Thanks again, Dustin. I'll look up that reference.
By "variance", what I actually mean is the variance when I compare the centroids found by one program, compared to another. The other programs have similar differences, but Astrometry.net is about 3x the difference. This means that the other program are using similar algorithms, while Astrometry.net apparently uses something different. Based on your quadratic curve description, I was right. It should be pretty close to a gaussian fit, but the commercial programs use proprietary algorithms.
My next step is to compare two images taken a minute apart. The telescope was tracked, but small differences in turbulence and precise centering moved the stars between images. Using one program I found the shift between the images was 1.015 pixel (2.1 arcsec), small enough to ignore distortion. Using a second program, the difference was1.005 pixel. The scatter in the differences is a good measure of the centroid accuracy. For both programs, I get RMS errors of 0.19 arcsec. The differences between individual data points, however, shows an RMS of 0.1 arcsec. This will be repeated for Astrometry.net and another program.
By bottom line is that I really need very good centroid measurements. Once I get those, then my next task will be to compare with star positions (waiting patiently for Gaia, using URAT1 in the meantime). I'm also planning on measuring the pixel phase error, but for now, I simply need to find a good program that gives me precise centroids.
Don