engineer creates program to calculate atm speed of different UFO's

[MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com]

If nothing else, this kind of article shows we're starting to accept UFO's
in mainstream science and engineering. Which must be A Good Thing.

An interesting article. Basically calculates the theoretical speed in
an atm of different UFO shapes given the best possible engines we
can imagine while glossing over the details of how it works.

Of course it doesnt take into account any special "new physics" help
the aircraft may be given by e.g. manipulation of space itself.
Possible "space warping" could bring to the table effects that
underwater would be equivalent to "super cavitation" and enable far
higher speeds in an atm than conventional physics would imagine.

As to what the craft can be clocked doing, we have those grainy Navy
vids to go by.

Quite a few months back I wrote a little CV program that reads the HUD
instruments and deduces what the object visible in the images is doing.
(Basically you know the angle above/below the Navy arcraft and the
altitude on the HUD shows you one side of a triangle in relation to
the ocean surface. Do the trig and use some estimating and you at
least get some bounds).

Most of the vids show objects seemingly ziping around fast but in
reality they calculate to be almost never getting above the speed of sound.

Their main trick is the YUGE acceleartion they can turn on -- many
segments of the vids show objects making at *least* 40g turns, esp in
one secgment where an object dives toward the sea but flattens out
and continues at fairly high speed at seemingly close proximity to wave tops.

Doing 40+g turns without visible conventional lift surfaces or engine
ports is one trick.

Whether or not there is an (organic?) pilot in there is a question,
but all aircraft our tech produces -- even pilotless -- mechanically
can not do more than 20g turns before (given we dont need to worry
about wings falling off because they dont really have any)
the electronics gets crushed. PCB mounts and most fasteners,
not to mention wire looms, can't take being shot out
of a canon, esp several times over the course of (what we see anyway)
5-10 minutes.



<https://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/1464294/ufo-sightings-us-navy-scientist-calculates-speed-ufos-pentagon-report-aliens-evg>

'Advanced technology' Scientist calculates how fast UFOs filmed by US
Navy really are

UFOS are real and we now know just how fast they really are. After the
US Pentagon published its anticipated UFO report, scientists have
calculated how "advanced technology" could explain the mysterious
phenomena.

Sebastian Kettley
16:30, Sun, Jul 18, 2021

UFO: Experts discuss Pentagon's investigation

Alien or not, UFOs are zipping around in our skies and the US
govt has acknowledged as much. On June 25, the US [41]Pentagon
published the findings of its investigation into more than 100
unidentified aerial phenomena or UAPs - military jargon for UFOs. Many
of these UFO sightings were made by US military personnel and have
been leaked to the internet over the years.

...

To better understand just how truly incredible these objects are, a
team of scientists has devised a tool calculating their speeds.

The so-called UFO Travel Calculator calculates UFO speeds by applying
engineering and aeronautical principles to what very well may be
"advanced technology".

Hosted on the Omni Calculator Project, creator and mechanical engineer
Rahul Singh Dhari told Express.co.uk many of these UFOs'
characteristics could not be replicated by our modern-day technology.

This does not mean the UFOs are alien; after all the Pentagon's report
found at least one sighting could be explained by a balloon.

However, Mr Dhari thinks UFOs can be taken much more seriously if we
look at them through the lens of science and engineering.

He said: "This calculator considers the UFOs as flying objects of some
advanced technology and takes it on from a design engineering
perspective.

"Like with our modern aircraft, I have tried to design them from
essential variables - like wing loading and thrust to weight ratio.

"Based on those parameters and certain assumptions, we can try to
estimate their speeds."

You can visit the UFO Travel Calculator here, to see for yourself how
fast these objects travel.

Using the tool, you can pit one of many known UFO types against
conventional propulsion systems like the RD-0146 rocket engine.

The flying saucer-shaped Tic Tac, for instance, is estimated to weigh
more than 47,000 pounds (21,320kg) with a span of 44.6ft (13.6m).

Armed with a single engine of unknown origin, the spacecraft could hit
speeds of more than 11,800mph.

At such speeds, a journey between London and San Francisco - 5,351
miles - would only last 27 minutes.

...

--
Why the military should work with scientists to study the UFO phenomenon
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Satellites from the mothership? UND professors say UFOs that buzzed US
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A recently-released govt report and grainy but compelling videos
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[Swamp Ape!]
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Poll: 60% say they think govt is holding back info on UFOs
The Hill on MSN.com, 14 Jul 2021 20:41Z
A majority of US voters say they think that the govt is holding back
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[Space War!]
Report Urges US Space Force to Begin Preparing for Space Military Action
The Debrief, 14 Jul 2021
The Air Force Research Laboratory recently published a report urging
officials in the United States Space Force to prepare for action in the
areas surrounding Earth and its moon, hypothesizing that it could soon
become the next point of global military interest.
<https://thedebrief.org/report-urges-u-s-space-force-to-begin-preparing-for-space-military-action/>

[Kym Horsell]

I did this calculation some time back.
But I noticed a reason to post it now. :)

I belatedly noticed a paper in prep by Avi Loeb and Pentagon UFO
hunter Sean Kirkpatrick that says it's "possible" an alien mothership is
lurking around in our solar system.

Well blow me down.

You can calculate where the mothership might be lurking by trying to
figure an orbit for it that might explain a lot of the UFO activity we
are seeing down here on planet Dirt. And I've done that a little
while ago. Make sure you're sitting down for this one because the answer might spook you out.

We might assume that if "they" are here and are somehow interested in
us they may have setup shop somewhere in the ecliptic -- the plane of
the Earth's orbit. The biggest energy expenditure to go from A to B in
the solar system is shifting between orbital planes. Getting to an
asteroid at a high inclination to the ecliptic is harder than one at
lower inclination. You generally need a bigger delta-v budget for us
mere mortals that still move anywhere by shoving a bunch of garbage
out the other direction as fast possible. And a bigger delta-v might still cost a flying saucer pilot a gilder so even they might be interested in trying to do the trip as cheap as possible.

So we might start by looking for say a circular orbit (another
assumption) in the plane of the ecliptic such that the distance or
some function of the distance between that orbit and the Earth's orbit
goes up and down very much in synch with UFO activity.

The big test would be -- how WELL does that explain the ups and downs
of UFO activity over say the last 30 years.

Here comes the punch-line. It turns out a simple orbit explains "most"
UFO sightings. It explains them better than the orbit of any planet in our solar
system. While some planets seem to explain "some" of the month
to month changes in UFO numbers, they in no way explain as much as a
circular orbit that this one might be the one chosen by a visiting mothership.

So we can do the number crunching. It's actually a very simple program
that assumes the mothership orbits in a circular orbit at a constant
rate (i.e. eccentricity = 0), and the Earth does it's thing in its own
pretty much circular orbit. For each month calculate the average
distance between the mothership and the earth and see how much it goes
up and down in synch with the UFO activity reported e.g. to the
NUFORC. And twiddle around adjusting the orbit until you get the best
possible match and that match is also statistically robust e.g. could
not occur by just chance more than 1 time in 100.

So the program I played with found this solution:

The mothership is very very close to us. It's orbit is around 1.1 AU
out from the Sun. At some times of the year it gets exceedingly close.
At other times of the year it's on the other side of the sun. The
program finds in Jan 2000 it would have been around 60 degrees ahead
of us in its orbit. At that time the Earth would have been around
perihelion. 60 degrees ahead -- if you do some figuring with star
charts -- puts it 30 deg to the right of Procyon around that time.

And, as I say, the proof of this pudding is how well the orbit matches
up with UFO sightings -- almost 60% of them could be explained by how
close this hypothetical mothership would be to earth all the time
between Jan 2000 and now. It's often estimated that about 10% of UFO
reports represent "real" unusual stuff. But in this case a mothership
orbiting just outside the Earth's orbit would explain a whole lot more
and point to many more people being totally sober and of sound mind
when seeing things in the sky than previously thought.

For the stats heads the output from a regression that matches up the
hypothetical orbit 1.1 AU and 60 deg ahead of Earth in Jan 2000
against NUFORC reports up to March 2006 (when the methodology of collecting reports changed) looks like:

Time Series Regression
(AUTO CORR CORRECTION; estimated rho = 0.194666)
y = -14.6954*log(x) + 24.1855
beta in -14.6954 +- 2.55232 90% CI
alpha in 24.1855 +- 1.97068
T-test: P(beta<0) = 1.000000
Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = -0.715454
Critical value = 0.432000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.56109083

I.e. the stats suggests the mothership people find it very easy to
travel between there and here. The "cost" seems to be according to the
log of the distance between there and here, not the linear
distance or some higher power of the distance -- the LOGARITHM of the
distance. This then sounds like some fancy kind of drive they use. Which is
expected. Because they probably don't use chemical rockets if they came here from somewhere else.

2 statistical tests find the formula is highly significant -- it could
not be expected to happen by luck alone. Each test says there is less
than 1% probability there is no connection between something in this orbit and UFO reports. Together the 2 tests
suggest maybe only 1 chance in 1000 or maybe even 1 chance in 10,000
it could just be luck.

The R2 number says 56% of month-to-month variation in UFO
sightings are predicted by the formula. I have seen better models for
predicting UFO activity -- some of them go to better than 90% -- but
this is by far the simplest formula. Essentially a simple calculation
and no other measurements will predict UFO activity out to years in the
future. If the aliens don't find out we might know where they are. :)

--
"Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood.
Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less."
- Marie Curie

But what is true and I'm actually being serious here, is there are, there's
footage and records of objects in the skies that we don't know exactly what
they are, We can't explain how they moved, their trajectory. They did not
have an easily explainable pattern.
-- Pres Barack Obama, "The Late Show", 2021

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The Canadian government's top scientist has launched a study into UFOs and
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[Kym Horsell]

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 6:46:58 AM UTC+11, Kym Horsell wrote:
> I did this calculation some time back.
> But I noticed a reason to post it now. :)
>
> I belatedly noticed a paper in prep by Avi Loeb and Pentagon UFO
> hunter Sean Kirkpatrick that says it's "possible" an alien mothership is
> lurking around in our solar system.
>
> Well blow me down.
>
> You can calculate where the mothership might be lurking by trying to
> figure an orbit for it that might explain a lot of the UFO activity we
> are seeing down here on planet Dirt. And I've done that a little
> while ago. Make sure you're sitting down for this one because the answer might spook you out.

...

I ran a bit more modeling for this problem and have the inevitable couple gifs and movies.

A ran a better optimizing program on the more recent UFO data and discovered almost the same solution -- an object in a circular orbit 1.1 AU from the Sun and offset from the Earth's position by around 90 deg in Jan 2000 fits the bill to explain a large chunk of modern UFO sightings.

The "map" (below) shows the "solution space" for the problem. For each value of R (distance from the Sun) and offset (deg from earth position in Jan 2000) we can calculate how well an object orbiting there will match up against UFO sightings. The map shows all combinations. Only a few are "yellow" (good) and a lot are blue (works but not explaining more than 5-10% of UFO sightings). The circle shows the solution the program found that is much better than all the yellow points shown in the map.

<http://kym.massbus.org/UFO/MOTHERSHIP/mothershipmap.gif>

We can also plot the model found out in terms of a little dot on the map of the solar system chasing around after the Earth. I've made a movie of that. An inset graph shows how much the model "looks like" a big chunk of the UFO sightings. Over the period 2006-2023 it has 3 peaks as the mothership approches earth within ~0.2AU. The UFO sightings have "similar" (not exactly!) the same peaks. The model is good enough to predict what will happen for the rest of this year and next year.

<http://kym.massbus.org/UFO/MOTHERSHIP/mothershipmovie.avi>

From the "map" you can see I looked at solutions where the mothership orbits INSIDE the Earth's 1 AU orbit. Some points "work" a little.

But the outer orbit is the best fit. Logically, you want to be close to your host planet, if that's what we are, and if you have the high ground and can just drop things using the sun's gravity to get them delivered then Great Savings too!

In a later post I'll cover what kinds of things seem to correlate highly to potential objects flying from the modelled mothership orbit.
As you can imagine all the bad things you heard about Grey Aliens have some statistical backup. Some. E.g. I noticed straight off the bat certain FBI records match up with out potential mothership fairly well. Kidnap victims that were never found. Others that were found but -- for some reason -- can't rmember anything, even their own names. But dont worry -- only 10-20% of some categories of kidnap victim match up and there are the usual signs that some activity is -ve and some is +ve (either preventative or reversing the actions of the other group).

This is all just statistical fun and games. But the trouble is ... it matches up with all kinds of reports too well to be too funny.