strong links between clouds in SE Aus and planets

[kymho...@gmail.com]

In the past we've looked at clouds in my region and links with UFO
activity in (mostly) the US.

Apropos the apparent change in cloud patterns over SE Aus starting
around Sept 2023 ("for some reason") I've now collected hourly data
and examined then in as robust terms as I've used for any commercial
project in the past. But the strange links remain. It seems the
temperatures of clouds in my region is somehow "governed" by the
movements of (at least) the planets.

We've seen statistical models in the past where various programs I use
find that one dataset (X) somehow explains another dataset (Y) beyond
a reasonable prospect of it being a fluke. For these kinds of
operations I normally use 2 different tests together. A "T-test" on
the coefficient that relates Y with X (the beta of a time-series regr
model) and also a rank test comparing the ordering of the X's and Y's.
If both of these tests conclude there is less than a 10% prob the
match could be as strong as it looks just by luck then I accept the
result is "strong".

The next step up in robustness is to use various forms of validation.
This box of tricks uses information hiding to make sure the model
found actually "predicts" the Y from the X rather than just somehow
"remembering" what the Y values are. We do this by taking e.g. the
first 1/2 the data and seeing how Y relates to X. *THEN* we take that
same model and see whether the other 1/2 of the data that was not used
to calculate the model ALSO shows Y and X relate in the same way.

And to boost that even further we can e.g. take a random 1/2 of the
data and do the checking but then repeat that with different random
50% samples several times and only accept something is interesting if
all tests validate.

And to really try to stop this thing coming up "spurious correlation"
we can use all of these things together and require them all to pass.

And that is what is happening here.

To review the data. I am taking satellite data for cloud temperatures
across SE Australia. I drill down to get the region (state) and
further drill down to get just the region around the capital city
(Melbourne) incl my outer N fringes suburb.

The data are IR images that estimate each pixel's temperature.
Meteorologists want to know the temperature and distribution of
clouds, among other things, for weather forecasting.

I take the images and boil them a bit to make them tender. That
process yields 4 numbers I call "col2", "col3", "col4", "col5". Col2
values represent a rough proportion of the area of the IR image that
shows (we presume) cloud-tops with temps down to -90C. Usually these
are very high clouds. Col4 is a rough proxy for the proportion of the
image that is above freezing. This may include warm low-level
clouds. But it also definitely includes the ground in places where
there are no clouds. The temp of the Col4 pixels can go upto
50C. About 1/3 of Australia sees ground temps reach 50C every day,
summer or winter. It's a great place to live. Or do a bit of backyard
smelting. The Col3 numbers are pixels around the -10C
mark. Supposedly clouds, probably of the middling altitude variety. No
ground in Aus usually is anywhere around these temps. And, finally,
Col5 is a proxy that tries to roughly approx the temperature of the
whole region, ground and cloud.

And what I'm doing with them is seeing if the patterns in cloud
temperatures follow the movement of e.g. planets very very
closely. So closely it can not be just random chance that it's
happening.

And despite passing the data through the most robust measure I have
managed to dream up so far -- incl maybe 1 or 2 I haven't mentioned
here -- the statistical link still holds up strong. It seems all
these cloud temperatures are strongly predicted -- maybe up to 90% in
some cases -- by the movement of certain planets.

Here is the summary listing for images taken after sunset local time
(a "critical time" when certain observations have historically been a
routine matter when the sky was clear):

Planet Col Trans Lag(d) R2 Beta 90% CI
venus col3 -x 0 0.84079255 -32.4925 3.42285
pluto col3 7 0.81110485 -22.6944 2.71066
saturn col5 0 0.69254560 -15.3402 2.42248
jupiter col4 7 0.44184885 -31.9398 9.55758
uranus col5 4 0.36790085 7.02868 2.42137
neptune col4 -x 4 0.36357213 -801.892 278.841
mercury col5 -y 3 0.28932587 -0.149596 0.0528916
mars col5 -x-y 3 0.25884419 0.108046 0.050003
moon col4 4 0.25052966 -152705 60151.6

The "Planet" column is the name of the body. We're using the distance
to the body in AU (for the moon it's normally in earth radii). The
"col" col shows whether it's "cold clouds" (col2), "medium clouds"
(col3), "hot clouds/ground" (col4) or "avg temperature of
cloud/ground" (col5).

Each distance data is first processed to try to remove seasonality.
When dealing with planets we have to make sure we're actually not
getting confused with the earth's own seasons. The movements of all
planets around the sun is related. Related so closely in many cases
you might pick up spurious correlations with various planetary
parameters because those planetary parameters are "similar" to the
seasons we have on earth. Instead of the position of planet X, e.g.,
we might mistakenly be using a rough approximation of the temperature
of the northern hemisphere that may "obviously" be related to a whole
bunch of things, including when people go out-of-doors and start
watching jets and lights race around the sky over their locale.

The "de-seasoned" version of most of the distances I'm using look an
awful lot like the original (day-by-day) distance
measurement/calculation. This is all well and good. It means that
data was not related to earth's seasons to start with. But it pay to
be safe and just eliminate it as a range-fouling possibility for the
whole exercise.

We take the treated distance numbers and then lag and or transform
them. Lagging just means we are allowing some time to pass (some
number of days) before we compare that distance with a given day's
temperature data. We see from the table, above, that the distance to
venus (after deseasonalising) and taking its "ln" (logarithm base "e")
is then lagged 0 days. I.e. not lagged at all. This then is compared
with the day by day "col3" numbers and is found to pass all
statistical tests, 3 rounds of validation and STILL 81% looks the
same. For each 1 AU venus is closer to earth the avg cloud temp for
clouds around -10C at the top goes up 32.4 units (+-3.4 at 90% conf
interval).

This is an extraordinary link. You can practically predict the day to
day distance to Venus by looking at clouds around Victoria or
Melbourne.

Similar findings are made with the other bodies incl the moon. With
the moon, maybe, the link is not so surprising. It *is* seemingly
reasonable that the position of the moon can affect weather on earth
and therefore the temperature of clouds in e.g. SE Australia at a
given time of day.

Even with maybe Venus and Saturn -- that suspiciously are that the top
of the list explaining great chunks of cloud temperature data -- *might*
be related to earth weather. They are the brightest things generally
in the night sky. SOMEHOW (maybe) that light MIGHT be able to
influence the weather in the SE of Australia.

But (choke) PLUTO? Neptune? Uranus?

It seems hard to fathom how the distance or brightness of any of these
things that are normally hard to impossible to see even with
binoculars can effect cloud temperatures. Even the SE of Australia
that seems to get a lot of weather blowing up from Antarctica. West
Antarctica, typically.

Yet the tests say they do.

The closer Pluto is to earth the more cold clouds are seen in SE Aus
at night (7d later); the closer Saturn is to earth the more warm
clouds are seen at night (same day).

As in some other datasets we see Uranus seems to be the "odd guy out".
Whatever the other planets are doing -- Uranus is doing the opposite.
When Uranus is getting closer to earth (either because its orbit is
bringing it closer to the sun and/or the earth's orbit is taking it to
a place that is closer to the direction Uranus happens to be at the
time) there are less warm clouds over SE Aus in the evening.

I'll set up a "display" web page to review the pix and the tables.
The data will also be down there somewhere.

<kym.massbus.org/UFO/CLOUDS>.

--
There is something there -- measurable light, multiple instruments -- and
yet it seems to move in directions inconsistent with what we know of physics
or science more broadly. And that, to me, poses questions of tremendous
interest, as well as potential national security significance.
-- Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., 2022 House Intelligence Committee hearing
on UAPs.

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