Energy news digest
Jeremy Wakeford
Greetings, Here is a digest of energy news items from Charlie Hall (doyen of EROEI). Check out the comments by Chris Skrebowski on declining world oil exports.
-------- Original Message --------
| Subject: | ELS: Dr. Colin J. Campbell discusses changes in world energy supplies...Amazing NASA Video |
|---|---|
| Date: | Tue, 5 Jun 2012 00:35:32 +0000 |
| From: | Charles A. Hall <ch...@esf.edu> |
| CC: | Egan Waggoner <egan.w...@gmail.com> |
I have a new master’s student working on Bakken oil. If you have any inside dope please let me and Egan know.
Well now that $105 oil has done its destructive path across Western and maybe Eastern economies maybe we can have a recovery? Or is $85 a barrel still too much for economies to bear.
Not a lot of real exciting news on the energy front but supposedly Iraq is up, Saudi Arabia is up and Libya is back to pre war levels. But what is down?
Here are some comments from a month ago by Chris Skrebowski :
Hi All,
We really do seem to be in a very strange place. Assertion
appears to triumph over facts or information. The greater the
nonsense the greater the enthusiasm to publish it. Of course
we're all sick of bad news but going off into Lala land isn't
going to help.
Now whether this is herd behaviour -- my cornucopian vision is
better and brighter than yours, or whether it is more
orchestrated denial is really not clear. But, for those still
interested I offer the following boring facts.
(I've been working on net exports in much the same way as Jeff
using BP stats but have been looking at what has happened since
2005):
There were 32 net oil exporters in 2005 now there are 28.
Between 2005 and 2010 net oil exports fell by 3.4 million b/d
which of course is why oil prices doubled. [Production matters
less than net exports because price is determined by the
availability of net exports and the competition for them]
Even after increasing production by 1mn b/d in 2011 and a
further 650,000 b/d in 1Q2012 SAUDI IS STILL EXPORTING
LESS OIL THAN IT DID IN 2005
Only 3 OPEC countries increased net exports between 2005 and
2010 -- Iraq, Angola and Qatar.
Iran had a smaller decline in net exports than Saudi, the UAE
and Kuwait in the 2005-2010 period.
One last boring fact. Between 2005 and 2010 oil demand outside
Europe and the US increased by 6mn b/d but supply --
crude/NGLs/biofuels/old socks etc -- increased by only 3mn b/d
and the tiresome requirement for supply and demand to balance
was met by a 3mn b/d reduction in demand in Europe and the US.
So as you can see there really isn't the slightest problem in
sight but just in case, you should try and get some of whatever
the Cornucopians are currently smoking.
Cheers
Chris
PS the current global consumption rate is just under 32 billion
barrels/year. At that rate the 400 billion barrels of
'technically recoverable oil' (see the oil pyramid) lasts 12.12
years
Subject: Dr. Colin J. Campbell discusses changes in world energy supplies
[ a 39-minute video ]
[[[ Please forgive the bullsh*t ad that you have to sit through to get to the
video and the transparent google ads that will pop up and stay until you
close them.
If any of you are not aware of who Colin Campbell is, take a look at this
I count him among my most important teachers.]]]
----- Forwarded Message -----
From: Walter Ryan-Purcell <wal...@localcampus.com>
Sent: Saturday, June 2, 2012 7:39 AM
Subject: Dr. Colin J. Campbell on world oil supplies
In this video Dr. Colin J. Campbell disdusses world oil supplies and the consequences of Peak Oil. This is the first in a series from the New Energy Era Forum held in West Cork, Ireland recently. Here is the link http://www.localcampus.com/Regions/Europe/Ireland/Videos/New_Energy_Era_Forum_2012/Video_Index.html
best regards,
Walter Ryan-Purcell,
Local Campus - working towards a realistic future.
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May 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Department on Wednesday announced a breakthrough
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/02/usa-natgas-hydrates-idUSL1E8G1OE620120502
May 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Department on Wednesday announced a breakthrough in research into tapping a possibly vast fuel resource that could eventually bolster already massive U.S. natural gas reserves.
By injecting a mixture of carbon dioxide and nitrogen into a methane hydrate formation on Alaska's North Slope, the department was able to produce a steady flow of natural gas in the first field test of this method.
Methane hydrates are ice crystal-like structures that contain natural gas. The hydrates are located under the Arctic permafrost and in ocean sediments along the continental shelf.
Still, the department said it will likely be years before production of methane hydrates becomes economically viable.
"While this is just the beginning, this research could potentially yield significant new supplies of natural gas," Energy Secretary Steven Chu said in a statement.
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With Congress seeming to have abandoned the clean energy sector, American companies are fighting for capital, and survival. Others are moving in.
In our new report, "Fire Sale: The End of American Ownership of Clean Energy," Third Way has found that this capital hole is beginning to be filled by funds from outside the United States. Chinese investment in the U.S. market jumped 130% in 2011 and a French company took control of the second-largest U.S. solar panel maker. Foreign investment in American clean energy is a great sign for the sector, jobs, and tax revenues. We support it. But we do not want the U.S to lose entirely our leadership in the clean energy sector and see domestic companies competing in a $2.3 trillion global market disappear.
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Lots of coal???
Dear Charles,
maybe this could be something for your energy serve list:
A colleague of mine and myself, we published recently a paper about peak coal.
If interested, you may find the open-access link to download the paper (free of charge) from the Open Journal of Geology:
http://www.scirp.org/Journal/Home.aspx?IssueID=1630
The citation:
Thielemann, T. & Schiffer, H.-W. (2012): Why there will be no peak coal in the foreseeable future. – Open Journal of Geology, Vol. 2 (2012), No. 2, pages 57-64. doi:10.4236/ojg.2012.22006
Kind regards,
Thomas
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Amazing video!!!!
http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap120305.html
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Berman on Chesapeake:
appearance on CBS Nightly News on 11 May 2012: http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7408270n&tag=contentMain;contentBody
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Summary: We discuss and reconcile two
diametrically opposed views concerning the future of
world oil production and prices. The geological view
expects that physical constraints will dominate the
future evolution of oil output and prices. It is
supported by the fact that world oil production has
plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices,
and that spare capacity has been near historic lows. The
technological view of oil expects that higher oil prices
must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by
encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by
the fact that high prices have, since 2003, led to
upward revisions in production forecasts based on a
purely geological view. We present a nonlinear
econometric model of the world oil market that
encompasses both views. The model performs far better
than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices
and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for
a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming
decade. The error bands are wide, and reflect sharply
differing judgments on ultimately recoverable reserves,
and on future price elasticities of oil demand and
supply.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25884
-- Jeremy Wakeford Chairperson Association for the Study of Peak Oil - South Africa Tel.: +27 (0)28 722 1115 Cell: +27 (0)71 210 8204 Fax: +27 (0)86 624 8646 Skype: Jeremy.Wakeford www.aspo.org.za