is nessie a ufo?

[kymho...@gmail.com]

The paranormal folklore has long pointed out that many different
things seem to be highly related. And seeing again a TV special on the
Loch Ness Monster got me to thinking.

We've previously seen when we go through a list of planets and
asteroids that e.g. UFO sightings seem to highly correlate with
certain types of object. This might be put down in the broad sense to
certain planets being mistaken for unusual flying objects. But we've
also seen other paranormal phenomena also correlate with the motions
of much the same planets and asteroids.

My mother often embarrassed us kids when we had friends over by
claiming to be a (good) witch and everything was determined by the
movement of planets. At one time I used some early computer or other to
make tables of planetary oppositions so she could continue her researches
on these things. Thinking it was a rubbish. But, now I'm a lot older, it
seems there may have been something to it all along...

In past posts we've looked at a simple computer model or simulation
that proposes a simple navigation program for objects moving around
the solar system. The nav program is very simple, mostly doing things
like taking off, heading to earth and being sighted after arrival as
probabilistic events. Otherwise the objects simply select the "next
target" after arriving anywhere according to which other asteroid or
planet from a specified target list happens to be closest on the date
of departure.

We have found this machinery along with day-to-day movements of solar
system objects like comets, asteroids, moons and planets can be tuned
to closely predict actual UFO sighting reports. When the models are
tuned using standard cross-validation techniques from data science
it's found the best ones can predict the majority of UFO sightings
day-to-day. This can in no way just be chance. But it's still a
matter of conjecture what the nature of the unknown objects is --
rocks, machines or manned spacecraft.

A prev effort tried to characterise which solar system objects on
the target list "best" explained UFO sightings. And we found an
interesting pattern:

Model p_earth speed p_leave p_seen Transf R2
in 0 0.069534 0.644472 0.0106172 0.143626 xylog2r 0.32647046
in 10 0.0800682 0.652887 0.00109242 0.398177 xlog2r 0.29838484
in 20 0.0548491 0.546684 0.00106784 0.371515 xylog2r 0.46932946<==
in 30 0.0560061 0.180773 0.000967216 0.173209 xlog 0.23305931
in 40 0.0612898 0.733376 0.000936876 0.396386 ylog2r 0.28143018
in 50 0.0665068 0.219999 0.00109635 0.36926 xlog 0.33698479
in 60 0.0747035 0.604668 0.00096664 0.200906 ylog2r 0.38372651
in 70 0.0797344 0.587307 0.000974401 0.378428 ylog2r 0.30582120
in 80 0.0658331 0.200123 0.00100648 0.135543 xlog2r 0.29328496
in 90 0.0727101 0.187888 0.000979131 0.129776 xlog 0.37518117
in 100 0.0631514 0.610038 0.000938445 0.150502 xlog 0.29180390
in 110 0.0694175 0.628733 0.00107568 0.182617 log2r 0.39432804<-
in 120 0.0654665 0.563579 0.00106929 0.13071 ylog2r 0.32082867
in 130 0.0756834 0.184478 0.00102481 0.353123 xlog2r 0.28650314
in 140 0.0558893 0.614915 0.000955523 0.385103 ylog2r 0.33814005
in 150 0.0598806 0.204064 0.0010127 0.174332 log2r 0.34128947
in 160 0.0553882 0.710917 0.00103137 0.374044 ylog2r 0.32903695
in 170 0.0583972 0.67045 0.00104285 0.41636 xlog2r 0.32493672

The best set of parameters found was for asteroids and comets with an
inclination to the ecliptic of 20-30 deg with the prob params and
constant travel speed (au/d) as given in the table. This model
"somehow" predicted (i.e. all of these models is "validated" as prev
described) 47% of day to day UFO sightings. A mental model of things
moving around at approx .55 Au/d, 5% of the time targeting earth
next, 95% of the time going to the closest 20-30 deg asteroid, and if
arriving on earth being seen daily with prob around 37% and leaving
around after an average 1000 day stay (i.e. 1/p_leave) seems to model
whatever it is UFO's are, in main.

Even more interesting an a priori unexpected 2nd bump in the R2
numbers at inclination 110-120 deg can be explained as being
"related". In astronomy research it is found when asteroids near
e.g. Jupiter are "kicked" by that planet's massive gravity every now and
then it can boost those asteroids into higher-inclination orbits and
approx 1/2 of these orbits are above the ecliptic and 1/2 below with
the centers of the 2 sets of inclinations about 90 deg apart.

IOW this 2nd bump even more interestingly validates the model as being
"something real". In science if a model predicts something we didn't
suspect at the start, and later find is found to be true, then it acts to
further validate the model and the assumptions behind it. This is the
so-called "Golden Rule" of science.

But now we come to the reason for this post. That TV special on Nessie
ran through all the evidence incl the various searches, frauds, and
non-results. Everyone was left at the end not knowing what was going
on but most scientists in the group thought they had good reason to
accept there was no plesiosaur living in Loch Ness. But, of course,
something similar may be true. As the die-hard advocates for Nessie
still say, the many people over the centuries that saw something in the
lake can't all be wrong. The motion picture clips dating back to the
early 20th cent are still intriguing. They seem to show *something*.
But the sonar sweeps of the lake, the flipper photo in Nature turned out
to be a fraud, the DNA search for unusual animal traces, have pretty much
drawn a blank. "Conclusion": there is nothing there.

But of course this is a logical mistake. It certainly may be true that
no plesiosaur is living in Loch Ness full-time, but an infinite number of
other things that are almost the same thing still *could* be true.
E.g. maybe it's an animal that is not full-time resident. Maybe it
is something that doesn't have animal DNA. Maybe it doesn't have DNA at
all. Many many other possibilities.

So. Of course I had to take another look. Our simple nav model uses
the motions of certain objects to predict when UFO sightings might
happen. The procedure validates the model by tuning it on part of the
data-set (motions of planets and asteroids from JPL's Horizon's
database) and then making sure the rest of the data is also explained
just as well by the same model. I.e. we force the procedure to make a
prediction, we test the prediction, and if we find it is true then we
have some evidence the model is actually predicting something. It has
generalized what data it was given. It learned. It "did science". :)

But who said we have to feed the procedure *UFO* sightings? And so I
fed it a series of other interesting events among them daily sightings
of Nessie over the period 2000-2023.

Now it would be remarkable if the movements of the asteroids and
planets predicted Nessie sightings as well as it predicted UFO
sightings. Some animal living in a lake in Scotland has *surely*
nothing to do with things flitting between asteroids around the solar
system and sometimes arriving on earth, staying a while, then heading
back to the next close asteroid and onto other adventures.

OK. That would be interesting. But what if it settled on the SAME
asteroids? E.g. asteroids and comets at the "same" inclination as
found for UFO's, above. What then?

This is the table it comes up with analogous to the inclination table
for UFO's, above:

Model p_earth speed p_leave p_seen Transf R2
nessie.in 0 0.0647529 0.684307 0.000984984 0.138176 ylog 0.30480424
nessie.in 10 0.0778551 0.219627 0.00109722 0.130481 ylog 0.28774162
nessie.in 20 0.0763317 0.62506 0.000984356 0.13827 y 0.36485777
nessie.in 30 0.0722998 0.544818 0.000955204 0.413195 xylog 0.30943461
nessie.in 40 0.0582008 0.560761 0.0010348 0.14943 ylog 0.40312780<-
nessie.in 50 0.063637 0.699485 0.0009325 0.184048 xylog2r 0.27944573
nessie.in 60 0.0858255 0.192374 0.0100637 0.349993 xylog 0.27036863
nessie.in 100 0.059431 0.655076 0.00106139 0.40149 xylog2r 0.42357241<==
nessie.in 110 0.0668057 0.739871 0.000989035 0.414393 xylog2r 0.28491382
nessie.in 120 0.0663074 0.186803 0.000926195 0.131879 xylog2r 0.31720914
nessie.in 130 0.0585657 0.606677 0.000900172 0.405868 ylog 0.29747418
nessie.in 140 0.07215 0.652657 0.000943611 0.207122 ylog 0.39238273

The procedure finds asteroids with inclinations between 100-110 deg
(i.e. retrograde around 80 deg above the ecliptic) "explain" around
42% of day-to-day nessie sightings. Nessie sightings might seem to be
a slam dunk for models because on most days there are 0 sightings so
any model could just "predict" that and be right most of the time. But
that is not what is happening here. On those days where there *is* a
sighting the model predicted it around 75% of the time. On days where
there was no Nessie sighting it predicted that around 75% of the time,
too. The model is "skillful" and not just guessing or using the odds
to always "predict" the most common case like a common TV expert.

And even more interesting... the inclination with the big bump is very
close to a bump found for UFO's. It's as if somehow Nessie is a kind
of UFO that has very close but maybe not exactly the behaviour of the
"average" UFO.

The UFO version predicts UFO's tend to leave their current base (incl
when on earth) after about 1000 days (i.e. the "p_leave" is around
1/1000). Nessie gets the same. Not only is the peak inclination very
close to the same, the model parameters are very close to the same as
for UFO's, overall.

So maybe Nessie is a kind of UFO and not an ancient animal that
survived mns of years in a lake someplace. It isn't always
there. And maybe it's a bit smarter than an eel and can keep quiet
when it has to. If not leave altogether and not be found unless you
have a good telescope.

This might all seem very screwy. But I promise it will become mundane.
Because the AI have done the same with all kinds of other paranormal
phenomena and -- surprise -- everything tried so far is "very similar".

If nothing else, it seems various kinda of cryptid sightings and even
ghost sightings overall might be predicted rather closely by the
motions of key objects in the solar system.

My mother would be so proud. :)

--
There is something there -- measurable light, multiple instruments -- and
yet it seems to move in directions inconsistent with what we know of physics
or science more broadly. And that, to me, poses questions of tremendous
interest, as well as potential national security significance.
-- Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., 2022 House Intelligence Committee hearing
on UAPs.

[No Good Deed Goes Unpunished:]
Whether you work in the UFO warehouse at Area 52, are the surgeon who
handles the alien autopsies, or are the designer of the amazing
climate cleaning machine, if your work is classified, you can't blow
the whistle on it for the public good and expect the law to work in
your favor.
-- David W Brown, "How to Blow the Whistle if You Work With Flying
Saucers and Their Alien Pilots". A letter from Clearance Jobs, an
organization representing govt workers with high security clearances.

Congress members will receive secret UFO briefing next week from top spy
chief amid growing demands for greater transparency
Daily Mail, 02 Jan 2024 21:39Z
Members of the House Oversight Committee are scheduled to undergo a
classified briefing next week on Unidentified Anomalous ...

The UFO Mysteries Scientists Can't Solve
Newsweek, 25 Dec 2023 19:24Z
"We need to put science at the forefront of every strange thing we observe,"
one planetary scientist told Newsweek.

UK missile base tracks `UFO' leaving RAF experts baffled and sparking
top-secret probe
The Sun, 21 Dec 2023 03:24Z
BRITAIN'S ballistic missile early warning base in Yorkshire tracked a UFO
sparking a top-secret probe, it has been revealed.

Secrets of Area 51: Metallic egg-shaped UFO kept at Air Force base,
whistleblower claims...
Daily Mail, 11 Dec 2023 19:02Z
His story has now been documented by the Pentagon's UFO investigation office
AARO, after Taber was interviewed by staff in May. A memo of his account,
along with other reports and witness statements, ...

UFO watch: House lawmakers blast intelligence community's 'orchestrated
attempt' to hide UAP info
Fox News, 30 Nov 2023 21:08Z
The intelligence community has been engaged in an orchestrated attempt to
conceal information on UFOs from the public, ...

US space agency has seen `thousands of UFOs' in one month: Report
WION, 30 Nov 2023 18:12Z
The report was based on the findings of the USSF's STARCOM, Space Force's
Space Training and Readiness ...

[Chinese weather balloons in space!]
EXCLUSIVE: US military is seeing UFOs in SPACE, official report says
Daily Mail, 29 Nov 2023 21:13Z
US Space Force released a plan to identify and track 'anomalous' UFO
sightings. The newest Pentagon branch said that 'unknown ...