's growth will
>slow in '97.
>
>According to a report from Reuters, Sherlund cited concerns over the
>Internet and Microsoft's lack of ability to create new standards.
>
>"We believe Microsoft will respond to the challenges of its competitors but
>this is a serious threat to Microsoft's ability to set standards for
>important parts of the industry and we anticipate the upcoming battle will
>pit Microsoft against a coordinated effort by rivals such as Sun
>Microsystems Inc., International Business Machines Corp., Oracle Corp.,
>Netscape Communications Corp., Apple Computer Inc., various phone companies,
>and others who have an interest in undermining Microsoft's position in the
>industry and using the shift to the Internet as an inflection point to push
>new standard," said Sherlund.
>
>I attempted to contact Morgan Stanley analyst, Mary Meeker. Meeker is the
>#2 ("we try harder") rated PC Software analyst, and I was hoping she could
>share some insight. Meeker's greatest hits include Netscape, America Online
>and the prediction that Intuit would bounce back after the Microsoft/Intuit
>merger fell through. Unfortunately, Meeker didn't contact me in time for
>this writing. So, I'll have to take a crack at this myself. I'm probably
>about the #3,821,476,590 rated PC Software analyst, but what the heck.
>
>It's pretty simple, really. It doesn't matter what Microsoft's current
>position is, and it doesn't matter how well they might do with Win 95 and
>Blackbird, their own Internet Explorer browser and whatever else they do
>with the Internet.
>
>It doesn't matter whether Bill "I Got the Internet Religion" Gates has
>instructed Microsoft to consider the Internet implications in all
>development of all products, and it doesn't matter if Microsoft's perceived
>lack of Internet strategy is really lacking anymore than anyone else's
>strategy. It doesn't matter. See, there's this big pool of money. Right
>now, Microsoft has it. Everyone else wants it. And they'll do almost
>anything to get it, including sleeping with their own enemies.
>
>Since Microsoft has the most when it comes to PC Software and operating
>systems, this puts them in the strange position of HAVING THE MOST TO LOSE.
> When you get right down to it, I think that's what Sherlund's recent
>analysis is all about. It is pretty scary when you stop and think about it.
>
>Result of Sherlund's downgrading? Microsoft is down over $9 from last week.
> During COMDEX week no less! Meanwhile, Netscape is up $13 to close the
>week at a whopping $110.50 Okay, Netscape's announcement of a 2-1 stock
>split didn't hurt, but Netscape was up $9.75 on Friday, the day after
>Sherlund's downgrade of
>Microsoft.
>
>The Internet is hot, and as big as Microsoft is, they're not able to get
>their mitts all over it yet. The keyword is "yet". The value of the stock
>is a critical component of Microsoft's success, too. The best and brightest
>minds seem to gravitate, eventually, to where they can make the most money.
>Microsoft has made a lot of its employees millionaires because of how well
>the Microsoft stock has done. If the stock can't continue to blaze, that
>would be very bad. If some other companies stock is doing better, say,
>Netscape or Sun, the best and brightest will gravitate towards those
>companies.
>
>
>
>CompuServe Sniffing the Vapor?
>==============================
>Back in the good ole' summertime, CompuServe announced that it would be
>launching a new service that would be constructed from the bottom up to be a
>service aimed at the non-technical portion of the world. Back then, it
>sounded like they were trying to out AOL, AOL. When I spoke with Michelle
>Moran at the time, they said that the new service, code-named WOW! would
>launch in the spring of '96 and that it would be demo'd at the Fall Comdex.
>When I wrote about it originally in the August 4th issue of "In, Around and
>Online", I hinted that I didn't think they would hit their launch date.
>
>Based on reports coming in from Comdex, I'm quite sure of it.
>
>"They didn't really show the service," said one reader.
>
>"I couldn't really tell what it was," said another.
>
>And from our friends at "Suck" <http://www.suck.com/> and their Friday 11/17
>edition:
>
> "CompuServe had next to nothing
>
> to demo of WOW! at this week's
>
> Comdex beyond a hashed-together
>
> videotape of post-MTV velocity
>
> jump cuts of a couple of icons
>
> matched with breathless
>
> overdubbed narration."
>
>You'll want to read all of the "Suck" piece which basically laughs at
>CompuServe spending thousands of dollars on a market research study so they
>could find out the obvious...
>
>
>
>This and That
>=============
>
>SIMBA, SIMBA, SIMBA: This is one Lion you have to love! I know I plugged
>SIMBAnet <http://www.simbanet.com/> last week, but now I see they have
>archives up. I also see that they haven't posted a new version to America
>Online (though there is a link their to the Web site) since 11/15. FREE!
>--
>
>TIME Inc. Shakes Up Management: Fuchs pushed out, and our old friend,
>Walter "Over 10 Million Hits Served" Isaacson who headed up Time New Media
>(which includes Pathfinder) has taken over as managing editor of the
>flagship Time Inc. product, Time Magazine.
>--
>
>AMERICA ONLINE AND INTUIT announced a strategic agreement to jointly provide
>electronic banking to AOL members, starting in the first half of next year.
>"America Online members will gain instant access to their checking, savings,
>money market and credit card accounts at participating banks and financial
>institutions. They will be able to check their balances, download complete
>account statements, transfer funds, and pay bills -- all electronically
>from within their AOL account," said the press release.
>--
>
>SONY AND VISA announced "a multi-year agreement for the development of a
>first-of-its-kind, multi-faceted entertainment, information and consumer
>transaction environment on the World Wide Web to be called Sony Station.
>The site will incorporate innovative, entertaining new programming within a
>"walk-through" entertainment center in cyberspace for the online
>consumer." <http://www.sony.com/>
>
>This is a sign of the times of shifting away from the online services model
>and going directly to the Internet. For the short term, this seems like a
>foolish move and I'd LOVE to see their business model of how much revenue
>they plan to generate in 96 and 97. They want to cut out the middle man,
>and since all the online services now have access to the web, it doesn't
>seem like a bad move. Today, an online service can do a lot more to bring
>people to a site, but the online services want a piece of the action.
>
>In a story by Reuters, Sony said it selected the Internet over the online
>services "because it's clear that consumer online services are being
>eclipsed by the Internet," according to Jeff Sagansky, a Sony executive vice
>president. "It's really the Internet that we are placing our bets on,"
>Sagansky added.
>
>At the press conference announcing the service, Visa USA President Carl
>Pascarella announced that he expects an end to the stalemate between Visa
>and MasterCard over software standards for conducting transactions over the
>Internet. Visa and MasterCard broke off partnering on standards after Visa
>lined up with Microsoft. MasterCard has partnered with IBM, Netscape and
>GTE among others. But it's an important issue and apparently MasterCard and
>Visa are trying to resolve their differences. Pascarella said that he
>expects a converged standard possibly as early as the first quarter.
>
>"We believe that the convergence of these standards is of the utmost
>importance," Pascarella said. "We are working on a convergence of a
>standard... We want a convergence as quickly as possible."
>--
>
>BON VOYAGE BARRY! Barry F. Berkov, executive vice president of
>CompuServe Incorporated's Information Services Division, is leaving the
>company to pursue other career interests. Berkov, an 18 year CompuServe
>veteran. Look for Berkov to bounce back somewhere else or as a consultant.
>18 years of experience is hard to come by in this industry. Berkov's
>departure adds to a growing list of "long time" CompuServe employees,
>including former president Maury Cox, who have left the fold.
>--
>
>DON'T DOWNLOAD FILES FROM STRANGERS! After months and months of the ain't
>we lucky we've got 'em "Good Times" virus hoax on AOL, the real thing seems
>to have appeared. AOL officials have said that a file called AOL GOLD or
>"install.exe" is circulating both via AOL and the Internet. While reading
>the mail message itself causes no harm, downloading the file and executing
>it could wipe your hard drive.
>--
>
>I'M SCHEDULED to be the guest in ABC's Friday@4ET, on Friday, December 1.
>If you couldn't guess, it will be at 4PM ET in the ABC BETA Cyberplex on
>America Online. Keyword: ABCBETA . I hope to see some of you there!
>--
>
>See you the week after next week! Happy Thanksgiving!
>
>Stock Watch
>===========
>All hail Netscape & not a bad week for Mr. Sidgemore and the gang at UUNET.
>New this week: Sun Microsystems, Oracle .
>
>
> This Last 52 52
> Week's Week's Week Week
>Company Ticker Close Close High Low
>------- ------ ------ ------ ------- -------
>@Net Index IIX $245.34 $255.31 $259.85 $185.76
>America Online AMER $78.25 $81.63 $88.50 $16.69
>Apple AAPL $40.13 $39.75 $50.94 $33.63
>AT&T T $65.38 $63.00 $66.38 $47.25
>Bolt,Beranek & Newman BBN $36.00 $38.50 $40.00 $12.63
>FTP Software FTPS $30.13 $33.00 $35.50 $20.25
>General Elec. GE $67.00 $65.63 $67.00 $45.38
>H&R Block HRB $46.63 $46.63 $47.75 $33.00
>IBM IBM $95.13 $97.38 $114.63 $68.00
>MCI MCIC $26.13 $25.38 $27.13 $17.25
>Mecklermedia Corp. MECK $12.88 $16.00 $24.38 $ 2.13
>Microsoft MSFT $87.38 $96.88 $109.25 $58.25
>Netcom NETC $79.50 $79.00 $91.50 $16.75
>Netscape Comm. Corp NSCP $110.50 $97.50 $110.50 $45.75
>NetManage NETM $23.13 $22.75 $27.25 $12.25
>News Corp. NWS $19.38 $19.25 $25.13 $14.38
>Oracle Corp. ORCL $48.13 $ $48.25 $24.66
>Performance Syst. Intl PSIX $20.50 $20.81 $25.50 $12.00
>Sears S $39.38 $38.63 $40.00 $21.50
>Spyglass Inc. SPYG $100.50 $92.00 $100.50 $26.50
>Sun Microsystems SUNW $87.50 $ $94.75 $29.88
>UUNET Technologies UUNT $91.50 $72.50 $91.50 $21.75
>
>
>Disclaimer
>==========
>I began writing this newsletter in September 1994, at the time I
>was working for a technology company that is now owned by MCI.
>In March, I began working for International Business Machines
>Corporation. As of July, my management has agreed to allow me
>to do some work on the newsletter during business hours (probably
>about 6-8 hours a week). I speak for myself and not for IBM.
>
>
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>
David Smith * "We truly believe that even though we live in an
evil
bla...@bga.com * world, if you can stand up with a stronger
will, then you
President, EFF-Austin * can't be beaten down. This is the true spirit
of the
Board of Directors, CTCLU * EFF-Austin member" -- John Woo