jets v ufos #2

[kymho...@gmail.com]

We've prev looked at the game military aircraft and ufo's appear to
play vis a vis clouds. Assuming either side has some kind of control
of the weather -- e.g. as suspected in at least Alaska via the HAARP
project and possible successors -- and can call in clouds in low,
medium and high layers of the atm we can simulate a situation where
all possible (simple) flight and weather control strategies are in
equally play to estimate how often from the ground witnesses might
see military or "civil" aircraft and ufo's interact or chase each
other. We found there was "reasonable" agreement with the approx 3.7%
of reports that are received by the NUFORC.

The next step in the incremental development of this idea is to adjust
our simple simulation to weight one or 2 possible strategies either 2x
or 1/2 x the weight of the others. Can we adjust just 1 or 2 things
and get the agreement between the simulator's estimate of how often
jet v ufo chases should be witnessed vs those reported to the relevant org.

It turns out ... yes we can. And we can look at what those limited
adjustments are and decide whether they seem reasonable and/or say
something we already are familiar with to some extent.

In the case of making 1 adjustment I've badly hacked the little
program to weight 1 part of the overall problem description to be
either 1/2 or 2x its equal value. There are 4 parts of the scenario we
might want to twiddle -- either the flight or weather-control strat
for the ufo side or the jet side of the game.

We find allowing all those 34 different adjustments the range of possible
"chase sightings" goes from 2.2% to 8.4%. So we are not surprised to
find one combination scores quite close to the reported 3.7%.

Code Chase sighting %
out10 2.23684
...
out13 3.2691
out201 3.84446
out222 3.89553
out202 3.92486
...
out33 8.39251

As in most of my work the first column is a code for how the scenario
was modified over its "every situation equally likely" default
case. The 2-digit codes represent scenarios where one item was
doubled in probability. E.g. "out13" means the ufo weather control
strat "call in high level cloud" was doubled. In that case the
approx sightings of jets and ufos interacting or chasing is around
3.3% compared with 4.9% for the "all equal" case.

But the closest value to the 3.7% we are looking for seems to be
"out222". The first "2" means this is a case where the prob of
something was halved. And the following "22" indicates that thing was
ufo-side weather control of calling in hi-alt cloud. I.e. the one
change that brings the model closest to the observed value is the UFO
side of the contest makes minimal use of the strategy "bring in high
alt cloud". IOW this is the least likely strat that side is likely to
use to bring the simulation to the closest it can get to the observed
"chase rate".

It's hard to evaluate how reasonable this "prediction" is. But we can
say it is not totally outlandish, given the slew of assumptions the
program is making to explain the observations. (The one great thing
about writing a program to do this work is -- all the assumptions are
in the program somewhere; they don't remain just a vague idea that may
or may not be consciously acknowledged by some human expert :).

To up the ante a little more we can look at the next step up -- making
2 adjustments to see if we can get close to observations and also to
see whether those adjustments tell us anything.

The relevant part of the output summary file is:

out2031 1.04913
...
out21110 3.63063
out22333 3.64457 <--
out21210 3.78253 <--
out20100 3.79211 <--
out23233 3.91665
...
out3322 16.1284

Here we find allowing 2 things to be doubled or halved over "every
strategy equally likely" gives us a YUGE range of simulated chase
sightings from 1% to 16%. But we see 3 possible values quite close to
the "observed" value of 3.7% seem to be quite interesting. Now the
code has 4 or 5 digits. The initial "2" indicates changes involved 1/2
something (otherwise it's doubling). The last 4 digits say which
parts of the strategy where changed and to what.

The code "out22333" means 2 things were 1/2-ed. The 23 and 33 indicate
the jet side flies at level 3 ("high alt") less often, and calls in
clouds at level 3 less often. At least the "less high alt clouds"
makes sense. This could block sightings of UFOs from satellites.
Deciding not to fly at high alt is more obscure. But we might imaging
they would rather fly at the altitude UFOs were flying at if they want
to get a close-up look. And if UFO's are choosing flight alt equally
between low, medium and high then you might want to fly medium to get
as close as possible for observations wherever they have decided to fly.

Code out2 12 10 means the jet side decided to reduce their calls for
cloud at medium alt and "not at all". IOW they chose to mostly call in
clouds rather than none, and split between hi and low. Again, this
might maximise ufo's being seen either from ground stations or
sats and some of the time low cloud would block sightings from
citizens on the ground that might be considered "a good thing" given
the level of secrecy still apparent.

Finally, the last close scenario is 2 01 00 == ufo flight none or low
is 1/2-ed. I.e. the UFO side chooses to "mostly" fly and when it does
to fly in the medium and high alt regions and not as close to the
ground as possible. From simple personal observations of 100s of
objects over the years, many of them chased or "observed" by
conventional aircraft, only a handful of cases involved the unusual
object appearing to fly below prevailing clouds. Of course a very
select few may have flown much lower than that. Running from one side
of the property to the other to get a measurement of parallel revealed
some objects were less than 100m overhead at the time they flew past
with or without escort from a jet or prop aircraft.

So we may have learned a little something from this exercise. Certain
things that we suspect may be within the control of the 2 players of
the international game of hide and seek hinted at by various
whistle-blowers and some insiders seems to be either more or less
likely to be consistent with what has been reported over the past 70
years. Whether any patrolling aircraft travel high, medium, or low may
take on preferred values. Similarly for UFOs. And whether or if cloud
control can be called in for specific layers of the atm seem also to
be attracted to some values and not others. (The values seem to mostly
affirm the possibly of cloud control on both sides).

The next article in this series will introduce a learning element and
some reward and punishment in an attempt to find out what the 2 sides
actually are wanting to achieve. Do the jets want to chase off the
UFO's? Do they want to prevent citizens seeing them? Do UFO's want to
look at the ground? Do they like playing with jets to prove how
powerful their technology is compared with fossil fuels? These and
other interesting questions are just some that await answers in
possible sequels.

--
There is something there -- measurable light, multiple instruments -- and
yet it seems to move in directions inconsistent with what we know of physics
or science more broadly. And that, to me, poses questions of tremendous
interest, as well as potential national security significance.
-- Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., 2022 House Intelligence Committee hearing
on UAPs.

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