Storm hitting California isn't an atmospheric river. What is it?

[Leroy N. Soetoro]

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/gulf-of-alaska-storm-soaks-
california-18489157.php

Early weather forecasts suggested California may see a super-soaking
atmospheric river this week.

Last week's forecast doesn't hold. Meteorologists are no longer using that
label to describe the system that's bringing a chance of rain to the
Golden State Tuesday through Sunday.

“It’s not an atmospheric river,” said Brian Garcia, a National Weather
Service meteorologist said. "This is a classic Gulf of Alaska low."

This means the storm will be dropping down from the Gulf Alaska, rather
than pulling in moisture from the subtropics, the southern Pacific Ocean
that includes the Hawaiian Islands.

"That area of low pressure and the associated moisture and energy is
coming from over a big area of high-pressure that’s over the central
Pacific," Garcia said. "Eventually, this system is going to get far enough
south that it could tap into some sub-tropical moisture and even then I
would never classify this as an atmospheric river."

Along with the change in the type of storm has come a drop in rainfall
totals, especially for Northern California's northwest corner. Original
forecasts indicated the Eureka area could see 5 to 6 inches of rain across
several days. "Now, we’re looking at amounts that will be 1 to 2 inches,
with isolated heavier amounts," said Rich Bann, a forecaster with the
weather service's Climate Prediction Center.

Far Northern California often sees more rain than the Bay Area when storms
sweep the coast. Bann said that with this system the Bay Area could see
rainfall amounts that are similar to those recorded to the north.

Projected rainfall amounts have also dropped slightly in other parts of
California. Last week, forecasters were predicting downtown San Francisco
could pick up as much as 2 to 3 inches of rain. The latest prediction is
that it could see 1 to 1.5 inches. Forecast totals for San Luis Obispo and
Los Angeles counties have dropped from 2 to 4 inches of rain to about 2
inches or less. Of course, the forecast continues to evolve and more or
less rain could fall.

"The heaviest rainfall looks to be confined to the coast and mostly
offshore," Bann said.


Here are some more specific projected rainfall totals for locations around
California:

Northern California, Tuesday through Saturday
Eureka: 0.5 to 1 inch
Redding: 0.25 to 0.5
Quincy: 0.1 to 0.25
Chico: 0.5 to 1 inch
Sacramento: 0.5 to 1 inch
Yosemite Valley: 1 to 1.5 inches
Fort Bragg: 1 to 1.5 inches
Santa Rosa: 1 to 1.5 inches
San Francisco 1 to 1.5 inches
San Jose: 0.5 to 1 inch

Central and Southern California, Wednesday through Sunday
Paso Robles: 1.29 inches
San Luis Obispo: 2.04 inches
Santa Barbara: 2.69 inches
Los Angeles: 1.68 inches
San Diego: 1 to 1.5 inch


Atmospheric rivers are known for transporting massive amounts of moisture
from the subtropics and releasing heavy rain soakings when they hit land.
Bann said that last week some long-range weather models showed this storm
"taking a plume of moisture from the Pacific and transporting it to the
West Coast in an atmospheric river fashion."

That forecast was from 5 to 6 days ago, and the weather has evolved
differently. "We still have an area of low pressure off the West coast of
California. It’s located farther to the west than when we were talking
last week," Bann said. "It won’t have the same plume of deep moisture that
it may have had a few days ago."

On Tuesday morning, the storm was sitting several hundred miles off the
coast of Mendocino. The system is expected to "wobble off the coast of
California" for several days, sending waves of rain to the state, before
moving across land over the weekend, said Roger Gass, a forecaster with
the weather service.

Gass said the Bay Area and Monterey regions are expected to receive three
distinct main waves of rain with this storm. The first one arrived Tuesday
morning and moved through the region quickly, with conditions to be mostly
dry this afternoon and evening. A second is predicted to bring more rain
on Wednesday, the day when the Bay Area may see the heaviest rain
associated with this system. A third will likely push across the region
Friday into Saturday. With this final wave of rain, the Monterey area will
likely receive more rain than the Bay Area, according to Gass.

As the storm pushes inland over the weekend, it will move across Central
and Southern California, Gass said.


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