Re: NOAA says La Nina is here (pretty much)

[Byker]

> <https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/october-2021-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-here>
>
> Our second-year La Niña has materialized, as indicated by the ocean and
> atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. There's an 87% chance of La Niña this
> winter, the season when North American weather and climate are most
> affected
> by ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the entire El Niño/La Niña system).
>
> [The article has a nice flowchart describing how the NOAA
> decide whether La Nina conditions are present, the first time
> I've seen it flow-charted! :)].

If no one told you about "La Niña", would you even notice it?

[M I Wakefield]

Depends where you live. A little milder in the South, but the Pacific
Northwest is in for a very wet winter.

[Rod Speed]

Byker <byker@do~rag.net> wrote

We certainly do. We are now half way thru the fucking spring and
are still stuck with winter weather.

[R Kym Horsell]

In alt.global-warming Rod Speed <rod.sp...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Byker <byker@do~rag.net> wrote
>>> <https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/october-2021-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-here>

>>> Our second-year La Ni~na has materialized, as indicated by the ocean and
>>> atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. There's an 87% chance of La Ni~na this

>>> winter, the season when North American weather and climate are most
>>> affected

>>> by ENSO (El Ni~no/Southern Oscillation, the entire El Ni~no/La Ni~na

>>> system).
>>> [The article has a nice flowchart describing how the NOAA
>>> decide whether La Nina conditions are present, the first time
>>> I've seen it flow-charted! :)].

>> If no one told you about "La Ni~na", would you even notice it?

> We certainly do. We are now half way thru the fucking spring and
> are still stuck with winter weather.

WOrld, forgib Wodley.
Loads of rain (not to mention the odd tornado) is summer weather for
Australia, like most places.

Avg monthly rainfall for QLD AUS (mm):
J F M A M J J A S O N D Ann
159.6 158.3 140.7 92.5 73.7 67.8 56.5 45.9 45.7 75.4 97.0 133.3 1148.8
^^^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^
(AUS summer rain)

<http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_040214.shtml>

--
We'll build a world of our own, that no one else will share
All our sorrows we'll leave far be-hind us there
And I know that you'll find, there'll be peace of mind
When we live in a world of our own
-- "World of Our Own", (Tom) Springfield Music, May 1965

[Rod Speed]

R Kym Horsell <k...@kymhorsell.com> wrote

Irrelevant to what was being discussed, if we notice La Nina without being
told that its happening.

[R Kym Horsell]

In alt.global-warming Rod Speed <rod.sp...@gmail.com> wrote:

The scientix an newspapers is all wrong and Da Wodster is right as usual!

--
[Spring 2021!]
["Real winter weather" to hillbillies:]
More storms, heavy rain, hail set to hit south-east Queensland amid severe
thunderstorm warning
ABC News, 14 Oct 2021 21:23Z
South-east Queenslanders are told to expect more wild weather today, with
severe thunderstorms expected to bring damaging winds, heavy rain and large
hail.

Tornado tears off rooftops as severe weather warnings remain in place in
eastern Australia
ABC News, 14 Oct 2021 21:23Z
Vehicles were turned over and roofs were torn from houses after a tornado
was seen forming over a northern New South Wales town late last night.

BOM declares La Ni?a alert as the east braces for storms this week
ABC Weather, 12 Oct 2021 05:19Z
Central Australia and parts of Queensland have already received a deluge
this week, and more wild weather is on the way for the south-east in what's
shaping up to be a soggy season.

[Rod Speed]

They are in fact saying what I said, fuckwit.

We clearly do noticed that stuff without being told its La Nina, fuckwit.

[R Kym Horsell]

In alt.global-warming Rod Speed <rod.sp...@gmail.com> wrote:
> R Kym Horsell <k...@kymhorsell.com> wrote
>> Rod Speed <rod.sp...@gmail.com> wrote
>>> R Kym Horsell <k...@kymhorsell.com> wrote
>>>> Rod Speed <rod.sp...@gmail.com> wrote
>>>>> Byker <byker@do~rag.net> wrote
>>>>>>> <https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/october-2021-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-here>
>>>>>>> Our second-year La Ni~na has materialized, as indicated by the ocean
>>>>>>> and
>>>>>>> atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. There's an 87% chance of La Ni~na
>>>>>>> this
>>>>>>> winter, the season when North American weather and climate are most
>>>>>>> affected
>>>>>>> by ENSO (El Ni~no/Southern Oscillation, the entire El Ni~no/La Ni~na
>>>>>>> system).
>>>>>>> [The article has a nice flowchart describing how the NOAA
>>>>>>> decide whether La Nina conditions are present, the first time
>>>>>>> I've seen it flow-charted! :)].
>>>>>> If no one told you about "La Ni~na", would you even notice it?
>>>>> We certainly do. We are now half way thru the fucking spring and
>>>>> are still stuck with winter weather.

****************************************

>>>> WOrld, forgib Wodley.
>>>> Loads of rain (not to mention the odd tornado) is summer weather for
>>>> Australia, like most places.
>>>> Avg monthly rainfall for QLD AUS (mm):
>>>> J F M A M J J A S O N D Ann
>>>> 159.6 158.3 140.7 92.5 73.7 67.8 56.5 45.9 45.7 75.4 97.0 133.3 1148.8
>>>> ^^^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^
>>>> (AUS summer rain)
>>>> <http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_040214.shtml>
>>> Irrelevant to what was being discussed, if we notice La Nina without
>>> being
>>> told that its happening.
>> The scientix an newspapers is all wrong and Da Wodster is right as usual!
> They are in fact saying what I said, fuckwit.

They are not saying "we are stuck in winter".
That is all you.

> We clearly do noticed that stuff without being told its La Nina, fuckwit.

You have yet to show you have an idea how a La Nina is defined.

>> --
>> [Spring 2021!]
>> ["Real winter weather" to hillbillies:]
>> More storms, heavy rain, hail set to hit south-east Queensland amid severe
>> thunderstorm warning
>> ABC News, 14 Oct 2021 21:23Z
>> South-east Queenslanders are told to expect more wild weather today, with
>> severe thunderstorms expected to bring damaging winds, heavy rain and
>> large
>> hail.
>> Tornado tears off rooftops as severe weather warnings remain in place in
>> eastern Australia
>> ABC News, 14 Oct 2021 21:23Z
>> Vehicles were turned over and roofs were torn from houses after a tornado
>> was seen forming over a northern New South Wales town late last night.
>> BOM declares La Ni?a alert as the east braces for storms this week
>> ABC Weather, 12 Oct 2021 05:19Z
>> Central Australia and parts of Queensland have already received a deluge
>> this week, and more wild weather is on the way for the south-east in
>> what's
>> shaping up to be a soggy season.

[wotawonderfulworld]

M I Wakefield <no...@present.com> wrote in
news:s2fmmg5k9mq3dvihh...@4ax.com:

Yeap, ask any farmer.

[Rod Speed]

I didn’t say we are stuck in winter forever, fuckwit.

> That is all you.

Wrong, as always. They are clearly saying
we are having a burst of winter, fuckwit.

>> We clearly do noticed that stuff without being told its La Nina, fuckwit.

> You have yet to show you have an idea how a La Nina is defined.

You never could bullshit your way out of a wet paper bag.

[R Kym Horsell]

In alt.global-warming Rod Speed <rod.sp...@gmail.com> wrote:
> R Kym Horsell <k...@kymhorsell.com> wrote
>> Rod Speed <rod.sp...@gmail.com> wrote

...

>
>> You have yet to show you have an idea how a La Nina is defined.
> You never could bullshit your way out of a wet paper bag.

Obvious projection.

Since you've confused the effect of the SAM (that just happens
to be cooling S Aus around now) with the La Nina (that warms AUS
at this time of year) you are only talking about yourself again.

--
[Competence Theory 101:]
Kruger and Dunning argue that for a given skill, incompetent people will:
1. tend to overestimate their own level of skill;
2. fail to recognize genuine skill in others;
3. fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy;
4. recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill, only if
they can be trained to substantially improve [their own performance].

Dunning later drew an analogy with anosognosia in which a person who
suffers a physical disability because of brain injury seems unaware of
or denies the existence of the disability, even for dramatic
impairments such as blindness or paralysis.

Dunning & Kruger & others concluded that the root cause is that, in
contrast to high performers, "poor performers do not learn from
feedback suggesting a need to improve".

Ehrlinger, Joyce; Johnson, Kerri; Banner, Matthew; Dunning, David;
Kruger, Justin (2008). "Why the unskilled are unaware: Further
explorations of (absent) self-insight among the incompetent".
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 105 (105): 98-121.

[Rod Speed]

R Kym Horsell <k...@kymhorsell.com> spewed just
the mindless shit and lies that’s all it can ever manage.

[R Kym Horsell]

In alt.global-warming Rod Speed <rod.sp...@gmail.com> wrote:

> R Kym Horsell <k...@kymhorsell.com> spewed just
> the mindless shit and lies that's all it can ever manage.

LOL. Wods traditional admission of defeat.

I'll leave you to ride herd on your hard vacuum of
STEM ignorance over there in AUS.POL.

[Rod Speed]

[banerjee...@gmail.com]

On the other hand, the privileged status quoists and various timid stupid lots chant Dunning-Kruger like a magic charm to ward off the challenges of original and upsetting genius.
Useful sounds, for them, this Dunning-Kruger.