The gambling websites
called "prediction
markets" had never
really interested me.
These sites, including
prominent companies
like Polymarket and
Kalshi, have become
popular, allowing
people to bet on
everything
from who will win the
World Cup to Taylor
Swift’s wedding guest
list. I lumped them
into the same general
category as other
modern bro-y buzzwords
— crypto, meme-coin,
DraftKings — and never
imagined how these
platforms might
actually intersect
with the environment
in fascinating and
even alarming ways.
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Then, almost a year
and a half ago now, I
read a piece by Bill
Shaikin, a
sportswriter for the
Los Angeles Times.
Shaikin penned an essay arguing that Polymarket "shouldn’t
allow people to profit
by betting on the L.A.
firestorm." That this
was happening
surprised me, and I
tucked the factoid
away. Another story,
in Aeon Magazine, revealed that people spent
$1.2 million on
Polymarket during the
Los Angeles fires,
betting on questions
specifically about
them.
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A
home is burned by the
Eaton Fire in the
Altadena area of Los
Angeles County,
California, on January
8, 2025.
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Fire survivors say
using prediction
markets to gamble on
wildfire is "morally
reprehensible."
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I needed to learn
more. So, I started
reporting out what
would become my June
29 story, "Will betting on wildfires lead to arson?" I
spoke with wildfire
survivors who said
they were disgusted
that people were
gambling on their
lives and the fate of
their communities.
(The LA fires killed
31 people and
destroyed more than
16,000 structures.)
One survivor said
prediction market
betting was salt in
the wound. She felt
like Southern
California Edison —
the utility company
whose infrastructure
sparked the Eaton Fire
— had already gambled
with her life.
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My reporting
convinced me that
viewing wildfires as
entertainment or for
profit has dangerous
consequences.
Gamifying something
deadly and profiting
off an event that
destroys communities
does not sit right
with me. I’ll be
curious to see if the
next megafire that
captures national
attention is open for
wagers, or whether
platforms, states or
the federal government
will eventually decide
the risks aren’t worth
the rewards.
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Ethicists told me
that gambling on fatal
disasters devalues
human life and likely
incentivizes arson. I
struggled to find
anyone who bet on
wildfires who was
willing to speak with
me. Meanwhile, I was
the first to report on
a California-specific
wildfire prediction
market site called
Wyldfyre. The site
went offline briefly
after our reporting,
then returned with new
terms of service,
contact information
and a disclaimer
saying that it was
"not an emergency
information source."
Instead of money, it
currently uses virtual
points with no
monetary value.
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Cal
Fire photo from the
Palisades Fire burning
on January 8, 2025, and
screenshots from Kalshi
user interface.
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The story has since
taken a life of its
own. It’s been
re-published by
outlets including
WIRED, Slate, the
Durango Heraldand
Mother Jones, where it
headlined the
publication’s Climate
Desk Weekly
newsletter. I spoke
about it on Oregon
Public Broadcasting’s
daily conversation
show, Think Out Loud with Dave Miller and KJZZ
Phoenix’s The Show. That interview was shared by outlets throughout the Mountain
West News Bureau,
which includes public
media stations in
Colorado, Idaho,
Nevada, New Mexico,
Utah and Wyoming. I
also joined the City Cast Seattle podcast to discuss wildfire
betting with Jane Hu,
a former HCN editor.
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Talking about the
story sparked new
discoveries: Before
our conversation,
Miller reached out to
Cal Fire, the state’s
fire agency, with a
question I hadn’t
originally thought to
ask, and we learned
that state employees
in California,
including Cal Fire
employees, aren’t
allowed to bet on
prediction markets —
knowledge that might
assuage some concerns
about insider trading,
at least when it comes
to wildfires in that
state.
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I also learned more
about the patchy
regulations that
govern prediction
markets. Depending on
where you live in the
West, you may or may
not even have access
to them. Arizona, for
example, tried but
failed to ban Kalshi
after federal courts
intervened, leaving
the platform still
accessible to the
state’s residents. In
Washington, however, a
judge just ruled that
the platform likely
violates state
gambling laws, paving
the way for the state
to halt its operations
in the state for an
unknown amount of
time. Meanwhile, most,
but not all, Kalshi
markets are blocked in
Nevada.
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The more I learned,
the more I came to
believe that
prediction markets
were important — and
that people should
understand them,
whether they gambled
or not.
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My reporting
convinced me that
viewing wildfires as
entertainment or for
profit has dangerous
consequences.
Gamifying something
deadly and profiting
off an event that
destroys communities
does not sit right
with me. I’ll be
curious to see if the
next megafire that
captures national
attention is open for
wagers, or whether
platforms, states or
the federal government
will eventually decide
the risks aren’t worth
the rewards.
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