When Taiwan Falls, It Will Be Like Constantinople

[Cauf Skiviers]

We live in interesting times where every war is about democracy, and every
election is about WWIII. Yet, despite the hype, we all know so-called third
world wars never happen. Study says.

(Whenever I try to fool myself into believing something, I mentally repeat
“study says.” A critical thinking skill I learned from watching CNN.)

Or, at least, not until China says so. Xi Jinping is candid about “the use of
force and reserving the option of taking all necessary means” over the Taiwan
issue, which he insists “cannot be passed down from generation to
generation.” It’s all part of his grand ‘Chinese Dream,’ set to be realised
by 2049.

This leaves us with a quarter-century to avert a catastrophic showdown
between the U.S. and China over Taiwan. I’m not blind; if China decides to
muscle in on Taiwan, then we’re talking World War III.

However, the idea of China waging war ‘over’ Taiwan doesn’t quite add up. A
WWIII over Taiwan is one thing; a WWIII with Taiwan already flying the
Chinese flag would be a whole different beast.

And China, of course, isn’t without options. Sure, an invasion’s on the menu,
but so are diplomacy, social engineering, cyber warfare, financial leverage —
each a geopolitical delicacy China is very familiar with.

The catch with invading Taiwan is crystal clear. China would need to go all-
in from the outset, launching a preemptive strike against U.S. bases along
the First Island Chain. Otherwise, the U.S. military would repeal the
invasion, decimating China’s invading navy as if shooting fish in a barrel.
Then China would be left with no options, but to escalate the situation.

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The First Island Chain, which includes Taiwan, serves the strategic purpose
of bottling up the navies of China and Russia, thereby allowing the U.S. to
project its power over Southeast Asia. China’s maritime access is restricted
by this chain, and while Russia might have an extensive coastline, it is
largely frozen.

China would likely have acted on Taiwan already if they believed the U.S.
wouldn’t or couldn’t retaliate. Taiwan, for its part, would have shown
appeasement towards China if they thought the U.S. would not come to their
defense.

The U.S. recognises that inaction in the face of a Chinese invasion would
irreparably damage its deterrence strategy, undermining its credibility with
nations in the region under threat, such as Japan, South Korea, Australia,
and the Philippines. Intervening to block a Chinese advance on Taiwan could
lead to a full-blown, and likely nuclear, war.

Thus, the drawbacks for China in invading Taiwan are evident. On top of that,
there are significant upsides to be considered in not invading.

Russia’s venture into Ukraine did little to enhance its military strength. In
contrast, China’s ‘integration’ of Taiwan would be transformative. For
starters, they would gain access to advanced semiconductor technology,
potentially upgrading their military weapons capability to rival that of the
U.S.

However, the real prize lies in effectively breaking the First Island Chain,
granting China free maritime passage and elevating its navy to a global
force, capable of throwing punches anywhere in the globe, just like the U.S.

Such an upgrade in military technology, along with a blue-water navy, would
dramatically alter China’s position in a hypothetical WWIII.

Yet, the West need not lose sleep over WWIII just yet. A better reason to
lose sleep would be the ‘new’ China, rising from such a transformation,
signalling a truly new world order. Emboldened, and possibly already the
world’s largest economy, China would be poised to overturn global
institutions and assume the role of leader of a captive world. No war
required upfront.

Even at the height of the Cold War, there was no contender with the
capability to both survive a U.S. downfall and then reign over the remnants.
The Soviet Union, limited in its ability to project power, faced a binary
fate between collapse or mutual destruction. It could never ‘win.’ China,
however, could emerge as the first nation capable of going toe to toe with
the U.S. for global influence, and beating it at its game. There was never
such a nuanced approach to the Cold War.

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age
of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief,
it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was
the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter
of despair.”
Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities

“Why now?” That’s the unanswered question connecting Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine, Iran’s orchestration of the October 7th attacks, and — if it
transpires — China’s invasion of Taiwan.

The answer, I’d wager, hinges on figuring out which relevant timeline we’re
in.

We’re unmistakably in a timeline that includes the Iranian Deal, the Obama
‘red line’, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the uncertain support for
Ukraine. Here, U.S. deterrence falters, emitting mixed signals to friends and
foes alike.

Is this the same timeline where the invasion of Ukraine leads to the October
7th attacks, and then Taiwan? This is the prevailing impression in mainstream
media: a ‘surge in authoritarianism’ ushering in WWIII, lacking clear
purpose, coordination, or a gameplan.

It’s the established narrative of globalist heroes championing democracy
against the fascists, casually referencing Trump and Orban for quick
validation. It presupposes that the entire world adheres to the mindset of
21st-century Western elites, even 19th-century men like Xi and Putin.

I’d be hard-pressed to argue that the conflicts in Ukraine, the Holy Land and
Taiwan are about democracy. The same goes for most Western elections.

Perhaps we’re in the timeline extending from the Berlin Wall to the World
Trade Center, and eventually Taiwan. It marks the end of ‘Pax Democratica,’ a
makeshift band-aid over Pax Americana, founded on half-baked principles like
Thomas Friedman’s ‘Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention.’ The old Cold
War conflict between capitalism and socialism, or today’s vogue,
individualism and collectivism.

We believed free markets could solve everything, from providing cheap labour
through immigration to democratising China and the Middle East. The notion
was, if we talk tough and carry a soft stick, no two countries where
McDonald’s has planted its flag would ever go to war against each other.

Well, that theory was dead on arrival. Soon, the revisionist idea that the
U.S. never bombed a country in Apple’s supply chain will likely be
discredited.

So, are we in a timeline from Franz Ferdinand’s assassination to Poland’s
invasion, culminating in Taiwan? I doubt it. But if we are indeed on the cusp
of WWIII, then striking China, Russia, and Iran right now might be the best
strategy, as John von Neumann would’ve suggested. Only because it won’t get
any easier. Since that doesn’t sound reasonable, we must be in a different
timeline yet.

I believe we’re in the timeline from the fall of Carthage to the fall of
Constantinople, to the fall of Taiwan. Historian Donald Kagan, in his On the
Origins of War, presents a persuasive argument for a common lineage between
the Peloponnesian War, Punic Wars, WWI, and WWII. It’s a prolonged, slow-
burning timeline. Perhaps similar to the one we are in now.

After Constantinople, the Ottoman Empire reigned, with the Barbary States
controlling the seas. The West was compelled to circumnavigate the globe,
discovering new worlds. Interestingly, the Russian Empire rose by conquering
what was once a great empire from the East.

Predicting the outcome of China’s move on Taiwan is challenging, as it
depends on intermediary events yet to happen. But any speculation is still
more rational than assuming WWIII is imminent due to the ‘delusions’ of
autocrats like Putin, Xi, or the Ayatollahs; while overlooking the delusions
of our own pseudo-democracies, embodied by the Bidens, Macrons, Scholzes, and
Sunaks. Perhaps our adversaries comprehend this better than we think.

In any event, there’s no denying something big is happening. And the trial
runs for WWIII are well underway.

“Verba movent, exempla trahunt
(Words move, examples compel)”

To suggest that your enemies are plotting is to be branded a conspiracy
theorist. The moderate position, however, seems to be blindly trusting that
our side has a plan, even in the absence of any evidence.

What is true, though, is that the world is engaged in one big war game across
three expansive fronts: the resurgence of a Eurasian empire led by Russia,
the erratic attempts to form an all-encompassing ‘Islamic State’ — with Iran,
Saudi Arabia, and Turkey as contenders —, and China’s rise to global
preeminence, using Taiwan as a stepping stone, not an objective.

They’ve been fortifying their strategic positions for a long time, mobilising
resources and bolstering their military arsenal, seemingly intent on
challenging the U.S.’s hegemonic status and shaping a multipolar world.

We believe ‘Pax Democratica’ poses a threat to them — that it will
democratise China, de-radicalise the Middle East, and even topple Putin’s
regime through sanctions. But in reality, this naïve belief is their ace in
the hole. ‘Pax Democratica’ unwittingly serves their purposes.

Just look at how interesting things are since 2022: we’ve seen Russia-
Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, with brewing tensions in Serbia-Kosovo, Venezuela-
Guyana, and possibly Iran-Pakistan. Last year, it was Armenia-Azerbaijan.

Iran’s ticking closer to a nuke by the minute. North Korea is ratcheting up
tensions with South Korea, which is simultaneously strengthening naval and
defence ties with Japan, despite their bloody historical relationship.

Global trade is in literal dire straits. Suez Canal trade volume has
plummeted by 40% due to regional conflicts. China’s shadow over Taiwan looms
large, threatening cross-strait trade. The Red Sea is choked by Iran-backed
militias, and Panama’s stability is increasingly in question.

Meanwhile, 3.2 million illegal immigrants entered the U.S. across the
southern border last year, and half of the global population are heading to
the polls this year.

And then there’s ‘Putin's Coup Belt,’ a series of real-life insurrections
that have torn through Africa since 2020:

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China’s growing role as a global creditor adds to the disorder. IMF and G20
officials whisper about China cutting deals in the shadows in the emerging
world, which might include collateral like mines, power plants, and other key
infrastructure. Defaults could spark political upheaval in countries like
Zambia, Sri Lanka, Ghana, Ethiopia, and Pakistan, all of which are heavy
borrowers from China.

China holds $867 billion of US debt. In the event of a conflict in the South
China Sea, there might be a 40% sell-off of U.S. treasury papers (by China
and other parties in the region, like Japan), significantly crippling
America's fundraising capabilities.

“From the heights of the Pyramids, forty centuries look down on us.”
Napoleon

On the map below, note the Chinese naval base in Djibouti, its first
overseas, and a ‘commercial port’ in Equatorial Guinea, both nearly flanking
Putin’s Coup Belt:

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Also, observe the proposed and operational bases dotting Southeast Asia and
the Solomon Islands, forming an almost complete envelope around the First
Island Chain.

Oceans are, of course, the bedrock of the international order. China,
confined by the First Island Chain, is establishing overseas outposts for
access, refueling, and replenishing. Hence, the trillions invested by China
in port infrastructure all over the world:

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Then there’s Panama, which some forget was invaded by the U.S. in 1989 during
Operation Just Cause. There, a Chinese consortium is building a bridge over
the Canal, one that will be exempt from the Panama Canal Neutrality Protocol.
This protocol dictates that the canal “both in times of peace and in times of
war it shall remain secure and open to peaceful transit by the vessels of all
nations.”

China’s shipbuilding capacity dwarfs that of the U.S. Its naval fleet,
already arguably the world’s largest with over 340 warships, was once
considered a green-water force, operating mostly near its shores. The speed
of its transformation into a blue-water navy, capable of global reach, is
remarkable.

Xi aims for a “world-class force” by 2035. The Fujian, China’s third aircraft
carrier due in 2024, with longer-range and heavier ordnance capabilities,
will extend China’s defensive perimeter to the Second Island Chain and
beyond.

Make no mistake, we are dealing with the same China that fought the Taiping
Rebellion, which left 30 million casualties decades before WWI, and the same
China that expropriated 700 million acres of land during Communist rule.
China is no stranger to large-scale conflicts or projects. What has changed
is the method of projecting power; it is no longer through Great Walls, but
rather through aircraft carriers.

Consider Alexander’s conquest of Tyre in 332 BC, deemed improbable, if not
impossible. He built a causeway from the continent to the island city, once
thought impregnable, which stands to this day, effectively turning Tyre into
a peninsula. Then think about how China might get creative in its approach to
Taiwan.

“You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from.”
Cormac McCarthy, No Country for Old Men

Most red-blooded Americans are sick and tired of wars fought for democracy
but paid for with dollars — and some blue-blooded ones as well. The post-9/11
era saw $8 trillion spent on foreign conflicts, not including the $105
billion earmarked for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. It highlights the
importance of recognising that the issue with Taiwan is not about the
‘banality of good’ of spreading democracy.


It’s easy to overlook how the Russia-Ukraine, Hamas-Israel, and potentially
China-Taiwan conflicts are part of a larger picture, a power struggle
involving the Russia-Iran-China axis against the U.S.-led West. And we cannot
assume they lack a plan simply because we appear to lack one.

The scandal involving Chinese surveillance balloons over U.S. airspace,
undetected by the Pentagon and only later leisurely addressed, revealed more
than Joe Biden’s weakness and unsuitability as the leader of the free world.

Air Force General Glen D. VanHerck, head of NORAD and NORTHCOM, admitted to a
“domain awareness gap,” a shortfall in the understanding or monitoring of a
specific threat, where lack of complete information hinders effective
decision-making or action.

Yet, after two decades of relative peace and economic growth; and under an
unhealthy diet of obvious lies from world leaders who claim, without shame or
self-awareness, that the real ‘existential threats’ to mankind are climate
change and the patriarchy; we might have succumbed to a ‘domain awareness
trap.’

A growing trend towards isolationism is evident, especially on the right, a
clear response to wars falsely justified as democratisation efforts and a
military focus on diversity over readiness.

Despite high defense spending, the West’s capacity to support allies like
Ukraine, Israel, or Taiwan is constrained. Shell-producing capacity has
plummeted from 867,000 shells a month in the 1990s to 28,000 today, with the
Pentagon aiming to increase it to 100,000 by 2025. The Pentagon also plans to
acquire thousands of inexpensive drones over the next 18 months, while its
main supplier produced only 38 units last year.

A time may come when we look back nostalgically at the days when
isolationists grumbled about military spending abroad, oblivious to the ease
of life when the U.S. was playing war games from the bully pulpit. With house
money.

“Universe has existed for only 20 billion years, whereas if the physical
laws as we understand them are even remotely correct, the universe will
continue to exist for as least another 100 billion years. Almost all of
space and time lies in the future. By focusing atttention only on the
past and present, science has ignored almost all of reality.”
Frank Tipler

We worry too much about the origin of the species, when the real trick lies
in the destiny of the species.

Since the Cold War days, we’ve contemplated the existence of two, and only
two, apocalyptic scenarios: a nuclear war ending the world tomorrow or a
peaceful existence lasting a billion years until the sun consumes the Earth.

Regardless of whether now or never, it was pointless to think about the end
of the world as we know it. And that belief has crept deep into our
geopolitical psyche.

However, a third scenario is now emerging from the bunkers of Moscow,
Beijing, and Tehran, suggesting the world as we know it might end in a few
generations – perhaps in 50, 100, or 200 years.

Interestingly, albeit under different pretences, this is the plot of The
Three-Body Problem by Liu Ciuxin, arguably the greatest editorial success
from China and a seminal sci-fi work of this century. The novel rips into
China’s Cultural Revolution while envisaging an outsized leadership role for
the country amid global turmoil. All with the presumed blessing of the
Chinese Communist Party.

Drawing its title from the three-body problem in classical mechanics, the
novel imagines an advanced alien civilisation, the Trisolarians, in a galaxy
where their planet endures the chaotic influence of three suns, contrasting
with Earth’s stable single-sun system. A not-so-subtle reference to our
geopolitical solar system, with a sovereign sun (the U.S.) as an overwhelming
source of gravity, keeping the system stable.

Upon discovering our solar system, the Trisolarians embark on a 400-year
journey to colonise Earth. Warned about their intentions, Earth is left to
contemplate life under the threat of certain civilisational collapse. Not
today, not in a billion years, but in the excrutiating length of only a few
generations’ time.

The novel flashes back to the fall of Constantinople in 1453 as a symbol of
the impending civilisational upheaval. Another interesting allegory is the
space elevator, a futuristic structure extending from Earth into space, a
strategic gateway for transporting materials, people, and weapons into the
vast battleground. Perhaps an allusion to the strategic importance of
conquering Taiwan.

Almost like in real life, China in The Three-Body Problem is a perfect
prediction of Marxism. Building the space elevator, akin to ‘reuniting’ with
Taiwan, becomes an inevitable historical step.

The ‘rules-based’ international liberal order has lost the bet on China, the
plot on Russia, and the bluff in the Middle East. Liberalism, lacking
solutions, has seen its strategies unravel. The One China Policy, the Two-
State Solution, and NATO expansion are failed answers to the core issues in
Taiwan, the Middle East, and Ukraine, respectively.

More importantly, while indulging in the low-hanging fruits of the tree of
knowledge, we forgot how to build cathedrals, and ask little questions even
as they burn before our eyes. China, one of the longest continuous
civilisations, understands this. Like the terracotta warriors, they aim not
just for omnipotence but for immortality.

Demographic and economic challenges might derail their plans, but it is clear
the Liberal order is doing nothing to help. It’s time for Liberalism to
yield. Hopefully not to the machinations of China, Russia, or Iran.

Populism, beginning with the migration of the traditional middle class and
blue-collar workers away from leftist social engineering towards common-sense
policies on the right, may be our most promising bet to break the West’s
death spiral. However, there are other post-Liberal theories worth exploring.

Einstein’s grim prediction of a nuclear WWIII followed by a “sticks and
stones” WWIV is no longer the most daunting prospect. The realisation that
the West, for the first time, might lack the means or the will to engage in
an existential war, is even more frightening.

By the way, what happened to the ‘experts’ who advanced the ‘Doomsday Clock’
every day under Trump? They’ve been notably silent lately.

Some of us may face the twilight blissfully absorbed in our iPhones, while
others will not. Luckily, future archaeologists — unlike with gender — won’t
be able to tell who’s who just by examining our charred bones. Says study.