housingpanic.com was right all along
OJ Simpson
HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble and Stock Market Crash Blog with an
Attitude Problem
Welcome to the Panic of 2008
October 13, 2008
Well, I'd say Dow 30,000 by the end of the year is looking kinda like
a longshot at this point, wouldn't you? But hey, snake oil sold great
back then
Maybe he and Lereah hang out? Or maybe he was pricing in a massive US
dollar devaluation?
And anytime you hear someone say "it's different this time" - just
slap 'em. It's NEVER different this time. Silly humans.
But for fun, get your predictions in for the Dow's Friday close.
I'll jump in with both feet and say 10,000. I was gonna say 30,000,
but thought that was a bit too optimistic.
Posted by keith at 10/13/2008 0 comments Links to this post
October 12, 2008
Here we are, October 12, 2008, the day the world went to the brink.
So, what does a complete collapse of the worldwide financial system
look like?
We're at the brink HP'ers. Right now. Today.
There is now a chance, and a real possibility, that the entire
worldwide financial system could implode, as early as tomorrow.
Let that sink in.
OK?
So, what does that look like? Riots in the streets? Fuel deliveries
halted? No food on the shelves? Banks and markets are closed and no
access to cash at the ATMs? Dow 1,000? Companies disappearing in the
night? Mass disorder and confusion? People selling everything for
anything they can get? Paper currencies go worthless? World Series
canceled? Flights grounded?
I have no idea what it looks like. I'm not sure if anyone truly does.
But we're here. The brink. If it doesn't get better this week,
starting Monday, we might fall off the cliff. The whole world. There
will be no safe haven.
The only immediate solution? The nations of the world nationalize (or
guarantee) their banks, or in cases like the UK and US, they pick the
superbanks that get to go forward with government guarantees and
equity stakes, and then let the others try to make it on their own. Or
more likely, simply fail.
And this must be done today. And I think it will be.
May you live in interesting times.
From FT:
No G7 official was sure the plan would work, so deep is the financial
crisis. If it does not, the next steps would be one of two nuclear
options: to guarantee all liabilities of banks, in effect
nationalising the financial system, or for governments to seek to
bypass financial institutions by lending directly to companies and
households.
From the New Statesman:
We are witnessing the collapse of the world financial system. To have
said that even a month ago would have been to invite ridicule, but now
it seems only a statement of the obvious as banks implode, governments
panic and investors run. The initial liquidity crisis that broke in
August 2007 and drove Northern Rock to the wall has evolved into a
crisis of insolvency and finally into a crisis of confidence in the
entire financial system.
From the IMF:
The global financial system is on the brink of a meltdown and
additional steps must be taken immediately by the richest nations to
calm jittery bankers and investors, the International Monetary Fund
warned Saturday.
"Intensifying solvency concerns about a number of the largest U.S.-
based and European financial institutions have pushed the global
financial system to the brink of systemic meltdown," said Dominique
Strauss-Kahn, IMF managing director.
Posted by keith at 10/12/2008 96 comments Links to this post
FLASH: Here's a report on the UK part-nationalizing Halifax HBOS,
Lloyds TSB, Royal Bank of Scotland and Barclays banks tonight
Rumors that the market over here might not open on Monday...
Stay tuned. The bank nationalizations are here.
And they said it could never happen.
Never say never.
Any guesses on who the nationalized US superbank survivors will be?
Posted by keith at 10/12/2008 9 comments Links to this post
FROM AMERICAPANIC: Here's John McCain, running as a Communist now, and
his great idea to use your money to discount the mortgages of
gamblers
Call it what it is.
Communism.
McCain wants to use $300 billion to "put a floor under home prices",
buying mortgages at the face value and letting gamblers (and their
lender) enjoy the new lower market price. Obviously not understanding
what contracts are, what the free market is, or that high home prices
were and are the problem, not the solution.
What an idiot, my friends. What an idiot.
And I have no idea what's happened to John McCain. I think he's truly
lost his mind. Because he sure has lost his way. How anyone even in
the GOP can support this guy any longer shows you how clueless that
crowd must be.
I've never seen a more desperate candidate for president in my life.
It's amazing what desperation does to a man. He'll sell the last thing
he has left. His soul.
Posted by keith at 10/12/2008 27 comments Links to this post
Did Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke, George Bush and the monkeys in
Congress crash the stock market and just make matters worse?
If they had just let the market cleanse itself, and let the bad
companies go bankrupt, instead of running around like lunatics with a
different plan every day, would we be better off right now?
Methinks 'twas so.
Capitalism is messy, free markets are messy, but you need to trust
them. Once you're banning short sales, closing down trading, propping
up some companies while not propping up others, and rushing around
trying to stop asset prices from falling, well, then this is what you
get.
A disaster.
But now, here we are. Now we have a disaster. Because of a total and
complete loss of confidence and trust.
Having Paulson, Bernanke and Bush running around for a year saying
"subprime is contained", "the fundamentals are strong" and then a few
days ago do a 180 and tell us the world is ending unless we cough up
$700 billion within hours, well, that didn't do much for trust or
confidence folks. At that point, they were exposed as liars at best or
incompetent and clueless at worst.
When history writes the book, they'll find that our government got us
into this problem by not properly regulating the financial affairs of
the land, because they were corrupted by the REIC. And then our
government accentuated this problem with its haphazard, scatter-shot,
unpredictable, dishonest and panicked response.
Monkeys.
And people obviously don't trust monkeys.
The Government Is Contributing to the Panic - It's time to let markets
do their messy work.
Despite all the hard work and good intentions on the part of our
public officials, when economists and historians look back on the
current financial crisis they are likely to conclude that government
intervention prolonged and deepened it. In particular, officials at
the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the
Treasury Department are to blame for publicly losing confidence in the
very economic system they are supposed to protect.
The Fed, the Treasury and the SEC appear to be in a state of panic. A
crisis mentality led the custodians of the U.S. capital markets
publicly to jettison their lifelong commitments to the capital markets
in favor of a series of short-term regulatory quick fixes. Even more
troubling, for the past several months the doyens of U.S. fiscal and
monetary policy have ignored the most fundamental principle of central
banking, which is that the primary responsibility of central bankers
is to promote stability and to maintain confidence in the capital
markets. Our central bankers appear to have suddenly lost confidence
both in their own abilities and in the standard tools of fiscal and
monetary policy.
Posted by keith at 10/12/2008 24 comments Links to this post
October 11, 2008
Jim Cramer, going off on the destruction of trust and the market being
rigged back when the Dow was still at 11,500
Sorry Cramer haters. Dude was right.
Posted by keith at 10/11/2008 31 comments Links to this post
OK, PRETEND YOU'RE DOPES. THE FOOL WHO USED TO POST HERE ABOUT 'SOME
CRASH' BECAUSE IPODS WERE SELLING OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT
POOR DOPES. AND I NEVER UNDERSTOOD WHY HE/SHE ALWAYS SHOUTED. BUT I
GUESS IT'S ALWAYS THE IGNORANT FOOLS WHO SPEAK THE LOUDEST.
BUT SERIOUSLY, POOR DOPES. HE/SHE MUST BE DESTROYED BY NOW. DESTITUTE,
ON A STREET CORNER, MUMBLING SOMETHING ABOUT THOSE DAMN HP'ERS
SO, OPEN THREAD, PRETEND YOU'RE DOPES. TELL US THAT THERE WAS NO
HOUSING BUBBLE. AND THAT THE DOW NEVER EVER COULD SEE 8,000, BECAUSE
IPODS WERE SELLING, AND RESTAURANTS WERE FULL.
POOR DOPES.
AND YOU KNOW, I ALWAYS THOUGHT DOPES MIGHT BE GREG SWANN. OR LAWRENCE
YUN.
Posted by keith at 10/11/2008 47 comments Links to this post
Black Monday?
Or bounceback Monday?
Or crazy up and down and all around but break even Monday?
[update - yes, we're supposed to be open on Monday for trading. Let's
see if we are]
Posted by keith at 10/11/2008 73 comments Links to this post
Ron Paul again nails it. "They're doing exactly what we did in the
Depression. The prices of houses have to come down."
When it comes to housing and the dollar, Ron Paul gets it.
Posted by keith at 10/11/2008 8 comments Links to this post
The world just witnessed the worst week ever in the stock markets. The
worst week ever. Any questions?
Did you all survive, while others were in total and complete panic?
Were you all ready, while others were totally unprepared and over-
leveraged?
Were you sitting on cash, while others went on a desperate orgy of
cash-raising liquidation?
And now that we've seen the worst week in history, what do you think
next week, and the rest of 2008 has in store?
And oh, thank you realtors. Thank you mortgage brokers. Thank you
Congress. Thank you bankers. Thank you housing gamblers and mortgage
fraudsters.
You f*cked America. You f*cked the world. And you f*cked yourselves.
The Dow lost 128 points, giving the blue chips an eight-day loss of
just under 2,400, or 22.1 percent. The average had its worst week on
record in both point and percentage terms.
"Fear has been running rampant all over the Street. Fear and greed,
that's what rules the Street. I think the carcass has been stripped to
the bone," said Dave Henderson, a floor trader on the New York Stock
Exchange for Raven Securities Corp.
Posted by keith at 10/11/2008 69 comments Links to this post
HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day
Again, where were (and where are) the auditors?
Bonus: And isn't violating Sarbanes-Oxley supposed to be a crime?
PricewaterhouseCoopers, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, Ernst & Young and
KPMG - your day is coming soon. Trillions were lost because of you,
and you failed America (again). Your corrupted and incompetent
profession needs an enema.
Posted by keith at 10/11/2008 17 comments Links to this post
We love our bubbles.
Future generations will laugh at us.
What were they thinking, those idiots!
As they get ready for their next fraud-and-speculation-fueled bubble
and get rich scheme.
Silly humans. We love our bubbles. And we hate our crashes.
Posted by keith at 10/11/2008 9 comments Links to this post
We said trillions would be lost. Trillions and trillions and
trillions. Investors in American stocks have lost $8.4 trillion in the
past 12 months.
All because of houses.
Let that sink in.
Houses.
F*cking houses.
Come on. How stupid was that?
Investors suffered a paper loss of $2.4 trillion for the week, as
measured by the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, and for the past year
the losses have totaled $8.4 trillion.
It was even worse overseas on Friday. Britain's FTSE index ended below
the 4,000 level for the first time in five years; Germany's DAX fell 7
percent and France's CAC-40 finished down 7.7 percent. Japan's
benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell 9.6 percent, also hitting a five-year
low. For the week, the Nikkei lost nearly a quarter of its value.
Russia's market never even opened.
Posted by keith at 10/11/2008 6 comments Links to this post
October 10, 2008
If you want perma-doom and gloom, go find another blog. We're in the
PANIC stage now HP'ers. And as all of you should know, eventually
comes hope.
PANIC.
We're there.
Capitulation.
We're there.
Despondency and depression.
They're coming.
Then, oh, yes, then...
HOPE.
Sweet, sweet hope.
Hope that we can right the wrongs.
Hope that we get rid of the incompetent leaders, and replace them with
the competent.
Hope that America and the world can rise from the ashes.
Hope that we learn from this debacle and these awful eight years.
Hope that we will tackle our financial issues head on.
Hope that the NAR can be destroyed.
Hope that America can re-invent herself.
Hope that our REIC-corrupted system can be cleansed.
Hope that we will again become a nation of laws.
Hope that Dick Cheney and George Bush and Alberto Gonzales and Chris
Dodd and Angelo Mozilo and Michael Perry experience the cold hard
reality of jail.
Hope that capitalism and democracy and free markets can and will
triumph.
Hope.
The first inkling of hope starts November 5, 2008. And it really
begins January 20, 2009. After that, day by day, it'll grow brighter.
And we'll start again.
I've told you about it for three years, and you rejected it. Go read
the archives. But now that day shall come.
Soon the PANIC will end, while the nasty cleansing continues, and then
hope begins. Just look at the chart. It will happen. It's just a
question of when.
We are America. We continually reinvent ourselves and move on. We go
to the abyss, but we don't fall in. We sometimes elect terribly
corrupt and despicable leaders, and then we get rid of them.
We truly are that shining city on a hill. Even when we sometimes suck.
And it hath been foretold.
Posted by keith at 10/10/2008 69 comments Links to this post
You knew this day would come. HousingPANIC calls on the Bush
Administration to nationalize and recapitalize the banks
It's time.
It's time for the US taxpayer to take on the banks, fire and prosecute
their executives, recapitalize them, and move on. And maybe one day
sell them off at a profit.
It's time for us to arrest the guilty (hello Angelo Mozilo), seize
their ill-gotten gains, and move on.
It's time for us to admit what we all know is true. The banks in the
United States are insolvent. They got that way because of lack of
regulation, a bastardization of the tax code that over-encouraged home
purchases, the incompetence and corruption of the auditors and ratings
agencies and FDIC, a gaming of the system by the investment banks,
appraisers, realtors and mortgage brokers, and outright bribery of the
US Congress.
So let's admit what happened, take over the banks, fire and arrest the
executives and associated guilty parties, and move on. Exchange
capital for equity, wipe out the shareholders, replace the leadership,
and move on.
Now.
And yes, this will happen. Whether you want it or not. We either
recapitalize them, or they fail. It's only a question of when.
It hath been foretold.
Posted by keith at 10/10/2008 40 comments Links to this post
We are in panic. The only questions are: 1) How long will it last, and
2) What does the world look like after the panic is over?
If you're keeping score at home, we've now seen the entire Manias,
Panics and Crashes book played out, over the three years of
HousingPANIC.
It's truly stunning. We had the book that told us exactly what was
going to happen.
Now I just want to see how this ends.
"The final phase is a self-feeding panic, where the bubble bursts.
People of wealth and credit scramble to unload whatever they have
bought at greater and greater losses, and cash becomes king"
-Manias, Panics and Crashes, the HousingPANIC bible
Posted by keith at 10/10/2008 82 comments Links to this post
MARKET MELTDOWN SPECIAL OPEN THREAD - What, if anything, can stop the
stock markets from crashing further?
[UPDATE - DOW CRASHES THROUGH 8,000 - THEN JUMPS. DID WE JUST SEE
BOTTOM? OR DO WE HAVE FURTHER TO GO?]
If this isn't panic then I don't know what is.
You'll tell stories about these days for the rest of your life.
But how does the story end?
Posted by keith at 10/10/2008 136 comments Links to this post
A SPECIAL HOUSINGPANIC MESSAGE TO THE MONKEYS IN DC: ARREST ANGELO
MOZILO. ARREST MICHAEL PERRY. START THE PERP-WALKS. THE MARKET DEMANDS
IT.
Confidence will not be restored until the US again shows the world
that they're ready to enforce the basic laws of the land.
Mortgage fraud used to be a crime.
Insider stock trading used to be a crime.
Falsifying financial documents used to be a crime.
But not under Alberto Gonzalez, Michael Mukasey, Chris Cox, Robert
Mueller and George Bush. No, those silly laws just got in the way of
doing good business. Or launching stupid wars.
The first step toward calming these markets is to arrest the two most
guilty parties in this whole mess - Angelo Mozilo from Countrywide and
Michael Perry at Indymac. They called them liar's loans, they knew
they were enabling mortgage fraud in order to enrich themselves, and
they should be in jail. Period. Frog march them for a mile live on
every TV in America.
Get them into custody, seize their assets, and make them squeal.
And those two are just the start. Thousands and thousands were
involved at high levels and need to go to jail, including some of your
Senators and Representatives. And then millions were involved at the
lower levels and at a minimum need to be noted and fined.
The people and the markets demand perp-walks. We demand frog-marches.
We demand that America becomes a nation of laws, ENFORCED LAWS, once
again.
Today. Right now. This day. No more waiting. The markets DEMAND that
the laws of the land be enforced. Finally.
Or we simply fall into the abyss.
Posted by keith at 10/10/2008 10 comments Links to this post
With credit frozen up, the stock market crashing, jobs in jeopardy,
and home prices still in freefall, where are the buyers?
Illiquid.
Anyone trying to or needing to sell a home in the next few months will
find out what "illiquid" means.
There will be no buyers, but there will be a record number of
sellers.
Trust is gone. People can't get financing. The banks want downpayments
that people don't have. Jobs are on the line. Even cash buyers will
now wait for even lower prices.
For housing prices, get ready for the next leg down. On-the-brink
'homeowners' will simply walk away, while the banks continue to fail,
and the REOs and foreclosures hit the market at shocking prices.
Now, it gets desperate. All sellers, no buyers.
You ain't seen nothin' yet.
Posted by keith at 10/10/2008 31 comments Links to this post
And then someone on Barack Obama's staff found HousingPANIC
"It means doing what I proposed more than two years ago and cracking
down on predatory lenders by treating mortgage fraud like the crime
that it is."
- Barack Obama, October 9, 2008
Posted by keith at 10/10/2008 16 comments Links to this post
October 09, 2008
NBC SPECIAL REPORT ON THE ONGOING MARKET CRASH - 5000 POINT DOW DROP
IN 12 MONTHS AS THE WORLD SPINS OUT OF CONTROL
It's all going away HP'ers. All those profits. All that wealth. All
that credit. It's all going away. If it's not gone already. In one big
whoosh of panic.
The world is in serious trouble. And you are too, whether you realize
it yet or not.
Panic is now here. And it's not going away anytime soon.
Thank you realtors. Thank you bankers. Thank you mortgage brokers.
Thank you appraisers. Thank you flippers. Thank you Bush. Thank you
Congress.
You f*cked the world.
Posted by keith at 10/09/2008 59 comments Links to this post
The Great Panic of 2008 is here. And people will read, learn and
analyze this one for the rest of time.
This is a pure and total loss of confidence folks. A loss of
confidence in our markets. A loss of confidence in our leaders. A loss
of confidence in our Justice Department, our media and our laws. And a
loss of confidence in capitalism itself.
The actions of our incompetent, clueless and corrupt leaders these
past few weeks have made this crisis and crash worse than even I
expected. Now the whole world is New Orleans. Now the world sees the
incompetence, cronyism and corruption that came to infect Washington
D.C., and the greed that infected the world
Get popcorn. But get real. The events of the past few days will change
your life direction. The world will never be the same.
From Websters:
Main Entry: panic
Function: noun
Date: 1708
1 a: a sudden overpowering fright ; also : acute extreme anxiety
b: a sudden unreasoning terror often accompanied by mass flight panic
in the streets>
c: a sudden widespread fright concerning financial affairs that
results in a depression of values caused by extreme measures for
protection of property (as securities)
From Brett Steenbarger, Author of The Psychology of Trading, on
TraderFeed:
It looks like the chart of a fallen bank, but it's actually the daily
price chart of the S&P 500 Index futures as of this morning's pre-
opening trade. Market history is replete with instances of stock
market panics. Since the Great Depression era, we've had panicky
periods of selling, but no labeled "Financial Panics".
Panic, psychologically, connotes a loss of orientation and an
overwhelming sense of anxiety, just as Depression connotes
hopelessness and an overwhelming sense of loss.
It is interesting that we use these psychological terms to label
periods in financial history, but it is fitting.
When institutional investors lose confidence in the financial system,
what else can they do but hit the panic button, sell their assets, and
do their best to preserve capital?
When individual investors see their retirement assets--from their
homes to their bonds to their stocks--down more than 20% and in
seeming free-fall, it's understandable that psychological depressions
become financial ones.
Posted by keith at 10/09/2008 42 comments Links to this post
So, with stocks, are you buying, selling or holding during this crash?
Or are you just on the beach, eating popcorn?
UPDATE - DOW CLOSES AT SHOCKING 8,579, CRASHES 5,585 POINS IN 12
MONTHS. LIVES ARE RUINED. SAVINGS ARE GONE. JOBS ARE NEXT. PANIC IS
HERE.
(photos at huffingtonpost)
Posted by keith at 10/09/2008 121 comments Links to this post
And then even "it can't happen here" London crashed, with properties
down 10% to 25% already and in freefall
Gee, what a shock.
When you could rent for a fraction of the cost of 'owning', and then
your city gets hit by mass financial sector layoffs, you're looking at
something dreadful. And come on, should 1-bedroom flats ever have sold
for $2 million plus? London has a long, long, long, long, long way to
fall folks. This will be one for the history books.
Thanks for playing London. And please take all those damn estate
agents with you.
Here's the latest from my old 'hood. Sure glad I rented.
Posted by keith at 10/09/2008 13 comments Links to this post
Here's the latest on IcelandPANIC
Poor folks. They thought they were doing so well, lots of luxury
shops, euro-lounges, high-living, and then BOOM, their currency
craters, they lose their life's savings, their banks fail, their
companies and jobs go away.
Iceland. Not some banana republic. Iceland.
Amazing. And now it feels like it can happen anywhere. To anyone. At
anytime. When you least expect it.
Be prepared.
I might have to pop on up there to see it for myself. Anyone ever
been?
Posted by keith at 10/09/2008 26 comments Links to this post
Housing has crashed. 401k's are wiped out. People are losing their
jobs. Everything is more expensive. Trust is gone. So how is it out
there?
SPECIAL 2-DAY HOUSINGPANIC OPEN THREAD
How has the collapse that we all anticipated affected you?
How about your friends, family and co-workers?
Are you fearful? Are you prepared? Are you furious? Are you stressed?
We all saw this coming, nobody can deny that now. But does that really
matter when it all falls apart?
Posted by keith at 10/09/2008 140 comments Links to this post
Connect these dots. Illegals, housing, liar's loans, Arizona, McCain,
Countrywide, FBI, Alberto Gonzales, Bush, worldwide economic meltdown,
weeds
(phoenix suburban hell photos courtesy of housingdoom)
HUD: Five Million Fraudulent Mortgages Held by Illegals
Some five million fraudulent home mortgages are in the hands of
illegal aliens, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban
Development.
It's not known how many of those have contributed to the subprime
housing mortgage meltdown, but it has affected every state, including
Arizona.
FBI Will Not Go After Borrowers Who Lied on Mortgage Applications
Borrowers who defrauded lenders by lying on their mortgage application
could be thrown in prison for up to 30 years and forced to pay a $1
million fine under the current federal law. But the FBI says there is
no intention to pursue borrowers at this time.
Almost 60 percent of stated-loan applicants inflated their incomes by
at least 50 percent, according to the Mortgage Asset Research
Institute. The worst part is that everyone knew the income was being
inflated. The industry even had a name for these kinds of
loans--'liar's loans.'
Letter to the Editor - Arizona Republic
No housing 'bubble' bursting in the Valley
May. 27, 2006 12:00 AM
I see an awful lot written about the real estate "bubble" bursting,
but I've yet to see evidence of this happening in Phoenix.I'm buying a
home in Buckeye, a town that has seen a 4 percent increase in sales
this quarter compared with the same time last year and where price
appreciation has increased every month during the past three months.
In the overall Phoenix market, inventory is up more than 10 times year-
ago levels; prices are up 70 percent over 2004 levels; yet sales
dipped only 7 percent in the first quarter of 2006. Is this evidence
of a bubble bursting? I think not.
- Sonny Shrivastava, Tolleson
The new homeowners
By Nicholas P. Retsinas (idiot at the Harvard Joint Center for Housing
Studies) July 8, 2007
CONGRESS, presidential candidates, and lots of Americans may be giving
a tepid welcome to the immigrants settling into America's
neighborhoods -- some illegally, most legally. But the housing
industry should be sending a welcome wagon. And every baby boomer
hoping to sell his home in the next decade should be embracing these
newcomers, for they will constitute an increasing segment of the home-
buying, apartment-renting market. According to University of Southern
California demographer Dowell Myers, immigrants and baby boomers must
"forge a new social contract." The Garcias and Nguyens are buoying the
housing industry.
Posted by keith at 10/09/2008 26 comments Links to this post
I wrote this post in April 2006. And remember, according to Fannie
Mae's CEO, nobody saw this coming.
From the HousingPanic archives, April 12, 2006:
I'm starting to think this is going to end badly. No, really, really
badly
For the original HP'ers, Fall 2005 was kinda fun - as we were dealing
with a theory of an economic bubble, many of us had figured it out,
and against the advice of our friends, families and realtors, sold our
houses (at the peak).
We were debating if we were in an economic bubble, what were its
proofs, its causes, and what would lead to its collapse.
Now that we're here, without a doubt post-peak, post-bubble-pop, well,
its time we really think hard about what the world will look like in 3
months, 6 months, 12 months, 24 months, 48 months.
For your personal situation, for your neighbor, for Bob Toll, for
realtors, for mortgage brokers, for illegal immigrants, for married
couples, for families, for the kids of investors, for Ben Bernanke,
for the poor, for the rich, for retailers, for Lexus salesmen, for
George Bush, for returning soldiers, for Greenspan, for Trump, for job
seekers, for condo flippers, for developers, for Fannie Mae, for
China, for stock investors, for renters, for new homebuyers, for
America and for the world.
Really. Stop and think about it. Now. Think hard. Visualize it. The
bursting of the largest financial bubble in human history.
Because it's all going to end badly. For almost everyone. Really,
really, really, really badly.
Really, really, really, really, really, really, really, REALLY badly.
Really badly. And that's not good.
Posted by keith at 10/09/2008 12 comments Links to this post
HousingPANIC Quote of the Day
"Spending more money than you have -- consumerism beyond capability to
buy -- it seems to me that's a moral vice. There are reasonable uses
of debt, but lifestyle debt is not one of them.
"Who ends up paying the bills? Either you pay the bills down the road,
or if you seriously mismanage, someone ends up paying the bills for
you -- you need someone to bail you out. I'm hard pressed to think
that's a virtuous way to live life."
- Ron Wilcox, professor at the Darden School of Business at the
University of Virginia, October 2008
Posted by keith at 10/09/2008 4 comments Links to this post
And then, finally, the US realized it would need to nationalize the
failed banks.
No, this headline is not from 1929.
It's from October 9, 2008. Today. Real time. This is really happening.
And if they DON'T do it? Armageddon. So they will.
And that $700 billion? That was just the start-up money. They'll need
trillions to recapitalize and save the banks, companies 'too big to
fail', and the shadow financial system. Trillions. Trillions.
Did you ever thing you'd see it in your lifetime?
White House considers taking ownership stakes in private banks to deal
with credit crisis
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Bush administration is considering taking
ownership stakes in a number of U.S. banks as one option it might use
to deal with a serious credit crisis, an administration official said
Wednesday.
Posted by keith at 10/09/2008 8 comments Links to this post
October 08, 2008
John McCain now wants to spend $300 billion of taxpayer money to buy
up mortgages from failed housing gamblers at their fraudulently
inflated prices.
And then the Republicans became Democrats and the Democrats became
Republicans.
And if EITHER candidate or party calls for the taxpayer to pick up the
tab for failed housing gamblers' and fraudsters' mistakes and
behavior, then a rebellion unlike anything we've seen since the 1960's
should commence.
If one penny of your money - people who made rational financial
decisions and didn't gamble on obviously overpriced houses, people who
didn't commit mortgage fraud, people who lived within their means - IF
ONE PENNY OF TAXPAYER MONEY IS GIVEN TO FRAUDSTERS, GAMBLERS AND
FAILED FLIPPERS, THEN REVOLUTION THEY WILL HAVE.
If they did anything like this, what would be next? Cover your stock
losses? Cover that bad bet you made on the Cubs? Cover your bar tab?
I can't believe this would even be considered, let alone proposed by a
major party candidate. A nation of laws and contracts and free
markets, which just changes the rules in the night, voids the
contracts, doesn't prosecute the fraudsters, and rewards gamblers and
failed flippers while penalizing responsible citizens. That's not
America folks. Not the America I remember.
But here they are, led by the desperate and soul-less McCain, who you
remember said in March:
* "It is not the duty of government to bail out and reward those who
act irresponsibly, whether they are big banks or small borrowers."
But now the monkeys are getting dangerously close to direct election-
year housing gambler payoffs. The NAR, NAHB and NAMB are powerful. So
are China, Saudi Arabia, Toll Brothers, KB Home, Wells Fargo, Bank of
America, JP Morgan and Citigroup. They all want a floor under housing
prices. Even if that means having the government overpay for the
houses to bail out the gamblers.
This will not stand. Period. And in this case you shouldn't care about
Obama or McCain or Democrats or Republicans. This goes well beyond
politics. This will not stand.
McCain Homeownership Resurgence Plan - "The direct cost of this plan
would be roughly $300 billion because the purchase of mortgages would
relieve homeowners of “negative equity” in some homes"
Obama rejects McCain's mortgage buyup plan - Democrat Barack Obama's
campaign criticized John McCain's mortgage bailout plan Wednesday,
saying it would cause the government to lose money by paying too much
for bad loans.
McCain mortgage plan shifts costs to taxpayers - Under McCain's newly
announced plan, the government would take the hit for writing down
mortgage balances for at-risk borrowers.
McCain Adviser Offers Details on Mortgage Plan
Posted by keith at 10/08/2008 31 comments Links to this post
Take 10 minutes and listen to Schiff. You'll be glad you did.
Posted by keith at 10/08/2008 16 comments Links to this post
OK, I'm back. I miss anything the past 48 hours?
You know, like a global economic meltdown, bank failures, country
failures, and I hear there was a really boring debate too.
Posted by keith at 10/08/2008 16 comments Links to this post
October 07, 2008
More of Jim Cramer's "cash is king, sell now" call
Posted by keith at 10/07/2008 49 comments Links to this post
HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day
Is the credit-addicted overspent American consumer dead?
Bonus: Does he know it yet?
Posted by keith at 10/07/2008 101 comments Links to this post
And now?
(side note - gonna be traveling today and Wednesday... you know what
that means)
Posted by keith at 10/07/2008 59 comments Links to this post
When history is written on the Great Housing Mania and Crash, one man
will take the vast, vast majority of the blame. And his name was Alan
Greenspan
Posted by keith at 10/07/2008 28 comments Links to this post
The Euro, along with the European banks and the European economy, is
collapsing in front of our eyes. And they blame it on the US.
They still blame the European collapse on the "US Subprime Meltdown".
Oh, how little they know.
Yes, that started the ball rolling. But one day the Europeans will
look around at their own Housing Ponzi Scheme, which was much, much,
much, much, much bigger than the US bubble, and realize that people in
overpriced glass flats that rent for a fraction of the cost of
'owning' shouldn't throw stones. Capiche?
The entire WORLD went crazy with debt and greed. The WORLD's
governments fell in love with home price appreciation that fed
consumption and tax receipts.
And now the WORLD pays the price.
It hath been foretold.
Posted by keith at 10/07/2008 29 comments Links to this post
Toxic loan king Herb Sandler, who brought down Wachovia bank with his
Golden West Toxic Loan Stew, has SNL's bailout skit pulled
Remember the video we posted yesterday of the hilarous SNL bailout
skit lampooning Pelosi, Bush, Frank and Soros? Well, it looks like
toxic loan guru Herb Sandler, who was also made fun of in the skit, is
putting NBC under the screws and had the video pulled.
(A little background. Sandler controlled Golden West, a S&L that had
$122 in toxic ARMs on the books when he hilariously sold it to
Wachovia (who failed last week most likely because of this deal in my
personal first amendment protected opinion). He's also buddies with
George Soros, and a left wing activist)
Well, that kinda sucks. Because that video was pretty much HP in a
nutshell, and spot-on.
So, two things:
1) email and call NBC and tell them to man up and put the damn video
back up. Here's KNBC - figured it's best to hit one station than the
NBC switchboard.
2) Send this story to DrudgeReport - use the 'send news tips' box on
the lower right. He'll eventually post it because Soros and Sandler
are left wing activists he hates
3) Please contribute to my legal defense fund when Herb Sandler tries
to get HP pulled from the internets too
Posted by keith at 10/07/2008 20 comments Links to this post
Looks like I'll have to start "IcelandPANIC" soon. Folks, you can't
make this stuff up.
Iceland.
How the hell did Iceland get so tied up in this mess
Iceland.
Unreal.
REYKJAVIK, Iceland (AP) -- Iceland halted trading in the shares of six
of its major banks and put 100 percent guarantees on savers' deposits
Monday as the world financial crisis engulfed the tiny island nation.
Iceland is under severe pressure to draw up a plan to cope with
economic turmoil.
Iceland is particularly exposed to the global credit squeeze because
of the massive size of its banking sector, which has benefited from an
economic boom in recent years, growing to dwarf the rest of the
economy with assets at nine times the annual gross domestic product of
€14 billion ($19 billion).
Posted by keith at 10/07/2008 11 comments Links to this post
Older Posts Subscribe to: Posts (Atom) Stock Market HousingPANIC - The
Book. Call for Author.
If you are (or know) an author interested in turning the three-year
real-time HousingPANIC archives and comments into a book please
contact (see profile).
Serious enquiries only. Advance will be paid.
(Sorry folks, I'm too damn lazy to write it myself, but the story
needs to be told. Future generations need to know how it went down.
And this whole debacle does make a good story. I can't wait to see how
it ends.)
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I hope I was able to help.
I hope you learned a thing or two,
and had a few laughs along the way.
(thanks to tim, clay, chris, jc, neil, george & danis)
Are you scared? Final HP Presidential Poll Are we heading into a New
Great Depression Angelo Mozilo Arrest WatchANGELO MOZILO
ARREST WATCH
109 DAYS OF SHAME
It's time for the laws in the nation to be enforced.
Arrest this man. NOW!
Michael Perry Arrest WatchMICHAEL PERRY
ARREST WATCH
DAY 86 OF
PRISON AVOIDANCE
They called them liar's loans, and Indymac was the liar's loan king.
I call it mortgage fraud. And Michael Perry was the mortgage fraud
king.
Will this panic end in violence? Are you cutting back your spending?
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HP Newsreelhousing bubble housing crash mortgage meltdown
How World Leaders Can Reverse the Economic MeltdownAlterNet, USA
- Oct 12, 2008
- 1 hour ago
... over inflation at this economic junction is almost as foolish and
potentially more harmful than the decision to ignore the growth of the
housing bubble. ...
clipped from Google - 10/2008
What Do Terms 'Bubble,' 'Crash' Really Mean?Washington Post
- Oct 10, 2008
- Oct 10, 2008
Here's how we knew we were in a housing bubble: Historically, houses
sell for about four times a person's disposable income. But in 2006,
just before the ...
clipped from Google - 10/2008
Still Holding BackBarron's
- Oct 13, 2008
- 22 minutes ago
Therefore, you could let the tech bubble run amok and wait for it to
burst and step in. And you could let the housing bubble run amok and
step in. ...
clipped from Google - 10/2008
5 Steps To A Housing, Credit And Financial CrisisistockAnalyst.com
(press release), USA
- Oct 12, 2008
- 12 hours ago
Increased homeownerhip creates a speculative housing bubble. The
increase in home ownership increased the price of housing, helping to
create a housing ...
clipped from Google - 10/2008
powered by
Election 2008Obama McCain Palin Biden
Barack Obama's lead over John McCain is down to 7 points, 50 ...Kansas
City Star, USA
- Oct 12, 2008
- 56 minutes ago
Last week, Obama had been leading McCain by double digits in the race.
So, does the smaller lead mean anything? And is it significant? ...
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clipped from Google - 10/2008
Ohio Crowd Helps With Obama's Debate PrepCBS News, USA
- Oct 12, 2008
- 2 hours ago
(TOLEDO, OHIO) - Barack Obama went canvassing today in a middle class
neighborhood in Holland shortly after arriving here for a two days of
debate prep. ...
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clipped from Google - 10/2008
Palin paints Obama as 'big spender'MSNBC
- Oct 12, 2008
- 3 hours ago
CLAIRESVILLE, Ohio -- Palin focused on the economy Sunday, suggesting
Obama would raise taxes, increase spending and add to the national
debt. ...
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clipped from Google - 10/2008
Fingers crossed for Obamaguardian.co.uk
- Oct 12, 2008
- 5 hours ago
The responsibility of leading the United States and the developed
world through these increasingly grim times will soon fall to either
Barack Obama or John ...
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clipped from Google - 10/2008
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