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Ten Years after Katrina: African Americans in New Orleans and the Evacuation Divide* aka Poisoning Houston Texas.
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Lets Blame Bush Again
Oct 10, 2015, 4:59:52 AM10/10/15
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It’s been ten years since Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf
Coast. Katrina’s flooding and destruction in New Orleans was
made worse by a levee system that failed and an ineffective
evacuation plan that left thousands of residents stranded in the
wake of the storm. In 2005, as Katrina approached New Orleans,
many residents did not have access to a motor vehicle and were
dependent on public transportation or government evacuation
plans. In his Fivethirtyeight column, Ben Casselman has
explained how the composition of New Orleans’ population has
changed in the decade since Katrina. In this post I compare the
most recent data on New Orleans residents’ access to motor
vehicles to the situation in 2005 and to cities along the Gulf
Coast that face the highest risk of a hurricane. Although a
substantially higher fraction of New Orleans residents are now
able to pack up their belongings and evacuate the city in their
own car or truck compared to 2005, there is less access to
vehicles in New Orleans than in other gulf cities. Consequently,
some New Orleans residents, especially children and the elderly
in the African American community, remain dependent on public
transportation and government evacuation plans if another strong
hurricane were to hit the city.
The following table ranks U.S. cities by their hurricane
frequency, or the expected number of years between hurricanes
reaching the city. New Orleans is tied for twentieth on this
list, with one hurricane expected to arrive every 2.27 years.
U.S. Cities Ranked by Frequency of Hurricanes
Rank City State County Hurricane Freq.
1 Cape Hatteras NC Dare 1.36
2 Morehead City NC Carteret 1.54
3 Wilmington NC New Hanover 1.74
4 Boca Raton FL Palm Beach 1.93
5 Miami FL Miami-Dade 1.99
6 Hollywood FL Broward 2.01
6 Boynton Beach FL Palm Beach 2.01
6 Tarpon Springs FL Pinellas 2.01
6 Savannah GA Chatham 2.01
10 Palm Beach FL Palm Beach 2.04
10 Myrtle Beach SC Horry 2.04
12 Tampa FL Hillsborough 2.07
13 Lake Worth FL Palm Beach 2.13
13 Saint Augustine FL St. John’s 2.13
15 Deerfield Beach FL Broward 2.17
15 Jupiter FL Palm Beach 2.17
17 Sarasota FL Sarasota 2.20
18 Fort Lauderdale FL Broward 2.23
18 Beaufort SC Beaufort 2.23
20 New Orleans LA Orleans 2.27
20 Delray Beach FL Palm Beach 2.27
20 Homosassa FL Citrus 2.27
The cities ranked in the top twenty (including ties) for
Hurricane frequency are located in fifteen counties including
Orleans Parish where New Orleans is located. I used the 2013
Public Use Microdata from the American Community Survey to
calculate the fraction of county residents who live in
households with no motor vehicles available. In addition, for
New Orleans, I made the same calculation based on the 2005
survey.
The following table shows that in 2005, 23.1 percent of New
Orleans residents did not have access to a motor vehicle, but
that fraction declined to 14.5 percent by 2013. Nonetheless, a
higher fraction of New Orleans residents will rely on public
transportation or a government evacuation plan, compared to
other counties likely to face a major storm.
Access to Vehicles in Counties with Most Hurricanes
County State Residents with No Vehicle
Orleans 2005 LA 23.1%
Orleans 2013 LA 14.5%
Broward FL 5.2%
Citrus FL 2.8%
Hillsborough FL 5.2%
Miami-Dade FL 7.6%
Palm Beach FL 5.4%
Pinellas FL 5.6%
Sarasota FL 4.0%
St. Johns FL 3.6%
Chatham GA 6.5%
Carteret NC 4.2%
Dare NC 6.3%
New Hanover NC 4.4%
Beaufort SC 2.1%
Horry SC 5.3%
I then compared the share of a county’s population with access
to a motor vehicle separately for whites and African Americans.
I also examined the situation for each county’s most vulnerable
residents – those age 18 and younger or age 65 and older.
Because some counties most likely to be struck by a hurricane
are much less densely populated than New Orleans, I limited this
comparison to the more populated counties.
The following table illustrates that African American residents
are less likely to have access to a vehicle than white
residents, regardless of county. In most counties the children
and the elderly are also more likely to be dependent on public
transportation.
Access to Vehicles by County, Race and Age
% of Residents with No
Vehicles Available
African American
White Residents
County State Year All Ages
Age<=18
or
Age>=65
All Ages
Age<=18
or
Age>=65
Orleans LA 2005 28.5% 33.9% 11.8% 11.4%
Orleans LA 2013 20.3% 21.1% 5.7% 3.8%
Broward FL 2013 7.0% 8.8% 4.6% 5.8%
Hillsborough FL 2013 10.1% 12.0% 3.9% 4.5%
Miami-Dade FL 2013 15.0% 16.5% 5.9% 8.0%
Palm Beach FL 2013 8.2% 7.7% 4.6% 6.1%
Horry SC 2011-13 15.1% 18.3% 2.6% 2.1%
The data reveal that in 2005 over one third of African American
children and elderly residents of New Orleans did not have
access to a motor vehicle and were likely dependent on public
transportation or a government evacuation plan. By 2013 this
fraction declined to 21.1% but access to vehicles among the
African American community in New Orleans is lower than in
Myrtle Beach, Miami, Tampa and other Gulf Coast communities.
All communities along the Gulf Coast, especially New Orleans,
develop plans to insure public safety during a major storm.
Because African American residents of these communities tend to
have lower income and less financial wealth, they also tend to
have less access to a vehicle.
While an improved levee system will avert another Katrina, New
Orleans has the toughest challenge among Gulf Coast cities
because more of its residents face obstacles to an evacuation
when hurricane warnings are issued. There is a substantial
“evacuation divide” in New Orleans. Only 3.8 percent of white
children and elderly residents live in households without access
to a vehicle, but over one in five African American children and
residents age 65 and above can’t ride away from New Orleans in a
car or truck when it is time to evacuate because there are no
vehicles available to their household.
*This is a guest post by Stephen Bronars, Partner at Edgeworth
Economics, Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago.
His opinions are his own.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/modeledbehavior/2015/08/30/ten-years-
after-katrina-african-americans-in-new-orleans-and-the-
evacuation-divide/
Coast. Katrina’s flooding and destruction in New Orleans was
made worse by a levee system that failed and an ineffective
evacuation plan that left thousands of residents stranded in the
wake of the storm. In 2005, as Katrina approached New Orleans,
many residents did not have access to a motor vehicle and were
dependent on public transportation or government evacuation
plans. In his Fivethirtyeight column, Ben Casselman has
explained how the composition of New Orleans’ population has
changed in the decade since Katrina. In this post I compare the
most recent data on New Orleans residents’ access to motor
vehicles to the situation in 2005 and to cities along the Gulf
Coast that face the highest risk of a hurricane. Although a
substantially higher fraction of New Orleans residents are now
able to pack up their belongings and evacuate the city in their
own car or truck compared to 2005, there is less access to
vehicles in New Orleans than in other gulf cities. Consequently,
some New Orleans residents, especially children and the elderly
in the African American community, remain dependent on public
transportation and government evacuation plans if another strong
hurricane were to hit the city.
The following table ranks U.S. cities by their hurricane
frequency, or the expected number of years between hurricanes
reaching the city. New Orleans is tied for twentieth on this
list, with one hurricane expected to arrive every 2.27 years.
U.S. Cities Ranked by Frequency of Hurricanes
Rank City State County Hurricane Freq.
1 Cape Hatteras NC Dare 1.36
2 Morehead City NC Carteret 1.54
3 Wilmington NC New Hanover 1.74
4 Boca Raton FL Palm Beach 1.93
5 Miami FL Miami-Dade 1.99
6 Hollywood FL Broward 2.01
6 Boynton Beach FL Palm Beach 2.01
6 Tarpon Springs FL Pinellas 2.01
6 Savannah GA Chatham 2.01
10 Palm Beach FL Palm Beach 2.04
10 Myrtle Beach SC Horry 2.04
12 Tampa FL Hillsborough 2.07
13 Lake Worth FL Palm Beach 2.13
13 Saint Augustine FL St. John’s 2.13
15 Deerfield Beach FL Broward 2.17
15 Jupiter FL Palm Beach 2.17
17 Sarasota FL Sarasota 2.20
18 Fort Lauderdale FL Broward 2.23
18 Beaufort SC Beaufort 2.23
20 New Orleans LA Orleans 2.27
20 Delray Beach FL Palm Beach 2.27
20 Homosassa FL Citrus 2.27
The cities ranked in the top twenty (including ties) for
Hurricane frequency are located in fifteen counties including
Orleans Parish where New Orleans is located. I used the 2013
Public Use Microdata from the American Community Survey to
calculate the fraction of county residents who live in
households with no motor vehicles available. In addition, for
New Orleans, I made the same calculation based on the 2005
survey.
The following table shows that in 2005, 23.1 percent of New
Orleans residents did not have access to a motor vehicle, but
that fraction declined to 14.5 percent by 2013. Nonetheless, a
higher fraction of New Orleans residents will rely on public
transportation or a government evacuation plan, compared to
other counties likely to face a major storm.
Access to Vehicles in Counties with Most Hurricanes
County State Residents with No Vehicle
Orleans 2005 LA 23.1%
Orleans 2013 LA 14.5%
Broward FL 5.2%
Citrus FL 2.8%
Hillsborough FL 5.2%
Miami-Dade FL 7.6%
Palm Beach FL 5.4%
Pinellas FL 5.6%
Sarasota FL 4.0%
St. Johns FL 3.6%
Chatham GA 6.5%
Carteret NC 4.2%
Dare NC 6.3%
New Hanover NC 4.4%
Beaufort SC 2.1%
Horry SC 5.3%
I then compared the share of a county’s population with access
to a motor vehicle separately for whites and African Americans.
I also examined the situation for each county’s most vulnerable
residents – those age 18 and younger or age 65 and older.
Because some counties most likely to be struck by a hurricane
are much less densely populated than New Orleans, I limited this
comparison to the more populated counties.
The following table illustrates that African American residents
are less likely to have access to a vehicle than white
residents, regardless of county. In most counties the children
and the elderly are also more likely to be dependent on public
transportation.
Access to Vehicles by County, Race and Age
% of Residents with No
Vehicles Available
African American
White Residents
County State Year All Ages
Age<=18
or
Age>=65
All Ages
Age<=18
or
Age>=65
Orleans LA 2005 28.5% 33.9% 11.8% 11.4%
Orleans LA 2013 20.3% 21.1% 5.7% 3.8%
Broward FL 2013 7.0% 8.8% 4.6% 5.8%
Hillsborough FL 2013 10.1% 12.0% 3.9% 4.5%
Miami-Dade FL 2013 15.0% 16.5% 5.9% 8.0%
Palm Beach FL 2013 8.2% 7.7% 4.6% 6.1%
Horry SC 2011-13 15.1% 18.3% 2.6% 2.1%
The data reveal that in 2005 over one third of African American
children and elderly residents of New Orleans did not have
access to a motor vehicle and were likely dependent on public
transportation or a government evacuation plan. By 2013 this
fraction declined to 21.1% but access to vehicles among the
African American community in New Orleans is lower than in
Myrtle Beach, Miami, Tampa and other Gulf Coast communities.
All communities along the Gulf Coast, especially New Orleans,
develop plans to insure public safety during a major storm.
Because African American residents of these communities tend to
have lower income and less financial wealth, they also tend to
have less access to a vehicle.
While an improved levee system will avert another Katrina, New
Orleans has the toughest challenge among Gulf Coast cities
because more of its residents face obstacles to an evacuation
when hurricane warnings are issued. There is a substantial
“evacuation divide” in New Orleans. Only 3.8 percent of white
children and elderly residents live in households without access
to a vehicle, but over one in five African American children and
residents age 65 and above can’t ride away from New Orleans in a
car or truck when it is time to evacuate because there are no
vehicles available to their household.
*This is a guest post by Stephen Bronars, Partner at Edgeworth
Economics, Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago.
His opinions are his own.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/modeledbehavior/2015/08/30/ten-years-
after-katrina-african-americans-in-new-orleans-and-the-
evacuation-divide/
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