Demanding Poker Stake

[Alternatives Watch]

Alternatives Watch – 10viii09


DEMANDING POKER STAKE


Parliamentarian Mu Sochua has raised the stake to a dangerous level in
her political poker game. She lodges an appeal to fight on, and vows
not to pay any fine and compensation to Hun Sen as the court orders.
She adds another objective onto her wish list – an end to the culture
of begging for pardon, which has been a solution for many of Hun Sen’s
high profile opponents.

Mu Sochua has chosen a full head-on approach in her drive to achieve
her objectives. She attacks judge Sem Sakola for not using conscience
and law in the decision. She sees no significance in the judge’s order
that limits the damage payment to 8 million riels, not the 10 million
riels Hun Sen has sought from the defendant as compensation. It would
be interesting to discover why Sem Sakola chooses not to award the
full amount. The attack effectively keeps the judge firmly in the Hun
Sen’s camp.

There appears no compelling reason for Hun Sen to back away. He has so
far conquered all his adversaries, and it is very unlikely he will
allow Mu Sochua to break his long record of victories. A few lines of
protest and criticisms from local and international groups become
sources of his annoyance rather than anything that could change his
winning formula. The Mu Sochua case is there for him to re-affirm his
political invincibility.

Thus, without any back-flip from either side, achieving the
parliamentarian’s objectives will depend on how she manages the
fallout. The worst case scenario is when Hun Sen decides to take her
out as he may rather deal with a quick public outburst than living
with a continual annoying pressure. The best outcome she can hope for,
after all appeals and the international and local protests fail, is a
short jail time. From her cell, Mu Sochua would have to find ways to
intensify the momentum she has built up among her supporters, and
maintain the three year empowerment programme she is in charge for the
SRP women’s group.

Either way, it seems questionable if there is an effective plan in
place to mobilise supporters and keep them motivated so that her
effort will not be in vain. Her rush to a more than six week tour of
the US immediately after the verdict may bring her more international
support. However, to be of any consequence, the support must be in
concrete actions that will cause real damage to her opponent’s
confidence. The long absence may diminish the adrenalin she has pumped
into her supporters during the court case, consequently requiring
intensified work to bring it back and over to the level that can break
Hun Sen. The trip may also become a reminder to her local supporters
that she enjoys a safe option that many of them may need but do not
have.

Nevertheless, if the real objective is simply some short-term
publicity stunt, Mu Sochua and the SRP have definitely achieved that;
otherwise, serious work awaits them.


Ung Bun Ang


Quotable Quote:

“How can one catch tiger cubs without entering the tiger's lair?”

Banchao (32–102), Chinese diplomat and military leader.