Business Side of Hun Sen Stability

[Alternatives Watch]

Alternatives Watch – 10v09


BUSINESS SIDE OF HUN SEN STABILITY


So, according to prime minister Hun Sen, as long as he remains at the
top job there will be political stability in Cambodia. He makes this
claim at the recent Second Mekong-Japan Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in
Siem Reap. And Hun Sen is probably right about the stability,
considering the fact that oppositions are weak, disorganised, and
unable to mount any credible challenges to him.

However, if it is true that the motive behind the claim is to impress
new Japanese foreign minister Katsuya Okada for substantial Japanese
investments in Cambodia, Hun Sen may be disappointed. His kind of
stability that depends on him being there can, of course, attract
certain businessmen who are seeking a quick profit with opportunities
to move their capital in and out at short notice. It is a business
operation that most suits fly-by-night or vulture companies that know
who to bribe.

But serious foreign investors – the ones whom Council for Development
of Cambodia secretary-general Sok Chenda says want to grow with the
host country – may not share Hun Sen’s enthusiasm for his brand of
stability the way he hopes they will. To them, the prime minister’s
claim rings an alarm bell flagging a huge country risk, instead of a
welcoming sign, when political stability of a country depends on an
individual rather than institutions. They know there is a limit to how
long a person can live, or can perform at optimum; only a strong
institution can offer a lasting political stability that is conducive
to long term business prosperity.

With his previous statement that without him there will be war, prime
minister Hun Sen effectively makes those investors cringe. The
Japanese government has been supportive of Cambodia from day one since
the peace settlement; it funds, in one form or another, about fifty
percent of the Cambodian national budget every year. But in contrast,
Japanese businessmen generally have not been further away from what
salesman par excellent Sok Chenda claims to be a unique money-making
opportunity in Cambodia. There is a reason for them to stay away in
droves.

If Hun Sen were to attract long term investors whom Sok Chenda
cherishes, he would have to start working on building a strong
government institution for Cambodia – the one that does not depend on
him, and will last long after he is gone. He would need to believe
that, no matter how comfortably he can walk all over his political
opponents, he will neither last nor live forever. Like others, he is
mortal and vulnerable to unpredictable future. He may be in charge,
but not everything under the sun is under his control. Some X factor
could abruptly put him out of commission, which will drown everything
that depends on him.

With a strong institution, besides securing those beneficial foreign
investments, Cambodia would not be thrown into chaos every time there
is a leader changeover. The people would likely be spared from
sufferings in between regimes they have frequently experienced since
the heyday of Angkor.


Ung Bun Ang


Quotable Quote:

“A week is a long time in politics.”

Attributed to: Harold Wilson (1916–1995), British prime minister.
First said in 1965 or 1966, and repeated on several occasions.