the attitude with arnie arnesen the wed edition April 8

0 views
Skip to first unread message

Arnie Arnesen

unread,
Apr 7, 2026, 6:59:29 PMApr 7
to AttitudeArnieArnesen

--the attitude with arnie arnesen
opening thoughts:  Lyn Ekedahl poem corrupt pam bondi
producers: Dave Scott and Stephanie Collins
Chloé LaCasse (the best of the attitude)
streaming live at wnhnfm.org noon EST on the dial-94.7FM Concord NH

opening thoughts:
Corrupt Pam Bondi
Though Don has dumped corrupt Pam Bondi,
There’s no time to rejoice.
For though well rid of vicious blondie,
Trump just makes another choice!

He surely hopes that his next pick
Will do a better job
Of destroying those who make him sick.
That’s the heart of Donald’s Mob.

His knives are out for Comey, James,
Jack Smith and Lisa Cook.
He’s given DOJ His List.
It knows where to look!

Their problem’s in our System Legal,
The only pillar left
That still resists Don’s System Regal.
Of others we’re bereft!

So whether Blanche or someone worse,
There’s one thing that we know—
If he can’t fulfill the Donald’s curse,
He’ll be the next to go!

The day before the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28, more than 150 accounts on Polymarket correctly bet it would happen on that specific date. At least six newly created wallets collectively earned approximately $1.2 million after buying contracts at prices as low as 10 cents. One account with the handle “magamyman” placed its first trade 71 minutes before news of the attack broke, when the market was pricing the probability at 17%. By the time the smoke cleared over Tehran, “magamyman” had turned $87,000 into $553,000. Another user netted $2.14 million across multiple contracts tied to the same strikes. Last week, a cluster of new accounts placed large bets on a ceasefire by late March or mid-April minutes before President Donald Trump posted about the “very good and productive conversations” between the US and Iran, gaining over $300,000 in unrealized value the moment his Truth Social announcement dropped. Two months earlier, an anonymous account had turned $38,500 into $485,000 betting on the capture of Nicolas Maduro, with its largest positions placed hours before the covert operation became public.

In any other context, these people would be investigated, prosecuted, and punished. In the booming world of prediction markets, it’s just business as usual.

I’ve been watching this industry closely for years, and I’ve come to believe that it’s more corrosive for public life than even social media. In theory, prediction markets have genuine benefits – for information aggregation, price discovery, hedging – but these are bounded by a narrow set of conditions that political event contracts systematically fail to satisfy, and they are outweighed by the far higher costs they impose on society.

The Iran and Maduro insider-trading cases aren’t isolated incidents. The most comprehensive empirical study yet of so-called “informed” trading on Polymarket, covering more than 93,000 markets and nearly 50,000 unique wallets, found suspicious trading pairs achieving a 69.9% win rate – more than 60 standard deviations above random chance – with $143 million in anomalous profits over two years. And this almost certainly understates the problem. Skilled forecasters outperform the market, but they don’t outperform it by that much, on accounts opened days before a single event, with their largest positions placed hours before covert operations go public....insider trading, serious as it is, is actually the more tractable problem. The deeper issue is what happens when insiders can bet on an outcome they have some ability to influence. A military commander choosing to retreat a day early to quadruple a month’s salary. A diplomat betting on the success or failure of the ceasefire talks he’s leading. An intelligence analyst front-running his own assessment. An elected official making public statements or public policy based on what outcome yields them highest payoff. A journalist reporting not what happened, but whatever makes him richer … or safer. These aren’t edge cases or hypotheticals. They’re the structural consequence of financializing decisions that are supposed to be insulated from market incentives. When people can profit from outcomes they can shape, prediction markets don’t surface truth as much as they create systematic incentives to corrupt it … and the people and processes that determine what counts as such.

part one:  Dylan Gyauch-Lewis is a senior researcher at the Revolving Door Project. 

Dispatches From Trump’s War on Information Inside the administration’s mishandling of economic data and erosion of trust in federal statistics  https://prospect.org/2026/04/02/dispatches-from-trumps-war-on-information-bls/

part two: Laura Belin is the publisher, editor, and primary reporter for Bleeding Heartland, a community website focused on Iowa politics. She is also the Statehouse reporter for KHOI Radio in Ames and co-host of the station's "Capitol Week" program, as well as a member of the Iowa Writers' Collaborative. 

Competitive Senate primary between Turek and Wahls
Scrambled Republican field for governor
Very endangered GOP incumbents in IA-01 and IA-03, plus a competitive (in my opinion) open seat race in IA-02

Republicans negotiating over a lot of terrible legislation, as usual. Also rolled back local civil rights protections for trans people.

Iowa bill to cover childcare costs for daycare workers awaiting governor’s signature


A Veterans’ Group Jumps In for a Democrat in an Iowa Senate Race VoteVets is the first super PAC to intervene in the race for Josh Turek, a state legislator who was born with spina bifida after his father was exposed to Agent Orange in Vietnam. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/us/politics/iowa-senate-democrat-veterans.html

Iowa can restrict LGBTQ+ books and topics at schools, appellate court rules

Ruling, vacating lower court’s temporary block, applies to classrooms and libraries up to sixth grade https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/06/iowa-lgbtq-book-ban-schools



--
KEEPING THE POT STIRRED SO SCUM DOESN'T RISE TO THE TOP -  Anonymous 

D. ARNIE ARNESEN
15 Rumford Street
Concord NH 03301
nha...@gmail.com
(C) 603-321-7654

Host of "The Attitude with Arnie Arnesen"
Award Winning Public Affairs Show (NHAB 2018)
airs noon to 1pm and 7pm EST M-F at 94.7FM (concord nh)
Home Station - wnhnfm.org
Part of the Pacifica Network
go to wnhnfm.org for streaming live 

Arnie on the Air
Boston, MA-WGBH Under the Radar/Sunday Nights
Keene, NH-WKBK Friday Morning with Dan Mitchell


Reply all
Reply to author
Forward
0 new messages