Al-Qaeda resurfaces in Afghanistan with new training camps, Islamic schools

[Ubiquitous]

The al-Qaeda terrorist organization is having a resurgence in Afghanistan
under the ruling Taliban, setting up eight new training camps alongside five
madrasas, Islamic educational institutions, around the country, a report from
the UN Security Council in late January has revealed.

The report said that the training camps are located in various provinces,
including Ghazni, Laghman, Parwan, and Uruzgan. It also listed sites used by
al-Qaeda to move its operatives in and out of neighboring Iran, and said that
a new base to stockpile weaponry has been established in the Panjshir Valley,
north of the capital, Kabul.

"The group maintains safe houses to facilitate the movement between
Afghanistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran in the provinces of Herat,
Farah, and Helmand, with additional safe house locations in Kabul," the
report said.

"This accommodation of al-Qaeda within Afghanistan has validated longstanding
fears voiced by many observers regarding the country once again becoming a
safe haven for terrorist organizations under Taliban rule," Shahin Modarres,
an international security analyst specializing in Iran affiliated with the
Center for Middle East and Global Order think tank, told The Media Line.

Modarres said that al-Qaeda and the Taliban, which retook rule over
Afghanistan in 2021 as US-led coalition forces left the country, have a
shared history of collaboration and ideological alignment. He said that
throughout their insurgency against the coalition forces, both organizations
maintained deep-seated ties rooted in a common jihadist worldview and mutual
support for each other's objectives.

Silvia Boltuc, managing director at the SpecialEurasia business and
geopolitical intelligence platform, told The Media Line that the political
instability sparked in Afghanistan since the return of the Taliban has
provided a conducive setting for the resurgence of terrorist operations.

"There has been a notable escalation in terrorist attacks, from roadside and
suicide bombs to rocket and mortar fire, direct fire, kidnappings, and
violent crimes," Boltuc said, adding that many incidents targeting religious
sites occurred during religious festivals.

She said that Islamic State Khorasan Province, a regional branch of the
extremist Islamic State group, has been involved in ongoing hostilities,
targeting ethnic minorities and government establishments. In addition, other
extremist groups such as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and its breakaway faction
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar have been active in the country.

The report also said that suicide bomber training camps for Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan have been set up in Kunar Province.

"The relationship between the Taliban and al-Qaeda remains close, and the
latter maintains a holding pattern in Afghanistan under Taliban patronage,"
the report said.

Al-Qaeda's presence benefits the Taliban
Modarres said that apart from the historic ties and ideological similarities
between the two groups, al-Qaeda's presence provides the Taliban with
strategic advantages, including access to experienced fighters, operational
expertise, and potential leverage in regional dynamics.

The border between Afghanistan and Iran has been tense for several years,
with the two Islamist governments, one Sunni and the other Shiite, citing
various grievances against each other, each claiming that the other is
persecuting and failing to protect their ethnic minorities. The tensions are
compounded by a longstanding dispute over the Helmand River.

Boltuc said that in the early 2000s, a slight migration of al-Qaeda leaders
towards Iran took place and Iran arrested many of them, holding them for use
in any prisoner exchanges in the case of conflict with Afghanistan.

She said that Iran possesses vast rural regions that are challenging to
govern.

"If this is seen as an advantage for al-Qaeda fighters seeking concealment,
the significant influx of undocumented Afghan migrants entering Iran annually
provides an ideal opportunity to enter the country undetected," she said.

Modarres said that al-Qaeda 's potential interest in establishing bases in
Iran reflects a strategic calculus aimed at enhancing its operational
capabilities and expanding its reach beyond Afghanistan.

"Iran's geographic proximity to Afghanistan, coupled with its complex
geopolitical dynamics, presents al-Qaeda with opportunities to establish
logistical hubs, recruit new members, and coordinate activities across
borders," he said.

Possessing bases in Iran could serve multiple purposes for al-Qaeda. He said
that these include facilitating the movement of operatives, accessing
resources and support networks, and establishing a presence in a region with
significant strategic value.

However, increased al-Qaeda activity along the border might bring local and
regional ramifications.

"The presence of al-Qaeda bases in Iran could potentially escalate tensions
along the Afghan-Iranian border and exacerbate existing regional dynamics,"
Modarres said.

He said that concerns regarding cross-border terrorism, infiltration by
militants, and security risks could lead both Afghanistan and Iran to bolster
militarization and surveillance along their mutual border. This escalation
could exacerbate tensions and potentially result in incidents. This could
also lead to further diplomatic complications between the two countries.

"Afghanistan and Iran may perceive each other as threats or adversaries,
leading to a cycle of suspicion, hostility, and potentially actions that can
lead to escalation," Modarres said.

Additionally, he said that increased tensions along the Afghan-Iranian border
might disrupt trade, worsen ethnic and sectarian rifts, and escalate local
conflicts.

"The convergence of al-Qaeda and Iran's interests may embolden other
terrorist groups and state sponsors of terrorism, leading to increased
radicalization, recruitment, and violence in the region," he said.

--
Islam is a peaceful religion, just as long as the women are beaten, the boys
buggered and the infidels are killed.