>> It's noticeable, in the UK at least, supermarkets have kept their
>> profit margins relatively stable, whereas the FMCG and food
>> manufacturers (Unilever, P&G etc.) have increased their profit
>> margins, thus increasing inflation, while the central banks (BoE,
>> Fed) are increasing interest rates to counter it. Has anyone ever
>> actually proved that increasing interest rates actually reduces
>> inflation, or is the an economics red herring?
>
>
https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/analysis/historical-
> interest-rates-uk/
>
> "1979 Conservative government The incoming administration of Margaret
> Thatcher raised interest rates to 17 per cent, as this was seen by
> the government of the time as a key weapon in combating inflation. It
> did have the effect of reducing inflation, although critics noted its
> negative impact on UK manufacturing exports."
Interest rates do affect inflation, but both governments and central
banks seem to use an overly simplistic analysis in assuming that there
is a direct correlation. In fact it's a multi-factorial problem. Even at
the simplest level, you need to ask questions like "What are the
side-effects? Is it worth wrecking the economy to make a point? Must we
destroy the village in order to save it?"
Here are just a few of the factors that need to be considered.
1. There are causes of inflation that can't be altered by tweaking
interest rates. An obvious example is the big jump in the prices of oil,
coal, and gas caused by the invasion of Ukraine. The suppliers of these
commodities saw the opportunity of big profits, so they raised the
prices. No matter what you do to interest rates, they will still raise
the prices.
2. An obvious result of raising interest rates is the effect on the
housing market. People considering buying houses will reconsider,
causing a slump in the building industry, with a variety of flow-on
effects. People with an existing variable-rate mortgage are screwed;
some will survive, some will lose their homes. Rents go up, leading to
an increase of the number of people who choose to sleep under bridges.
(Note the special meaning of "choose" used by free-market economists.)
3. High interest rates are a problem for people who have debts. They
are, however, good for people who have excess savings. The net effect,
then, is a transfer of wealth from the middle class to the rich. This is
in addition to the transfer caused by the fact that the rich already
have enough influence to alter things like taxation rules.
4. Businesses that need to borrow money to keep operating or to expand
are very sensitive to interest rates. Some will go to the wall. Some
will just tighten their belts, with the effect that they hire fewer
employees and collectively slow down the economy. The best hedge against
such problems is to be a very big business. Rising interest rates will
kill off small operators but will help the big ones, increasing the risk
of the rise of monopolies.
5. I'll stop here, because I feel a speech coming on.