Nevada, ufo activity and US military spending

[MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com]

I'll put all the boring numbers at the bottom for people that like to
check whether someone's claims are in fact supported by a slew of evidence.


In science no one takes anyone's word for anything. You are supposed
to go out yourself, gather some evidence, analyze it, and draw conclusions.

In this case almost by definition the US military is involved in
numerous "conspiracies". It's only a matter of which ones it's
involved in. Official statements recently admitted the Pentagon has been
misleading the public about the existence of UFO's for at least the past 70y.
IOW a conspiracy.

We can look at the various data to see whether UFO activity is or has been
tracked by the US military. And -- surprise -- yes.
We can check whether some part of US military spending seems to rise
and fall in parallel with some types of UFO sightings.
IOW can we find evidence that the US military itself "might" be
involved in the development of some kind of aircraft that (at least
superficially) could be mistaken for various types of UFO's.
We can also test whether Nevada in particular is perhaps at the centre
of some kind of UFO activity. And -- surprise again -- the data says yes.

And pretty much we knew this all going in even for mundane reasons of
partly-acked-over-the-years conventional weapons development.

With sufficient even simple data probably already in the public domain
we might even establish whether any of this hidden military activity
might be associated with aircraft that are highly unusual --
i.e. don't have conventional lifting surfaces or engines and has
hypersonic or high-G performance.

One set of evidence I can produce is that Nevada seems to be "at the
centre" of certain kinds of UFO observations.

We can plot the frequency of various kinds of UFO reports (I allays
prefer the NUFORC dataset because of transparency) versus the distance
away from some presumed center of the activity. If it drops off
e.g. in a curve like 1/r^2 then we have evidence -- but of course not
proof -- that the suspected center of activity is, in fact, a center
of activity. It's hard to credit that the "sighting density" of
e.g. Triangle UFO's could drop off at ~1/r^2 from Nevada unless they
at least sometimes "originate" from somewhere in the state.

Another set of evidence compares US military spending (adjusted for
inflation) versus subsequent activity of each type of UFO. When
spending goes up does activity of e.g. black Triangles/Spheres go up
say 2 or 3 years later, and fall again 2-3 years after military
spending falls? Repeatedly over 20-70 years? If it does it's hard not
to credit this with programs that develop aircraft that can be ID-ed
as e.g. Triangles or Spheres.

Together, these lines of evidence seem to suggest certain aircraft are
being developed by the US military and e.g. test flown out of bases in
Nevada (and elsewhere).

Where the technology originally came from is anyone's guess. :)


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Sample evidence 1. Reports of UFO "Spheres" seem to follow US military
spending (in real terms) about 2-3 years alter over at least the
period 2006-2021 (the period comes from the NUFORC web-reporting form;
this period is not directly comparable with pre-2006 reports that came
from telephone or letters).

y = 279.271*x + -945.592
beta in 279.271 +- 39.1018 90% CI
alpha in -945.592 +- 189.127
T-test: P(beta>0.000000) = 1.000000
Rank test: Spearman corr > critical value at 1% sig: reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.93104994

Data:
Year US Mil spend Number of Number of sightings
(%gdp adj cpi) "Sphere" predicted from model
sightings
2006 4.21 216 230.139
2019 4.34 325 266.445*(model 1sd too low)
2018 4.39 226 280.408*(+1)
2007 4.44 284 294.372
2009 4.5 336 311.128
2010 4.52 331 316.713
2017 4.56 378 327.884*(-1)
2008 4.6 331 339.055
2016 4.88 355 417.251*(+1)
2011 4.96 431 439.593
2015 5.18 460 501.032*(+1)
2012 5.5 637 590.399*(-1)
2013 5.65 615 632.29
2014 5.65 654 632.29

The regression takes US military spending as% GDP adjusted for
inflation and compares against "Sphere" reports to the NUFORC 3y
later. The 3y is determined by search that maximizes the R2 value
("explanation power").

The model is highly significant using 2 different stats tests. There
is roughly 1 chance in 1000 this link could just happen by chance.

The model explains the majority of military spending changes 2006-2021
(according to the R2 stats).

For each 1% of additional real GDP spend during the period a
corresponding 279+-39 (90% confidence interval) occurred 3y later.
This seems consistent with "spheres" being developed over 3y from
additional military spending. They seem to cost a lot. :)


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Sample evidence 2: Approx UFO activity around Nevada over the period
1940-2021 follows militry spending.

We can take the totality of UFO activity reported in Nevada (one of
the lowest-pop-density states) and neighbouring states over the period
and see whether this rises and falls with US real military spending 2
years earlier. (This 2y is determined by a search of the lags looking
to maximize the R2 "explanation power" statistic).

While there is some quibble about the spikes related to WWII, Korea
and other hot conflicts, the overall pattern again shows there is a
statistically-strong relationship between military spending and
reported UFO activity in the whole region.

Durbin-Watson d = 1.014188
d < dL (1.598421): Positive auto-corr at 5%
(Serial Corr Detected; estimated rho = 0.488494).
y = 0.256395*x + 12.7833
beta in 0.256395 +- 0.264478
alpha in 12.7833 +- 1.77575
T-test: P(beta>0.000000) = 0.944704
Rank test: Spearman corr > critical value at 5% sig: reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.03701032

Data:
Year US mil spend Pct UFO's reported Model predicted
%GDP adj inf in NV and adj states pct sightings
1930 1.31 0 13.1192**(model 2sd too high)
1932 1.59 0 13.191**
1936 1.62 0 13.1987**
1940 1.89 0 13.2679**
1942 2.26 0 13.3627**
1939 2.32 0 13.3781**
1934 2.81 0 13.5038**
1938 3.13 0 13.5858**
2001 3.46 19.4444 13.6704
2003 3.46 19.9115 13.6704
2002 3.5 18.8679 13.6807
2000 3.56 21.097 13.6961*(model 1sd too low)
1999 3.79 20.6731 13.755*(-1)
2004 3.86 20.1893 13.773*(-1)
1998 3.92 15.1376 13.7884
1997 4.27 26.2976 13.8781*(-1)
1996 4.62 21.3542 13.9678*(-1)
1995 5.02 16.1435 14.0704
1993 5.2 22.2973 14.1165*(-1)
1994 5.35 21.5385 14.155*(-1)
1981 5.47 22.1154 14.1858*(-1)
1980 5.57 19.8413 14.2114
1992 5.74 19.697 14.255
1979 5.84 15.4362 14.2806
1982 5.88 16.4948 14.2909
1983 6.04 11.7117 14.3319
1991 6.08 16.9492 14.3422
1943 6.09 0 14.3447**(+2)
1978 6.11 17.2589 14.3499
1990 6.31 25 14.4011*(-1)
1976 6.37 14.7239 14.4165
1975 6.51 13.4831 14.4524
1977 6.54 10.828 14.4601
1989 6.6 18.705 14.4755
1984 6.63 13.253 14.4832
1986 6.66 15.5963 14.4909
1985 6.79 16.0305 14.5242
1987 6.8 14.1732 14.5268
1988 6.85 15.5405 14.5396
1974 7.4 10.3448 14.6806
1950 7.79 26.9231 14.7806*(-1)
1973 7.97 11.4504 14.8268
1967 8.3 17.8571 14.9114
1968 8.56 13.6364 14.978
1972 8.82 15.2174 15.0447
1971 9.31 18.8406 15.1703
1966 9.55 13.3929 15.2319
1969 9.74 12.766 15.2806
1951 10.02 20 15.3524
1970 10.02 11.9565 15.3524
1965 10.08 12.5 15.3678
1949 10.09 9.0909 15.3703
1964 10.53 14.0625 15.4831
1953 10.54 0 15.4857**(-2)
1952 10.63 17.3913 15.5088
1962 11.4 12.8205 15.7062
1963 11.61 13.0435 15.76
1961 12.18 11.4286 15.9062
1958 12.43 16.129 15.9703
1959 12.55 20 16.0011
1960 12.77 23.6842 16.0575*(-1)
1957 13.11 15.1515 16.1446
1956 16.23 16.6667 16.9446
1954 16.81 29.1667 17.0933*(-1)
1955 17.4 13.0435 17.2446
1944 18.15 14.2857 17.4369
1948 23.41 22.2222 18.7855
1945 37.44 33.3333 22.3827*(-1)
1946 40.07 14.2857 23.057*(+1)
1947 41.52 7.1429 23.4288**(+2)

The model is statistically robust but only explains about 3% (the R2)
of all UFO sightings around NV in the past 70 years. There is liable
to be more than just the one reason for changes in UFO sightings. But
the stats is quite certain using 2 tests that there is a link between
US military spending and UFO sightings around Nevada over the past 70y.

For each 1% of real US mil spending the activity nr Nevada as a
percent of all sightings in the year increases about around .26
points. More military spending seems to be associated with a higher
proportion of sightings specifically in NV and adjacent states; a
decline in real spending is assoc with a fall in such sightings.

Several other UFO types follow the same pattern. Some UFO types follow
no such pattern indicating they may be "outside the system" being considered.


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Sample evidence 3: The spacial distribution of some UFO activity
around Nevada seems to implicate the state as the "origin" of some of it.

We can take the total sightings of each type of UFO in states across
the US and calculate whether there is some kind of curve that
beyond-statistical-doubt explains the further away from (specifically)
Nevada the lower the density of such sightings. If some such types of
UFO are found we might suspect they are being flown out of bases in Nevada.

y = 5.983 * x^-0.269607
beta in -0.269607 +- 0.0571731
alpha in 1.78892 +- 0.450733
T-test: P(beta<0.000000) = 1.000000
Rank test: Spearman corr > critical value at 1% sig: reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.45467464

Data:
State approx dist from NV Disk sightings Model-predicted
(km) (per mn cap) disk sightings per mn cap
California 383.697 0.73062 1.20298**(2s too high)
Utah 614.266 0.890111 1.05964
Idaho 708.029 1.28906 1.01983*(-1)
Arizona 819.383 1.13258 0.980446
Oregon 879.911 1.25756 0.961787*(-1)
Washington 1111.59 1.23658 0.90305*(-1)
Wyoming 1200.67 0.796271 0.884476
Montana 1206.67 1.22629 0.883288*(-1)
Colorado 1311.17 1.05071 0.863729
South.Dakota 2065.41 0.854195 0.764137
Kansas 2255.7 0.549518 0.746194*(+1)
Oklahoma 2264.6 0.596548 0.745403*(+1)
Iowa 2683.44 0.597555 0.712067
Minnesota 2700.34 0.655786 0.710863
Missouri 2755.01 0.909533 0.707032*(-1)
Arkansas 2773.11 0.671546 0.705785
Wisconsin 3118.69 0.542907 0.683787*(+1)
Illinois 3128.53 0.570241 0.683206
Tennessee 3384.45 0.676742 0.668876
Indiana 3429.38 0.77546 0.666502
Kentucky 3605.19 0.813542 0.657578*(-1)
Michigan 3655.54 0.517335 0.655124*(+1)
Georgia 3764.15 0.515592 0.649973*(+1)
Ohio 3818.61 0.487944 0.647461*(+1)
West.Virginia 4012.91 0.686883 0.638855
South.Carolina 4052.21 0.708047 0.637179
Florida 4101.87 0.700499 0.63509
North.Carolina 4149.43 0.690375 0.633119
Virginia 4320.3 0.644161 0.626268
Pennsylvania 4430.7 0.604046 0.622022
District.of.Columbia 4450.94 0.495814 0.621258*(+1)
Maryland 4477.4 0.588256 0.620266
Delaware 4619.54 0.704806 0.615062
New.York 4700.64 0.521995 0.612183
New.Jersey 4734.71 0.602812 0.610992
Hawaii 4879.64 0.698518 0.606045
Connecticut 4936.43 0.779752 0.604158*(-1)
Massachusetts 5078.25 0.667209 0.599562

This model suggests at least some Disk UFO's are flown out of bases in
Nevada.

The model is not even close to the expected 1/r2 law. But it does show
the further away from Nevada (specifically) the lower the density (per
mn capita relevant state population) of Disk UFO sightings.

Doubling the distance from Nevada approx reduces Disk sighting density
by a factor of 17%.

Both statistical tests used are 99% sure the relationship is not just
due to chance. It explains about 45% (the R2) of the state-to-state
variation in Disk sightings (per mn cap).

Several other UFO types follow the same pattern. Some UFO types follow
no such pattern indicating they may be "outside the system" being
considered.


--
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