experiments with UFO nav model

[kymho...@gmail.com]

In several prev posts we looked at models that are based on objects
that appear in Earth's atm and environs "navigating" around the solar
system. The aim of the exercise was to cook up a very simple model
that matches up day-by-day with known UFO sightings (I normally use
the NUFORC data upto 2022). We found that several such models explain
a large chunk of UFO sightings with very a strong statistical
certainty that this isnt just luck.

The current prime candidate for experimentation models UFO's as simple
automata that have very basic goals. They move from object to object
within the solar system in smooth curves at constant speed (measured
in AU/d). An UFO currently in the atm of some planet, moon, asteroid
or comet leaves on any given day with a fixed probability (p_leave).
If it chooses to leave then it chooses to visit Earth next with prob
p_earth. Otherwise is chooses the closes other object in a given list
of destinations.

For UFO's reaching Earth we calculate the number of "sightings" as a
fixed proportion (p_seen) of UFO's that have reached Earth and not yet
left. We transform the "seen UFO count" into a count of UFO reports
(i.e. the NUFORC count for a given day) using a simple function --
essentially a linear function but possibly using sqrt/log/powers of
the seen count.

It's then a simple matter to get an AI-driven optimizer to hunt
through all the combinations of everything to find the "best models".
In the current case all models must "validate" -- i.e. they are tried
on about 2/3 of the data on planetary and asteroid motions to find an
optimum model, then checked against the 1/3 of data not used in
training to make sure the model performs just as well there. If so,
it's saved for the end to determine which validated model has the best
"explanation power" -- i.e. the smallest square error with respect to
the variance of day-to-day UFO sightings.

Last time we noted that some of the best models the AI has found to
date suggest maybe 1/3 of UFO sightings can be explained in this way.
But more recent developments have pushed this just past 50%. I.e. it
seems possible to determine to the day when a UFO sighting might be
made simply from the motions of solar system objects.

But today we'll look at a specialised search that tries to
characterise which objects in the solar system "best explain" the
totality of UFO reports. (Looking at the models for particular
sub-types of UFO is also interesting and on-going and leading to
several surprises some of them presently very hard to explain :).

NASA/JPL's "Horizons" database is used for mission planning for probes
and other spaceflight. The blurb for the database says it keeps track
of mns of known objects to an accuracy of meters over a period of
1000s of years into the past and future. Unfortunately most objects
have only been observed via telescope so little information is
available for them apart from their orbits. Most objects have no
known size, surface albedo, rotation period or much else. Certainly,
because all objects fall at the same rate, even the mass of most
objects is not known.

So there are only limited ways to divide solar system objects up to
conduct a systematic search for the "most important" as far as our
putative UFO navigation model is concerned. If you make a model using
1000s of solar objects chosen at random the (validated) model can be
made to predict UFO sightings quite closely. But we might like to
test whether just *certain* of the solar objects are involved in these
putative movements. Can we zero in on the most important class of
objects?

One parameter that is known for most solar objects is its semi-major
axis (A). This value is roughly the average distance of its orbit
from the sun (modulo orbit "eccentricity" and the grav influence of
other solar system objects, module Jupiter and Saturn).

So we can partition known asteroids, planets, moons and comets into
distance buckets and create optimal models for each distance category
and then see if any special distances stand out. So far the AI's have
churned through distances between 0 and 10 AU from the sun --
i.e. including planets from Mercury to Saturn.

The summary table is as follows:

Model p_earth speed p_leave p_seen Trans R2
a.5 0.071629 0.214583 0.00100584 0.203717 log 0.36639588
a1 0.0568041 0.210198 0.00105137 0.183578 xylog2r 0.28136184
a1.5 0.0828047 0.600163 0.00105905 0.136631 xylog2r 0.30161104
a2 0.0683117 0.568315 0.00103976 0.190772 xylog2r 0.34559023
a2.5 0.0577278 0.613898 0.0010611 0.175899 log2r 0.29335109
a3 0.0851019 0.656988 0.000913026 0.171799 xylog2r 0.28340107
a3.5 0.0683176 0.644947 0.000926765 0.153154 log 0.36771441
a4 0.0598292 0.752912 0.000921733 0.140991 log 0.35748587
a4.5 0.0675953 0.682925 0.00109817 0.141377 xysqrt 0.39911542<-
a5 0.0697198 0.186691 0.000911366 0.174009 log 0.37888326
a5.5 0.0634316 0.739331 0.000954489 0.128725 xlog 0.37974848
a6 0.0822086 0.638555 0.00105771 0.138926 xlog2r 0.33807583
a6.5 0.0746274 0.197952 0.00091385 0.344653 xylog2r 0.38006421
a7 0.0819688 0.55695 0.00100032 0.18214 xlog2r 0.32488497
a7.5 0.0675685 0.646487 0.00094572 0.409923 log 0.29304688
a8 0.0619007 0.66731 0.00094424 0.198133 log2r 0.38489031
a8.5 0.0635766 0.631978 0.00104537 0.148351 xlog 0.36077829
a9 0.0635671 0.563366 0.00103238 0.143274 log 0.24125486
a9.5 0.0584533 0.626809 0.000939106 0.178266 ylog2r 0.41397851<<==

The "model" column gives the distance class. E.g. model "a.5" are
solar objects between 0.5 and 1.0 AU from the sun, incl Earth and
moon. The other columns given the best model known so far that
matches against all UFO sightings reported between 2006 and 2023. No
"fiddling" was done to remove known hoaxes, known mistakes, or other
"observer" factors like day of week or hour of day the sightings were
made. It's also assumed the estimated date & time of the sighting
given by the witness is correct even tho some reports come in years
after the sighting event.

Given all the qualifications it's still interesting to see the best
models found, overall, seem to cluster around A=9.5-10 and
A=4.5-5. Roughly objects orbiting near Jupiter and Saturn.

If you were "planet oriented" you might suspect many UFO's somehow
originate on Saturn. But this is not straightforwardly the case. Models
just involving Saturn and/or its moons does not explain (as here) 41%
of UFO sightings. Perhaps only 1/2 that. It seems asteroids and other
objects near the orbit of Saturn are absolutely to be included in the
model.

An even more interesting tidbit the AI's are still considering is
whether or not comets are as important as asteroids in these models.
Comets are somewhat harder to deal with than asteroids. The latter
generally have well-behaved orbits and return again and again to
approx the same positions they had "last year". But comets appear in
the inner solar system once in a blue moon and sometimes are so
changed from their travels to the outer edges of the solar system they
are hard to recognize on their return. They can look different, act
different and have different orbits each time they approach the sun.
And sometimes they just disappear altogether.

But it seems to turn out comets are again a vital part of the models.
Preliminary numbers suggest that models created from the ones that
performed well, above, but remove all mention of navigating to/from
comets explain only 1/2 the UFO sightings as the full data-set.
Interesting, also, that models without comets require the average
speed of travelling UFO's to be much higher to match Earth UFO
sightings as well as they can. It seems tagging along with a comet on
its way into the inner solar system can save -- in some sense -- a lot
of travel time.

All in all it seems UFO's do not originate in 1 or 2 special places
inside the solar system but are best explained by being distributed
over key parts of the asteroid and cometary belts. Mental model: they
are everywhere. This seems to coincide with time-lapse images from
space telescopes that see starlight-blocking events in all directions
all the time. Events that, themselves, seem to highly correlate with
UFO sightings where witnesses see things that in no way always
resemble a streaking meteor or patch of light in the sky.

In following posts we'll look at the break-down by other solar object
characteristics. There seem to be several surprises for radius,
rotation period and albedo indicating UFO are connected with "special"
asteroids and comets -- not just your run-of-the-mill rock or loose
clump of dirty ice.

--
Welcome to the very first official UFO hearing in American history
It's a historic day for everybody who has always wondered if we are alone in
the universe. Although there have already been multiple hearings on UFOs or
UAPs, this is the first hearing in which credible witnesses will testify
under oath in front of Congress. All representatives already offered their
initial remarks and gave all 3 witnesses the chance to make their oath
before the hearing starts. These witnesses are former Commander David Fravor,
former fighter jet operator Ryan Graves, and former Intelligence Official
David Grusch.
-- Marca.com, Wed Jul 26 10:48:24 EDT 2023

There is something there -- measurable light, multiple instruments -- and
yet it seems to move in directions inconsistent with what we know of physics
or science more broadly. And that, to me, poses questions of tremendous
interest, as well as potential national security significance.
-- Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., 2022 House Intelligence Committee hearing
on UAPs.

"Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood.
Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less."
- Marie Curie

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[Nuttin Two Hyde!]
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