Chaos And Governance In The Modern World System

[Exequiel Mondragon]

Theauthors look to two earlier periods that resemble the present in key respects -- the transition from Dutch to British world hegemony in the eighteenth century and the transition from British to U.S. world hegemony in the late-nineteenth and early-twentieth centuries. In each case, a system wide expansion culminated in crisis and systemic chaos; eventually, a new hegemonic power reorganized the system to solve the problems and contradictions that underlay the chaos.The authors find recurrent characteristics in these transitions, such as the resurgence of finance capital and the intensification of interstate rivalries and social conflict. They also recognize, however, how the present transition differs from the previous patterns. Among the anomalies are the proliferation of transnational organizations and communities, increased social conflict in driving systemic change, a geographical split between military and financial powers, and a shift in the processes of capital accumulation away from the West.Chaos and Governance in the Modern Worm System addresses controversies affecting a range of fields -- political, economic, social, and cultural -- concerned with global change. Though written from a world-systems perspective, it emphasizes the instability and adaptability of world capitalism and the role played by hegemonic states in periodically reorganizing the system.

Sponsored by the Peace Studies Program at Florida Atlantic University & the Arrighi Center for Global Studies at the Johns Hopkins University. Organized by Phillip A. Hough (FAU Sociology).

At the close of the 20th century, Giovanni Arrighi and Beverly Silver published their influential work, Chaos and Governance in the Modern World-System (1999). Arrighi, Silver and their collaborators employed world historical methodologies to take on crucial scholarly controversies about the systemic and structural transformations characterizing global capitalism at the time, including the rise and spread of market fundamentalism, the financialization of capital, and processes of global economic integration and liberalization. Were these world system changes a sign of US hegemony or hegemonic decline? Did they signify a fundamental structural shift in the balance of power among states? Had "globalization" irremediably undermined state power? Had the world economy entered an unstoppable "race to the bottom" in conditions of work and life? Was the close of the 20th century the autumn of five centuries of Western dominance in the modern world system? Arrighi and Silver took on these questions, arguing that we have entered a period of US hegemonic decline and that urgent action was needed to avoid a long-period of systemic chaos and deep human suffering.

This conference provides a unique opportunity for scholars interested in revisiting these themes, questions, and propositions nearly two decades later, when the geopolitics, global economy and fabric of social life appear to be more uncertain and future directions more unstable.

This paralysis extends far beyond COVID-19. From the climate crisis to our suicidal war on nature and the collapse of biodiversity, our global response is too little, too late. Unchecked inequality is undermining social cohesion, creating fragilities that affect us all. Technology is moving ahead without guard rails to protect us from its unforeseen consequences.

There was broad recognition that we are at a pivotal moment. Business as usual could result in breakdown of the global order, into a world of perpetual crisis and winner-takes-all. Or we could decide to change course, heralding a breakthrough to a greener, better, safer future for all. This report represents my vision, informed by your contributions, for a path towards the breakthrough scenario.

The lack of a global response and vaccination programme to end the COVID-19 pandemic is a clear and tragic example. The longer the virus circulates among billions of unvaccinated people, the higher the risk that it will develop into more dangerous variants that could rip through vaccinated and unvaccinated populations alike, with a far higher fatality rate. Investing $50 billion in vaccination now could add an estimated $9 trillion to the global economy in the next four years.

Likewise, the recommendations of the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response must be a starting point for urgent reforms to strengthen the global health architecture. The World Health Organization must be empowered and funded adequately, so that it can play a leading role in coordinating emergency response. Global health security and preparedness must be strengthened through sustained political commitment and leadership at the highest level. Low- and middle-income countries must be able to develop and access health technologies.

More broadly, we cannot afford to ignore the alarm sounded by the pandemic and by galloping climate change. We must launch a new era of bold, transformative policies across the board. We must take our heads out of the sand and face up to future health crises, financial shocks and the triple planetary emergency of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution. We need a quantum leap to strengthen multilateralism and make it fit for purpose.

One of the central recommendations of my report on Our Common Agenda is that the world should come together to consider all these issues and more at a high-level summit of the future. This summit will aim to forge a new global consensus on what our future should look like, and how we can secure it. The summit should include a new agenda for peace, that takes a more comprehensive, holistic view of global security.

The new agenda for peace could include measures to reduce strategic risks from nuclear arms, cyberwarfare and lethal autonomous weapons; strengthen foresight of future risk and reshape responses to all forms of violence, including by criminal groups and in the home; invest in prevention and peacebuilding by addressing the root causes of conflict; increase support for regional initiatives that can fill critical gaps in the global peace and security architecture; and put women and girls at the centre of security policy.

Our goal should be a more inclusive and networked multilateralism to navigate this complex landscape and deliver effective solutions. To support our collective efforts, I will ask an advisory board led by eminent former Heads of State and Government to identify global public goods and potentially other areas of common interest where governance improvements are most needed, and to propose options for how this could be achieved. The work starts now, and I hope for your active engagement.

The uneven recovery from the pandemic has exposed the deficiencies in our global financial system. In the next five years, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), cumulative economic growth per capita in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to be around one quarter of the rate in the rest of the world. Meanwhile, both public and private finance for climate action have been insufficient for years, if not decades.

To tackle historic weaknesses and gaps, and integrate the global financial system with other global priorities, I propose biennial summits at the level of Heads of State and Government, between the G20, ECOSOC [Economic and Social Council], the heads of international financial institutions and the Secretary-General of the United Nations. The overriding aim of these summits would be to create a more sustainable, inclusive and resilient global economy, including fairer multilateral systems to manage global trade and technological development.

These biennial summits would coordinate efforts to incentivize inclusive and sustainable policies that enable countries to offer basic services and social protection to their citizens. They would tackle unfair and exploitative financial practices and resolve long-standing weaknesses in the international debt architecture. Governments should never again face a choice between serving their people or servicing their debt.

These biennial summits would also harness global financial frameworks to move forward quickly and unequivocally on climate action and biodiversity loss. The Paris target is still within reach, but we need faster, nimbler, more effective climate and environmental governance to limit global heating and support countries most affected.

COP26 will be a vital forum to accelerate climate action. I intend to convene all stakeholders ahead of the first Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement in 2023 to consider further urgent steps. Member States are already preparing a strong post-2020 biodiversity framework, the 2021 Food Systems Summit, and the Stockholm+50 Summit on the environment next year. I will do everything in my power to ensure these are platforms for a fundamental reset in our relationship with nature.

My report calls for new metrics that value the life and well-being of the many over short-term profit for the few. Likewise, access to concessional finance should be based on vulnerability to risks and shocks, not the outdated metric of GDP.

I therefore intend to create a futures lab that will work with Governments, academia, civil society, the private sector and others, bringing together all our work around forecasting, megatrends and risks. The futures lab will collect and analyse data, building on existing mechanisms, including the annual IMF early warning exercise, to issue regular reports on megatrends and catastrophic risks.

To improve our preparedness for future shocks, my report recommends an emergency platform that would be triggered automatically in large-scale crises, bringing together leaders from Member States, the United Nations system, key country groupings, international financial institutions, regional parties, civil society, the private sector, research bodies and others.

I also believe we need an intergovernmental body that thinks beyond immediate geopolitical dynamics to consider the interests of our entire human family, present and future. My report therefore proposes that Member States consider repurposing the Trusteeship Council, to make it into a deliberative platform on behalf of succeeding generations.

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