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Re: La Nina, which worsens hurricanes and drought, is gone
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But global warming
Mar 10, 2023, 6:39:46 PM3/10/23
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On 26 Feb 2022, Kurt Nicklas <namblame...@gop.org> posted some
news:sve53j$1rkr2$1...@news.freedyn.de:
>
> Tucker Carlson is the best.
>
WASHINGTON (AP) — After three nasty years, the La Nina weather phenomenon
that increases Atlantic hurricane activity and worsens western drought is
gone, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.
That’s usually good news for the United States and other parts of the
world, including drought-stricken northeast Africa, scientists said.
The globe is now in what’s considered a “neutral” condition and probably
trending to an El Nino in late summer or fall, said climate scientist
Michelle L’Heureux, head of NOAA’s El Nino/La Nina forecast office.
“It’s over,” said research scientist Azhar Ehsan, who heads Columbia
University’s El Nino/La Nina forecasting. “Mother Nature thought to get
rid of this one because it’s enough.”
La Nina is a natural and temporary cooling of parts of the Pacific Ocean
that changes weather worldwide. In the United States, because La Nina is
connected to more Atlantic storms and deeper droughts and wildfires in the
West, La Ninas often are more damaging and expensive than their more
famous flip side, El Nino, experts said and studies show.
Generally, American agriculture is more damaged by La Nina than El Nino.
If the globe jumps into El Nino it means more rain for the Midwestern corn
belt and grains in general and could be beneficial, said Michael Ferrari,
chief scientific officer of Climate Alpha, a firm that advises investors
on financial decisions based on climate.
When there’s a La Nina, there are more storms in the Atlantic during
hurricane season because it removes conditions that suppress storm
formation. Neutral or El Nino conditions make it harder for storms to get
going, but not impossible, scientists said.
Over the last three years, the U.S. has been hit by 14 hurricanes and
tropical storms that caused a billion dollars or more in damage, totalling
$252 billion in costs, according to NOAA economist and meteorologist Adam
Smith said. La Nina and people building in harm's way were factors, he
said.
Climate change is a major factor in worsening extreme weather, alongside
La Nina, scientists said and numerous studies and reports show. Human-
caused warming is like an escalator going up: It makes temperatures
increase and extremes worse, while La Nina and El Nino are like jumping up
and down on the escalator, according to Northern Illinois University
atmospheric sciences professor Victor Gensini.
La Nina has also slightly dampened global average temperatures, keeping
warming from breaking annual temperature records, while El Nino slightly
turbocharges those temperatures often setting records, scientists said.
La Nina tends to make Western Africa wet, but Eastern Africa, around
Somalia, dry. The opposite happens in El Nino with drought-struck Somalia
likely to get steady “short rains,” Ehsan said. La Nina has wetter
conditions for Indonesia, parts of Australia and the Amazon, but those
areas are drier in El Nino, according to NOAA.
El Nino means more heat waves for India and Pakistan and other parts of
South Asia and weaker monsoons there, Ehsan said.
This particular La Nina, which started in September 2020 but is considered
three years old because it affected three different winters, was unusual
and one of the longest on record. It took a brief break in 2021 but came
roaring back with record intensity.
“I’m sick of this La Nina,” Ehsan said. L’Heureux agreed, saying she’s
ready to talk about something else.
The few other times that there’s been a triple-dip La Nina have come after
strong El Ninos and there’s clear physics on why that happens. But that’s
not what happened with this La Nina, L’Heureux said. This one didn’t have
a strong El Nino before it.
Even though this La Nina has confounded scientists in the past, they say
the signs of it leaving are clear: Water in the key part of the central
Pacific warmed to a bit more than the threshold for a La Nina in February,
the atmosphere showed some changes and along the eastern Pacific near
Peru, there’s already El Nino-like warming brewing on the coast, L’Heureux
said.
Think of a La Nina or El Nino as something that pushes the weather system
from the Pacific with ripple effects worldwide, L’Heureux said. When there
are neutral conditions like now, there’s less push from the Pacific. That
means other climatic factors, including the long-term warming trend, have
more influence in day-to-day weather, she said.
Without an El Nino or La Nina, forecasters have a harder time predicting
seasonal weather trends for summer or fall because the Pacific Ocean has
such a big footprint in weeks-long forecasts.
El Nino forecasts made in the spring are generally less reliable than ones
made other times of year, so scientists are less sure about what will
happen next, L’Heureux said. But NOAA’s forecast said there’s a 60% chance
that El Nino will take charge come fall.
There’s also a 5% chance that La Nina will return for an unprecedented
fourth dip. L’Heureux said she really doesn’t want that but the scientist
in her would find that interesting. ___ Follow AP’s climate and
environment coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment ___
Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears ___ Associated Press
climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private
foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely
responsible for all content.
<https://news.yahoo.com/forecasters-la-nina-weathers-unwanted-
140239918.html>
news:sve53j$1rkr2$1...@news.freedyn.de:
>
> Tucker Carlson is the best.
>
WASHINGTON (AP) — After three nasty years, the La Nina weather phenomenon
that increases Atlantic hurricane activity and worsens western drought is
gone, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.
That’s usually good news for the United States and other parts of the
world, including drought-stricken northeast Africa, scientists said.
The globe is now in what’s considered a “neutral” condition and probably
trending to an El Nino in late summer or fall, said climate scientist
Michelle L’Heureux, head of NOAA’s El Nino/La Nina forecast office.
“It’s over,” said research scientist Azhar Ehsan, who heads Columbia
University’s El Nino/La Nina forecasting. “Mother Nature thought to get
rid of this one because it’s enough.”
La Nina is a natural and temporary cooling of parts of the Pacific Ocean
that changes weather worldwide. In the United States, because La Nina is
connected to more Atlantic storms and deeper droughts and wildfires in the
West, La Ninas often are more damaging and expensive than their more
famous flip side, El Nino, experts said and studies show.
Generally, American agriculture is more damaged by La Nina than El Nino.
If the globe jumps into El Nino it means more rain for the Midwestern corn
belt and grains in general and could be beneficial, said Michael Ferrari,
chief scientific officer of Climate Alpha, a firm that advises investors
on financial decisions based on climate.
When there’s a La Nina, there are more storms in the Atlantic during
hurricane season because it removes conditions that suppress storm
formation. Neutral or El Nino conditions make it harder for storms to get
going, but not impossible, scientists said.
Over the last three years, the U.S. has been hit by 14 hurricanes and
tropical storms that caused a billion dollars or more in damage, totalling
$252 billion in costs, according to NOAA economist and meteorologist Adam
Smith said. La Nina and people building in harm's way were factors, he
said.
Climate change is a major factor in worsening extreme weather, alongside
La Nina, scientists said and numerous studies and reports show. Human-
caused warming is like an escalator going up: It makes temperatures
increase and extremes worse, while La Nina and El Nino are like jumping up
and down on the escalator, according to Northern Illinois University
atmospheric sciences professor Victor Gensini.
La Nina has also slightly dampened global average temperatures, keeping
warming from breaking annual temperature records, while El Nino slightly
turbocharges those temperatures often setting records, scientists said.
La Nina tends to make Western Africa wet, but Eastern Africa, around
Somalia, dry. The opposite happens in El Nino with drought-struck Somalia
likely to get steady “short rains,” Ehsan said. La Nina has wetter
conditions for Indonesia, parts of Australia and the Amazon, but those
areas are drier in El Nino, according to NOAA.
El Nino means more heat waves for India and Pakistan and other parts of
South Asia and weaker monsoons there, Ehsan said.
This particular La Nina, which started in September 2020 but is considered
three years old because it affected three different winters, was unusual
and one of the longest on record. It took a brief break in 2021 but came
roaring back with record intensity.
“I’m sick of this La Nina,” Ehsan said. L’Heureux agreed, saying she’s
ready to talk about something else.
The few other times that there’s been a triple-dip La Nina have come after
strong El Ninos and there’s clear physics on why that happens. But that’s
not what happened with this La Nina, L’Heureux said. This one didn’t have
a strong El Nino before it.
Even though this La Nina has confounded scientists in the past, they say
the signs of it leaving are clear: Water in the key part of the central
Pacific warmed to a bit more than the threshold for a La Nina in February,
the atmosphere showed some changes and along the eastern Pacific near
Peru, there’s already El Nino-like warming brewing on the coast, L’Heureux
said.
Think of a La Nina or El Nino as something that pushes the weather system
from the Pacific with ripple effects worldwide, L’Heureux said. When there
are neutral conditions like now, there’s less push from the Pacific. That
means other climatic factors, including the long-term warming trend, have
more influence in day-to-day weather, she said.
Without an El Nino or La Nina, forecasters have a harder time predicting
seasonal weather trends for summer or fall because the Pacific Ocean has
such a big footprint in weeks-long forecasts.
El Nino forecasts made in the spring are generally less reliable than ones
made other times of year, so scientists are less sure about what will
happen next, L’Heureux said. But NOAA’s forecast said there’s a 60% chance
that El Nino will take charge come fall.
There’s also a 5% chance that La Nina will return for an unprecedented
fourth dip. L’Heureux said she really doesn’t want that but the scientist
in her would find that interesting. ___ Follow AP’s climate and
environment coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment ___
Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears ___ Associated Press
climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private
foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely
responsible for all content.
<https://news.yahoo.com/forecasters-la-nina-weathers-unwanted-
140239918.html>
Klaus Schadenfreude
Mar 10, 2023, 6:50:10 PM3/10/23
to
On Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:39:44 +0100 (CET), But global warming
<but.globa...@gmail.com> wrote:
>On 26 Feb 2022, Kurt Nicklas <namblame...@gop.org> posted some
>news:sve53j$1rkr2$1...@news.freedyn.de:
>
>>
>> Tucker Carlson is the best.
>>
>
>WASHINGTON (AP) — After three nasty years, the La Nina weather phenomenon
>that increases Atlantic hurricane activity and worsens western drought is
>gone, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.
Thank God for Greta and her unending efforts!
<but.globa...@gmail.com> wrote:
>On 26 Feb 2022, Kurt Nicklas <namblame...@gop.org> posted some
>news:sve53j$1rkr2$1...@news.freedyn.de:
>
>>
>> Tucker Carlson is the best.
>>
>
>WASHINGTON (AP) — After three nasty years, the La Nina weather phenomenon
>that increases Atlantic hurricane activity and worsens western drought is
>gone, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.
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