zeroing in with a simple UFO nav model (#3)

[kymho...@gmail.com]

Knock knock knock.

We have prev looked at results from a simple planetary nav simulation
that showed basic assumptions about how "objects" might move around
the solar system closely match up with the UFO's daily reported mostly
across N America.

The prev "record" for such models was prev set at "about 1/3". IOW
about 1/3 of UFO sightings seem to be explained by assuming UFO's are
some kind of object that "decides" to fly between certain sets of
solar system objects incl the Earth, flies at fairly high speed (~1
Au/d), stays on planet dirt for around 1000d before departing on the
next leg of their continuing journey around the solar system.

The computers at Quant Base have been running hot the past few weeks
using much the same software with some small tweaks to try to zero in
on exactly what "solar system objects" might make such a model more
closely match UFO reports.

And the record now has shot up to 44%.

The programs were told to look at asteroids and comets between specific
ranges of "A" parameter -- their semi-major axis. The "A" determines
roughly how far "on average" a sun-orbiting object will be. In this
run we allowed the programs to choose any orbital inclination or
eccentricity they wanted as long as the "average distance" of the
asteroid/comet/planet was within a specific range. Then we set the
programs running on a small cluster for every possible range between 1
and 40 au.

The top 10 results were as follows:


Model Earth% Speed PrLeave Seen RptFunc R2
a2-8 0.0563935 0.611105 0.00104546 0.129482 xylog2r 0.43724663
a6-7 0.0626074 0.561825 0.000948872 0.149408 xlog2r 0.40559182
a3-10 0.0571474 0.683188 0.00102692 0.405158 xylog2r 0.38516793
a3-6 0.0737591 0.201157 0.000918864 0.150088 xlog2r 0.38307646
a3-4 0.0839199 0.682362 0.00974311 0.374065 xylog 0.38254429
a4-5 0.0567352 0.611347 0.000998526 0.146457 log 0.37525688
a9-10 0.0739486 0.209567 0.00109 0.150709 log2r 0.36904168
a10-40 0.0653336 0.56027 0.00098026 0.377742 xylog2r 0.35584814
a2-10 0.0780973 0.552673 0.000930639 0.135055 xlog2r 0.34529425
a5-20 0.0633632 0.20773 0.00973488 0.1842 xlog2r 0.34436656

The "model column gives the A range, the next 4 columns give numerical
parameters of each sim, the 6th is the code for the function that
takes the daily number of "visitors" that are "landed" (according to
the sim) on planet Earth, and the last column shows how well as a
bunch of numbers between 2006 and 2023 this matches up with UFO
reports logged at the NUFORC.

As usual for these things the match had to be "statistically close".
Other programs decide whether one list of numbers (the simulator's
idea of how many objects on a given day have now landed on earth and
not taken off for another asteroid/planet) is similar to the other
list of numbers (the NUFORC's day-by-day number of reports as of end
2023). The statistical tests include a T-test on the final \beta
linking how many sightings with how many reports, and the ordering of
simulator daily counts with NUFORC daily counts. Both tests had to
pass at better than 90% confidence -- i.e. around 1 chance in 10 the
similarity could just be down to coincidence.

The R2 (the so-called "explanation power") is a statistic that
measures how the variations in the simulator results look like the UFO
reporting numbers and generally we would like that to be as close to
100% as possible. :)

44% is pretty darn good for such a simple basic model -- that UFO's go
from asteroid to asteroid at constant speed, continually aiming at
their present target. When they get there they wait day by day until a
probability flip says to leave, in which case their next dest is
chosen as Earth by prob "Earth%" or some other object on their
"preferred destination" list. Each day we calculate how many UFO's
have made it to Earth and not left yet.

All very simple.

But armed with a list of the objects between 2AU and 8AU from the Sun
seems to explain getting on to 1/2 the UFO reports received.

Now, my list of asteroids/comets in the range 2-8 AU is by no means
complete. My AI programs download bits and pieces they see fit from
time to time depending on what projects that are working on. So they
tend to download bits and pieces from the Horizons database at JPL as
they see fit. Meaning the list of asteroids they have at any point is
kinda "random" but in a "random" way.

But they have 1.2 mn objects between 2 and 8 AU from the Sun.
Almost all are asteroids. About 1600 are comets that came and went
from the region between 2006 and 2023. Potentially, some comets might
have appeared more than once in that time. There are even fewer
planets in the region. Just Jupiter. The AI part of the operation
decided to leave Jupiter out of the run that was made, above. It has
determined that leaving planets INTO these simulations actually
reduces the R2. IOW it seems UFO's may not be planet-based. They
"live" in the gaps -- the asteroids and comets. In particular here --
all asteroids between Mars and Saturn. Depending on how you classify
"belt" that includes at least 2 asteroid belts. Not just one.

Of course we can't classify all UFO's as belonging to this
characterisation. UFO reports obviously do include mistaken
sightings of meteors, comets and maybe event sudden brightening
events out there in the solar system. These things we might call
"mundane reasons". This will throw off our rough
generalizations. Some important types of UFO's may therefore come
from different places in the solar system.

But we have at least nailed down the idea that some chunk of them
seemingly play in the region between Mars and Saturn and maybe target
Earth as well for whatever reason. That "6%" in the sim param list
suggests Earth is chosen as a target far more than just luck. There
are mns of other asteroids a UFO could aim for when it decides to
leave where-ever it is now and go to somewhere else. The prob of
selecting earth should be 100s or 1000s of times less than 6% if it
was just another possible target.

So we are left with the following mental model: UFO's come from
anywhere between Mars and Saturn. They target Earth for some
reason. Their avg speed is around .6 Au/d when in flight. Their avg
stay anywhere is around 3y (1/.001 days). When they are lolling around
Earth their prob of being spotted on any given day is around 1 chance
in 5. They are not going out of their way to be seen. But they are not
in hiding either.

Together with other evidence from the game theory models we are
starting, perhaps, to get a feel of what we are dealing with. This
could be a fun time. Even if there are some scuffles coming up, if I
have learned NOTHING from watching Dragonball for the past 10-20y it's
that even your toughest, bitterest non-human enemy today can be the
mother of your kids tomorrow.

--
"[F]or the few cases in all domains--space, air, and sea--that do
demonstrate potentially anomalous characteristics, AARO exists to help the
DOD, IC, and interagency resolve those anomalous cases. In doing so, AARO is
approaching these cases with the highest level of objectivity and analytic
rigor. This includes physically testing and employing modeling and
simulation to validate our analyses and underlying theories, and
peer-reviewing those results within the US govt, industry partners,
and appropriately cleared academic institutions before reaching any
conclusions."
-- Dr Sean Kirkpatrick, Senate Hearings on UFOs, 19 Apr 2023.

Unidentified aerial phenomena I. Observations of events
B.E. Zhilyaev, V. N. Petukhov, V. M. Reshetnyk
Main Astronomical Observatory, NAS of Ukraine,
Zabalotnoho 27, 03680, Kyiv, Ukraine
[...] We present a broad range of UAPs. We see them everywhere. We observe a
significant number of objects whose nature is not clear. Flights of single,
group and squadrons of the ships were detected, moving at speeds from 3 to
15 degrees per second. Some bright objects exhibit regular brightness
variability in the range of 10 - 20 Hz. Two-site observations of UAPs at a
base of 120 km with 2 synchronised cameras allowed the detection of
a variable object, at an altitude of 1170 km. It flashes for one hundredth
of a second at an average of 20 Hz. [...]
An object contrast makes it possible to estimate the distance using
colourimetric methods. [Objects with 0 albedo] are observed in the
troposphere at distances up to 10-12 km. We estimate their size from 3 to 12
meters and speeds up to 15 km/s. [...]
[Astronomers in Ukraine have undertaken their own independent survey
of objects they see flying over the Kyiv region at speeds around 15
km/sec. They are watching the daytime sky at the zenith and in front
of the moon. They see many objects -- some bright and some dark,
different sizes. They travel often singly but sometimes in large
groups. They report brightness is linked with speed. The spectrum
of bright objects is reportedly not reflected sunlight. Objects
have been spotted inside the atm upto ~10 km but also out to ~1000 km
above the earth, travelling up to ~1000 km/sec. They are not likely
anything sent by Russia or any other country].

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