the attitude with arnie arnesen the Wed edition March 11
Arnie Arnesen
They’re corrupt and cruel and craven,
But they’re also strangely dumb.
They may well be fine with mayhem,
But should still heed rules of thumb!
For example, if you were planning
With Iran to go to war,
You’d think about Americans
On distant Mid-East shores.
But no! They told these misplaced folks,
“Evacuate at once!”
And then they said they couldn’t help!
We’ve a government of dunces!
And, of course, you would anticipate
If your thoughts were at all clear—
That Iran might well retaliate,
Against the US Near.
But no! Imbecilic Kash Patel,
Just before we dropped the bombs,
Fired the CT experts
Who were focused on Iran!
And you should think, before you bomb,
About your ends and means.
Destroy Iran or help her folks?
Depends how Donald leans?
And, in fact, these guys are following
No civilian-saving rules.
They just go and drop their bombs
On hospitals and schools.
If there’s method to their madness,
It surely isn’t clear.
But it is clear they’re destroying
Every virtue we hold dear.
Ian Bremmer Eurasia Group
there's also the potential of civil war in iran. that's a low-level scenario presently but will grow in likelihood as the war continues. the islamic republic was already in a precarious state before the war: with tehran's freshwater reservoirs at barely 10% capacity (and the iranian president warning that the capital might need to be evacuated), massive domestic electricity shortfalls, irreversible aquifer subsidence in major cities, and 19 iranian provinces in severe drought. the war has now added destruction of industrial infrastructure to a country whose civilian systems were already failing—and the shipping blockade is cutting off the supply chains needed to avoid a collapse. add to that the potential for broader proxy war inside iran—as discussed, the kurds in the west, azeris in the northwest, arab khuzestan on the iraq border, baluchs bordering with pakistan in the southeast, many of whom would have support from the united states and israel. the potential for a broader proxy war spilling across the region would be serious in that scenario, with massive refugee and arms flows into turkey, pakistan, and afghanistan.
D. ARNIE ARNESEN
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