Dec 30, 2023: another big night in SE Aus

[kymho...@gmail.com]

Coming down to the end of the year and (of course) it's been a big
year for UFO research.

Where I am some distance out from a big international airport
we've seen lots of interesting stuff over the past few years.
If anything was going on before ~2018, it didn't register with me. :)

A couple years back we got a spectacular UFO 2 nights running
right at the end of the year -- Dec 30 and Dec 31.
It came from the west gliding majestically toward the E.

One one night it continued to glide to the W where it gets lost to view
behind big gumtrees -- apparently remnants of huge forests that used
to live around here before the 1980s but now only a few stands are
left along most active roads.
The other night it took a sharp left hand turn with it reached the N
and headed off in that dir.

When I say it was bright, it's hard to describe what that is.
Not at bright as the sun. To give you an idea. ;)
If you remember old Xmas cards there was sometimes an Xmas tree with
a star on the top. Almost always from what I remember as a kid
the star was shown as surrounded by a halo. Unusually, a diamond halo
with the main points going up and down.
This object was like that. Eye wateringly bright, gold, and surrounded
by a diamond with the main points up and down.

Last night we had something of a repeat. Despite clouds coming in at
almost 9pm on the dot -- like they was remote-controlled ;) -- we
still managed to see sometime after that a Jupiter-bright light come
from the W or WNE, glide left to right across the N sky, and turn to
the N and disappear off in that dir. Yellow not gold. No
diamond-shaped aura. Took maybe a min total.

The "reaction" was pretty swift. Planes and choppers started buzzing
around in the distance for the next 30-60 mins. Strange thing -- we
didn't see any of them. Apparently they are now shy and like to keep
low and over the horizon. Or maybe they were all above the clouds that
kept on coming.

But we also got to see -- after the main attraction -- a "few" more
lights. Very dim white dots moving around in different directions
approx in the top LH corner of Orion that was high to the NE at the
time. It might be my imagination but the appearance of the dots that
dragged out to 1-2 mins may have increased the amount of buzzing
around from light aircraft and choppers.

Eventually the clouds got so thick nothing much could be seen of the
sky. So I went in.

I'll be out there again tonight to see if it comes back to reprise its
role from a couple ys back. Maybe it happens many years, but I just
never noticed. The interesting thing about the end of Dec is the
earth is getting very close to its closest approach to the sun. After
about Jan 4 we start moving away. Maybe just slightly further for
someone or something to go.

Oh, yes. The clouds. I mentioned some time back they seem to have
changed. For the last few years I've become used to going out of a
night and at certain times see different lights moving around the sky.
Some of these no doubt are sats. But some seem to behave much
different from sats. During the pandemic they had the sky to
themselves. After the international airport re-opened a couple years
back the number of nightly visits dropped a lot. But it did
continue. As AUS got back into the post-pandemic swing you even got to
see more interesting things like lights being chased by light
aircraft. Even the odd head-to-head clash with a light aircraft and a
light seemingly playing games of chicken overhead. Going toward each
other until one or other of them swerved. The cases I noticed seemed
to end one way. The light never swerved. :)

But then sometime in the last year it always seemed to be thick clouds
would suddenly appear just before the interesting times of day and
block out the whole sky. Only to disappear again come daylight. Like
clockwork.

So I collected some data and re-ran an old checking program. We know
UFO sightings follow a weekly cycle. It seems over the US the most
sightings occur at the end of the week -- usu Fri -- with the
number ramping up from Mon to Fri, usu hitting a max on Sat and
starting to drop a bit on Sun and then plummet on Mon again.

If you were trying to stop the general population from seeing things
flying around the sky you might -- if you could -- make sure some of
those peak days are blocked off to public view. Maybe you wouldn't care
too much about the day of minimum (oftentimes zero) activity.

And, surprisingly, the clouds around SE Australia seem to follow a
similar pattern. It's as if "someone" orders them up at the right time
of day or when there is some kind of predicted flap and they appear
more or less on cue.

And the data shows this. We can look at (say) the temperature of the
cloud tops. This is something sats see easily. Where I am every hr
sats take IR pix of the clouds over SE Aus and we can collect that and
see if there is any strange pattern and, if so, when did it start up,
and if so what might have been in the newspaper headlines of the time
that might be related.

Turns out we get an output from our statistical search like this:

t05141.reg cnt=2 r2 = 0.03596745
t06141.reg cnt=2 r2 = 0.07992821
t06148.reg cnt=2 r2 = 0.02779511
t06158.reg cnt=2 r2 = 0.01896224
t06341.reg cnt=2 r2 = 0.01350938
t07141.reg cnt=2 r2 = 0.08633606
t07148.reg cnt=2 r2 = 0.05158067
t08141.reg cnt=2 r2 = 0.04896257
t08148.reg cnt=2 r2 = 0.04371421
t08151.reg cnt=2 r2 = 0.04185434
t09131.reg cnt=2 r2 = 0.04717890
t09141.reg cnt=3 r2 = 0.13094535 <-- best model
t09151.reg cnt=2 r2 = 0.10794771
t10141.reg cnt=2 r2 = 0.06564178
t10148.reg cnt=2 r2 = 0.05774184
t10151.reg cnt=2 r2 = 0.06936932

The tNNNN part are stat models the program has run. The code tells me
what it was looking at and what it did to the numbers. All the tests
above register as "statistically significant". The "cnt" says how many
stat tests run on the data showed a stat sig result. The R2 number
shows what fraction of the data is predicted by the model. It seems
the best model it can find for hourly top-of-cloud temps in my region
predicts about 13% of hours. Pretty good.

The code says what it was looking at. The best model indicates (the
"5") the pattern involves particularly cold clouds. High clouds. We
know from past work that UFO sightings correlate well with the height
of clouds. For some reason that like to travel if not inside the cloud
layer then just below it. There is apparently some thing about trying
to avoid being seen from satellites. They are less shy about being
seen from the ground but it can be a thing in some areas. Air Force
bases and such.

The other digits indicate the data is very noisy. Not new information. :)

And the "09" for the best model indicates this pattern started up in
Sept 2023. It was apparently not very obvious before then.

So we have to ask ourselves -- what might have happened in Sept 2023
that might be related to someone now wanting somewhere to see
something somewhere sometime?

Happy New Year to all.

--
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