more experiments with a ufo nav model

[kymho...@gmail.com]

We've looked a couple times at simple models that imagine some chunk
of UFO's are objects that travel around the solar system. With this
travel is intentional or unintentional, living or non-living we don't
care at this point. We merely want to see whether a simple model can
explain a significant part of the UFO sightings record and, if so,
what the model parameters might say about the objects in question. As
a side-benefit, a good enough model should be able to predict UFO
sightings into the future and the past and maybe inform us where large
groups of the objects might be located inside the solar system.

In the last post on this topic we looked briefly at a large number of
model runs with objects binned by their semi-major axis ("A"). We
found a couple special values of "A" seemed to admit models of UFO
navigation that better predicted sightings data, perhaps indicating
UFO's for whatever reason associate more with certain types of
asteroids and comets than others. We also noted, in passing, that
models that omit comets altogether in the calculations seem to be
significantly poorer at explaining UFO activity.

Today we'll zoom in on the next parameter set the AI programs have
chopped the available data into -- orbital inclination.

Some time ago we looked at another type of model that suggested UFO's
seem to have an affinity for high-inclination objects in the solar
system and -- maybe -- retrograde objects in particular. Retrograde
means the objects rotate in the opposite direction around the sun
compared with the Earth and major planets.

In astronomy calculations "retrograde" is taken into account by
specifying an orbital inclination > 90 deg to the ecliptic, the plane
of the earth's motion around the sun. Taking the JPL/NASA/Horizon
value for inclination for 1000s of objects are using the AI's to tune
up the best predictive model for UFO sightings using those with each
possible range of inclination values, we find that some values "stand
out" as being associated with "better" models for predicting UFO
activity. It seems UFO's may indeed associate with some types of
asteroids and comets more than others.

The summary table is as follows:

Model p_earth speed p_leave p_seen Transf R2
in 0 0.069534 0.644472 0.0106172 0.143626 xylog2r 0.32647046
in 10 0.0800682 0.652887 0.00109242 0.398177 xlog2r 0.29838484
in 20 0.0548491 0.546684 0.00106784 0.371515 xylog2r 0.46932946<==
in 30 0.0560061 0.180773 0.000967216 0.173209 xlog 0.23305931
in 40 0.0612898 0.733376 0.000936876 0.396386 ylog2r 0.28143018
in 50 0.0665068 0.219999 0.00109635 0.36926 xlog 0.33698479
in 60 0.0747035 0.604668 0.00096664 0.200906 ylog2r 0.38372651
in 70 0.0797344 0.587307 0.000974401 0.378428 ylog2r 0.30582120
in 80 0.0658331 0.200123 0.00100648 0.135543 xlog2r 0.29328496
in 90 0.0727101 0.187888 0.000979131 0.129776 xlog 0.37518117
in 100 0.0631514 0.610038 0.000938445 0.150502 xlog 0.29180390
in 110 0.0694175 0.628733 0.00107568 0.182617 log2r 0.39432804<-
in 120 0.0654665 0.563579 0.00106929 0.13071 ylog2r 0.32082867
in 130 0.0756834 0.184478 0.00102481 0.353123 xlog2r 0.28650314
in 140 0.0558893 0.614915 0.000955523 0.385103 ylog2r 0.33814005
in 150 0.0598806 0.204064 0.0010127 0.174332 log2r 0.34128947
in 160 0.0553882 0.710917 0.00103137 0.374044 ylog2r 0.32903695
in 170 0.0583972 0.67045 0.00104285 0.41636 xlog2r 0.32493672

As before, the model assumes all UFO's follow the same "program" of
behaviour. They are either in motion or "landed" on some object
(planet, moon, asteroid or comet) in the solar system. If landed they
leave that object with prob p_leave in each 24hr period. If they
decide to leave then they choose to goto earth next with prob
p_earth. While moving they move directly toward their chosen target at
constant speed "speed" (au/d). If they arrive on earth the daily total
of object presently "landed" on earth will generate a proportion of
sightings (p_seen) and each daily sightings are transformed by a
function (a simple linear function but possibly involving
sqrt/exp/log) to the number of generated reports listed by the NUFORC.
An AI-driven optimiser fined the best tuning for explain as large a
fraction (R2) of the day-by-day UFO reports as possible.

We see from the table that models based on just asteroids and comets
with an inclination of 20-30 deg to the ecliptic explain an incredible
47% of all UFO reports between 2006 and 2023. Of course there is
likely to be a mix of reasons why this is so. E.g. some UFO reports
are simply mistakes for mundane objects like comets and planets. So
the movements of *some* solar system objects will be that. But some
reports indicate witnesses saw something that could not be a mistaken
asteroid or comet in the sky. So there are almost certainly other ways
a solar system object can "generate" a UFO report. Perhaps some of
these modelled UFO's are closer to what is really happening in those
cases. "Something" has travelled between objects in the solar system
according to some simple rule and eventually found its way to earth
and is expected to eventually leave and continue its travels.

We also see in the table there is a "secondary bump" at 110-120 deg.
This is not coincidentally at 90 deg to the major bump. Oftentimes in
orbital mechanics objects move in planes at right angles to each
other. As has been noted before, search into the infamous "Planet
X" note that asteroids located at one inclination "predicted" there
should be another set at an orthogonal inclination and when that was
found it was evidence "Planet X" may exist.

It's also the case that an incl of 120 is a retrograde orbit 60
degrees away from the ecliptic.

In very early work we recall yet other methods tended to indicate UFO
sightings had an affinity of retrograde asteroids (found by direct
correlation with relevant object movements as noted in Horizons data).

So if you were in an exploring mood and wanted to find a bunch of
whatever these UFO things are, then flying by asteroids with an IN=20
or IN=120 might be a way of finding some.

We'll look at other parameters that might allow us to narrow down the
search even more. Up-coming posts will look at:

albedo percent of light reflected by an object.
Do "bright" or "dark" asteroids have an affinity for UFO's?
ec eccentricity.
Circular, elliptical, or parabolic orbit?
qr Closest approach to the sun.
rad Object radius.
rotper Object rotation period.
h Standard magnitude -- equiv to the visual magnitude of an
asteroid when view from 1 au given it is also 1 au from
the sun.
g "surface roughness".
A parameter that modifies the visual magnitude of an asteroid
by taking into account the angle of sunlight hitting its
surface and the angle the reflection must be to be seen on
earth.

--
[Secret UFO recovery program blown open:]
I hope this revelation serves as an ontological shock sociologically
and provides a generally uniting issue for nations of the world to
re-assess their priorities.
-- David Grusch, 05 Jun 2023
[Talking to Les Kean et al for The Debrief, Grusch called for an end to
nearly a century of global UFO secrecy and warned that humanity needed to
prepare itself for "an unexpected, non-human intelligence contact scenario"].

The US govt portrays itself as the world's preeminent
superpower, so to acknowledge that there are things in their
airspace, whatever they are, that are faster and more manoeuvrable
and run rings around fast jets doesn't play very well.
So there's the embarrassment factor, and maybe a little bit of
fear that either an adversary has made a quantum leap in
development, which has left the US in a poor second place, or, as
some believe, this really is extra terrestrial, in which case we're
not at the top of the food chain anymore.
-- Nick Pope, 02 May 2023

We are not afraid to entrust the American people with unpleasant facts,
foreign ideas, alien philosophies, and competitive values. For a nation that
is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market
is a nation that is afraid of its people.
-- JFK

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