how to find missing people

[kymho...@gmail.com]

Like many of my titles, this one is a bit cryptic.

But the idea is pretty simple. I've been using a simple model of "ufo
movement" around the solar system. Each ufo in the sim moves from
asteroid (planet, comet, moon, whatever) to asteroid based on a small
number of probabilities. Each eventually decides to leave its current
location and go somewhere new. It selects Earth based on one
probability param. Otherwise it goes to the closest asteroid on a list
of preferred destinations. It proceeds to a destination at a constant
speed, approaching it on a curve based on the motions of its prev
location and the new target. When it arrives it lands and stays a
number of days depending on a probabilistic coin-toss each (Earth)
day. If it happened be on Earth then each day before it leaves there
is another prob it will be seen (or is "involved" with some other
activity) on each day until it leaves.

The problem set the various AI's is to find the probabilities and
speed parameters, plus the list of preferred destinations from a list
of mn of possible objects, that finds the best match to a given
dataset of "events" (e.g. UFO sightings, power outages, cattle
mutilations, or whatever).

But a simple program that uses efficient optimisation methods manages
to find (we expect) fairly good approximations of the best solutions possible.

Originally this model was used to match up with day-by-day UFO
sightings. But there is no reason it can't try to match up with any
daily dataset we have. We might want to see if ufo's moving around out
there can explain sightings of lake monsters (maybe we should think of
some of them as USO's and not sea serpents), airplane crashes, or --
as we will look at today -- missing people.

The dataset I will look at appears almost unique. It's a list put out
by the AUS govt of long-term missing people. While there is still a
prospect of being alive, a person remains on the list if they have
been missing for more than a couple years and no-one has heard from
them yet there is no suspected foul play, no body has been found, and
the relevant bank accounts have not been accessed. They have -- to
coin a phrase -- dropped off the planet. Some of the people on the
list have been MIA for 60-70 years. But the very great thing about the
list apart from being public and having many details about the missing
that might be useful for internet sleuths to track them down is -- the
last day they were seen is also noted.

So we can ask our simulation programs -- can you find a set of
asteroids (or comets, etc) such that if things move around between
them in a regular way, sometimes visiting earth on their travels, can
the number of these visits "match up" with the dates that long-term
missing people have been last seen alive?

As usual we know the answer.

But the next big idea is -- we can find out where they may have gone
to. The simulation can be hacked to keep track of where objects were
last before they came to Earth, and where they went to next after they
left Earth. If the simulation with the right parameters explains
e.g. >1/2 the missing person cases then the simulation MAY hint at who
took them, where they came from, where they hang out, and where they
went to.

But first a special underlining. As we've seen before with many things
that UFO's are reputedly involved with, there are a divergence of
answers. It may be that certain UFO's are somehow related to adding to
the number of missing people on our lists. But it may also be that
some types of UFO's may be responsible for making the lists shorter
than they would have been otherwise. I.e. UFO cops or just "concerned
citizens" that ride herd on the not-so-nice types. And even for those
UFO's that may be involved in upward spikes of missing persons cases,
we can't be sure HOW this increase comes about. The folklore talks
about people being beamed up by UFO's. But it might also be that 3rd
parties do the kidnapping for some reason RELATED to the appearance of
some UFO. E.g. the folklore also talks about someone that saw
something and told someone something suddenly disappears and is
suspected of being kept incommunicado until further notice at some
undisclosed location that makes Gitmo look like a holiday camp.

So with these things in mind let's look at the first thing that came
off the rank when I ran it a few hrs back.

The procedure I'm using normally shuffles through all kinds of ways of
selecting subsets of asteroids (&ct) as well as other ways to
methodically go through all values of the probability parameters to
try to make the result as close to the (in this case) day by day
missing person list from 1940-2020. It divides all the mns of
asteroids known up by distance from the sun, and angle above the plane
of the earth's orbit (ecliptic). And it proceeds to go through every
combination -- at least *conceptually* :) -- until it maximises the
match.

But the very first solution it came up with today already explains 1/2
the missing people on the AUS govt list.

But as I warned you -- there are 2 answers. One model it found based
on a list of asteroids and probabilities shows a close match to the
missing person list with the correlation POSITIVE. I.e. somehow more
UFO's of this type arriving day by day (and presumably later leaving
after some days of stay) seem to relate fairly exactly to up-swings in
missing people day by day. But there is an even more explanatory
model which has a NEGATIVE correlation. Somehow for this list of
asteroids and parameters more UFO's of THIS type arriving on earth day
by day are associated with a lower number of missing persons than
would have otherwise been the case.

For the +ve (bad) case the program lists the following asteroids and
comets as being involved as maybe a list of hangout locations:

50099205
90000223
90004332
90002119
90001018
90000220
90004391
90000221
90004436
90004443
90000222
90001017
90002971
90002521

These are code numbers set up by JPL to track the relevant objects.
The "9" numbers refer to one visit of some comet. The "5" is an
asteroid. The "9" digit itself means those comets are associated
somehow the Pluto (because comets normally come from "far out").
While the "5" is associated with Jupiter aka one of the main asteroid
belts around the sun.

The probability parameters found to best match (at least to begin
with) the missing person list are:

Pearth Speed Pleave Pinvolved R2
0.0654938 0.737553 0.00101227 0.390938 0.47913217

This is saying that UFO's travelling between the list of asteroids
(and earth) do so around .7 AU/d. A pretty good clip. That's 6 days
from Jupiter to Earth. No months. When a UFO captain decides to leave
wherever they are, they select earth 6.5% of the time. When they
arrive at their destination they keep thinking about leaving. The
leaving prob is around 1 in 1000. I.e. they tend to stay around 3y
when they do land. And the "Pinvolved" means of these UFO's about 40%
of them somehow are involved in raising the number of missing persons
on the relevant list.

Taking all the parameters into account the simulation finds about 48%
of missing person cases happen when UFO's from the above list of
asteroids are on Earth. More go missing if there are more of these
UFO's hanging around. Less if less UFO's are present. And generally 0
if none are present.


But then there is a very similar +ve solution as well. The list of
asteroids is the same (so far). But the probability parameters are a
little different:

Pearth Speed Pleave Pinvolved R2
0.0749146 0.208153 0.00961435 0.392582 0.52299472

The main difference is the Speed. The "good" guys go much slower than
the "bad" guys, above. And the arrival of good guys is 52% related to
changes in missing persons on the list. There may be obvious reasons
"bad guys" zip around and the good guys only shuffle. The missing
number rises less quickly than it would have without these "good" UFO
arrivals.

We see the "good" guys somehow have a bigger effect than the "bad" guys.
While (as far as we know) *some* people disappeared in relation to
"bad" UFO's, the net effect is beneficial or at least not horrible.

And now for the really interesting part. The simulations keep track of
where the (simulated) UFO's were before they got to Earth and where
they went after leaving Earth.

Maybe the "bad" people mostly come from or come via certain objects we
might be able to watch with telescopes and deep space radar to get a heads up.

Over the period of the data 1940-2020 the arrivals of the "bad guys"
came from these objects:

Object Number of arrivals
50099205 1
90002521 1
90004391 1
90002971 2
90004443 2
90002119 5
90001018 8
90001017 10
90004436 11
90000220 12
90004332 13
90000221 19
90000222 22
90000223 28 <-- major source of bad guys?

And the next locations after leaving earth for the bad guys were thus:

Object Number of departures
90000223 1
90000220 2
90004443 10
90004332 21
90002119 31
90004436 68 <-- major destination for kidnap victims?

Of course this is the "first cab off the rank". We really shouldn't be
looking at it unless we've examined all the cabs and found the best
one for +ve and best one for -ve correlations. *Then* we might have
some vague idea of where to expect bad guys come from and where kidnap
victims or at least the bad guys go to next. Maybe.

But it is interesting to contemplate there may be a method for
locating where people may have been dragged off to. If they did get
dragged off.

--
[Secret UFO recovery program blown open:]
I hope this revelation serves as an ontological shock sociologically
and provides a generally uniting issue for nations of the world to
re-assess their priorities.
-- David Grusch, 05 Jun 2023
[Talking to Les Kean et al for The Debrief, Grusch called for an end to
nearly a century of global UFO secrecy and warned that humanity needed to
prepare itself for "an unexpected, non-human intelligence contact scenario"].

We are not afraid to entrust the American people with unpleasant facts,
foreign ideas, alien philosophies, and competitive values. For a nation that
is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market
is a nation that is afraid of its people.
-- JFK

What REALLY happened during Roswell crash? America's most famous UFO case is
thrust back into the spotlight ...
Daily Mail Online, 17 Feb 2024 15:00Z
Three former NASA researchers have now independently challenged the Pentagon'
s 'Project Mogul' balloon theory of Roswell's UFO crash.

Former UFO boss: Pentagon needs to be less secretive
Politico, 06 Feb 2024 18:46Z
Sean Kirkpatrick says the Defense Dept would have benefited from
engaging with the public on unknown aircraft.

What has happened to the Pentagon's former UFO hunter?
The Hill, 29 Jan 2024
Why would a former Pentagon official continue a long tradition of
obfuscation and distortion about the enduring mystery of UFOs?

Floating 'Jellyfish' UFO haunted US military base in Iraq for years, says
former US Marine intelligence analyst shown infrared video by colleagues
Daily Mail, 13 Jan 2024 05:05Z
Marine broke his silence on a 2017 UFO that became 'the ghost story' of his
base. The ex-intel analyst stated that 'the ...

The UFO Mysteries Scientists Can't Solve
Newsweek, 25 Dec 2023 19:24Z
"We need to put science at the forefront of every strange thing we observe,"
one planetary scientist told Newsweek.

UK missile base tracks `UFO' leaving RAF experts baffled and sparking
top-secret probe
The Sun, 21 Dec 2023 03:24Z
BRITAIN'S ballistic missile early warning base in Yorkshire tracked a UFO
sparking a top-secret probe, it has been revealed.