Okay team, It's time for some serious financial thinking to occur.... Bruce & I have combed through the proposed budget and made various updates.
Here's the lowdown.
FIRST - Expenses:
Columns I & J are the ones to look at. Assumes we go to Hunterville. Column I = Minus -20% growth down to 585 people; Column J = breakeven point of 700 people. The expenses for both columns are the same -- it's the revenue that changes.
For expenses..... notable things which are highlighted in YELLOW, total expenses comes to about
$85,000*
Art Grant increased from $7k to $9k
* New line item =
Innovation grant of $500
*
Car/Vehicle Cost of $3300 derived: $500 cost to buy a Gate vehicle; $2300 cost to rent a Ute for MPW; $500 misc (note we have another line item for Blizzard maintenance of $600)
*
Moving costs = $5000. This is just an off-the-cuff guess. I can't recall, did anyone ever do any research on moving Colin from Mangakino to Hunterville? And if we buy Lumos' container, we'd need to get that trucked down as well. Can someone do some research on this?
*
Kitchen = $5000 (cooking for 60 people pre festival. Based on a $7/day per person food cost)
*
MPW = $1200 --> this needs further analysis. What are expected costs for MPW (and for all the other departments, we need to make sure the managers are really working out budgets)
* Fire Hireage = $500. Ballparking this figure. We had received this note from Paul:
Fire costs,
that all depends on the fire season, normally we are OPEN in that area
at that time of year which would mean you don’t need a permit thus basic
precautions would be enough, this year we were RESTRICTED at the time
of Kiwiburn, this would mean you’d need a permit and thus need some form
of fire fighting capability. I’ll talk with Steve at council but I
reckon we could offer the rural fire force for a donation if in a
RESTRICTED season (much like the arrangement you have with Mangakino
brigade). If it’s an OPEN season I reckon I could assist with enough
gear to get by (only charge you running costs if we used it). *
Toilets = $6000. That's based on last year's actual cost which we know was underpriced. I left it the same as I am thinking we will do a blend of portaloos and composting toilets? THIS NEEDS TO ACTUALLY BE PRICED BY A LOCAL PORTALOO CONTRACTOR SOON AND A DECISION MADE ABOUT THE COMPOSTING TOILETS.
*
Insurance = $700. I kept this the same as last year. However.... I am actually talking with Sharleen (our broker) now about insurance for the Chch Temple burn which she said she could not obtain for us. She indicated that we may have an issue for Kiwiburn as no one will insure for $1mm+ rural & fire damage liability. I do not know if we will need this amount of cover as this was the *additional* coverage we had to buy to satisfy Phil Parker. Our normal policy that we've had for the past 5 years only carried $250,000 rural fire coverage. I had further questions for her which I'm waiting to receive. Will keep everyone posted. May be worth just pinging Paul to see what he thinks.
*
Security = $4500. I just cut last year's number in half as we expect to not need 4 security guards. We need to actually CONFIRM THESE NUMBERS WITH A LOCAL COMPANY SOON!
*
Site Fee to Hunterville Site Owners = $9000 +
*
ExCom Summit = $5360
Here's how this is derived based on an email with the owners from April 22:
3,500
as base + The amount you can save from the security bill with less
fences, etc (we are thinking could be 2,500 from this) + The rent of the
lodge for 2 or 3 days (We should see how many people is staying, the
prices are 320 up to 2 people, and 70 each extra person) + 10 per ticket
sold (We could receive this money after you sell 500 tickets) +
Jobs at the farm
So the calculation is as follows:
$3500 flat base rate
$4500 savings from last year's security bill (last years actual minus-this years estimate which needs to be confirmed)
$ 850 $10/ticket over 500 (so this is based on attendance of 585 people, obviously this number fluctuates)
---------
$9000 attendance fee, plus
$2500 rental of the lodge for excom summit (11 people for 2 nights, 7 people for 3rd night)
---------
$11,500 fee to property owners
Bruce --> is the savings we have from security going to be part of the ongoing fee with them? Ie, would we negotiate a base rate of say $8000 + $10/pp over 500 for future years as well?
The excom summit bumps up from this years $3300'ish cost to $5360 cost, mainly due to the lodge rental which is much more than staying on the cheap or for free at one of our places.
So... as I said, holding all other costs fairly constant for the crews and printing costs, etc our festival operating costs are expected to come in at
$85,000 if we MOVE sites (they were $69,000 last year). If we stay at Mangakino, I expect costs to be around $79,000 (difference to do with a lot of things: cost more for toilets, fire service, security, increase to Art Grants; cost less for site rental)
Now onto revenue & ticket pricing:
First, let's look at our ticket pricing history:
| Ticket Prices |
YEAR |
| ? Same as 2009? |
2007 |
| ? Same as 2009? |
2008 |
| 50/60/70/80 |
2009 |
| 50/60/70/100 |
2010 |
| 70/80/90/140 |
2011 |
| 70/90/110/160 |
2012 |
| 70/90/110/160 |
2013 |
We said at the summit we should bump up prices by $20 this year to $90/110/$130/180. Doing this will give us est revenue of $70,000, leaving us with a -($15,000) shortfall (ouch) and which will reduce our $23k in savings back down to $8k. We can live with that, but that means all our budget items need to be spot on. {This assumes a reduction of 20% in attendance}. IF we achieve the same attendance, then we should break even (Col J).
Just for fun, I bumped up ticket prices another $10 to $100/$120/$140/$200. This would give us est revenue of $77,000, so only a -(70000 shortfall). If we have flat attendance (700'ish people), then we'd profit almost $8k.
If we end up at Mangakino, and held prices at last year's ticket prices, we'd probably lose $1500 (this mainly is due to increase in toilet rentals by $4000 and the lost revenue from TDC).
MY THOUGHTS:
1. I would suggest we take ticket prices up $30 across the board to $100/$120/$140/$200. Those are still very reasonable prices for a 5 night/6 day festival. Assuming we move site, for the current year, we can afford to take the loss should attendance drop by 20%. Heck attendance could drop by 40% (to 440 participants) before we'd lose all our savings, and I think the probability of that is very low. And if we are pleasantly surprised by attendance numbers, then we will continue to build up our coffers for future growth costs.
2. We need to get clarity on some of the expenses which I've only estimated: portaloos, security, insurance, moving site, etc. We also need all managers to start seriously trying to figure out their budgets.
3. Given that we are behind schedule a bit and are still in the void of the unknown, I would recommend we hold off from commencing ticket sales until 1st October (rather than 1 Sept). I am supposed to give SLAM a final answer by then and hopefully we would know the status of our resource consent.
4. Should it come to pass that we have to be at Mangakino again this year, I would still suggest we bump up the ticket prices. If we did so, we'd net about $20 - $25k which would be a further safety net, allow us to continue site searching in earnest, allow us to bump up Art Grants to $10 (or more for the year), etc. We would need to make a case for this to the community, but I think we could do so.
Whew. Take some time to think about these things and then let's tawk!
-K