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Terabuck In Bad Commercial Loans to Hit Banking System This Year
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68g.1509
Feb 18, 2024, 12:21:06 AMFeb 18
to
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13084051/commercial-real-estate-banking-crisis-office-space.html
Commercial real estate 'debt bomb' of $929 billion comes due
this year with HUNDREDS of banks facing insolvency runs if
default rates on the loans spike
Some $929 billion in commercial real estate loans will come
due in 2024
About 14% of all CRE loans and 44% of office loans appear
to be underwater
Recent study warns of widespread risk of bank failures if
defaults spike to 10%
. . .
Hmmmm ... seems it wasn't THAT long ago that banks
making mass quantities of CRAP loans took it up
the ass.
NOBODY LEARNS A DAMNED THING !
They're gonna get it two ways. First, as writ, the bad
"commercial" real-estate/biz loans. There were also too
many loans based on THIS real-estate bubble, just like
during the last crash.
The inflated real-estate market IS beginning to crack
now, only idiots bought-in at the ridiculous prices
and nobody can afford the current market anymore.
Values could drop maybe 25% by the end of the year
and a lot of interests just ain't gonna pay those
bank loans anymore.
Alas, due to PostCovid/JoeFlation/etc, a huge number of
biz/office properties now stand vacant - no money being
made. When the loans come due - NADA.
The top "big banks" are probably covered - but the
smaller lenders, regional banks, a fair number of
of private lenders ... they're gonna HURT from this.
Some project that regional banks are just doomed
and Wells/BOA/Chase/Citi and a few others will be
only sure survivors. The SVB debacle last year will
be the pattern for many.
Banks try to seize the day ... make as many big loans
as possible in a short period when markets/etc are
rising. Top officers and some more shady interests
make good commissions/profits from that. Of course
it doesn't last - and then We The People wind up
bailing them out somehow. Time for CRIMINAL CHARGES
for criminally-negligent lending ???
Commercial real estate 'debt bomb' of $929 billion comes due
this year with HUNDREDS of banks facing insolvency runs if
default rates on the loans spike
Some $929 billion in commercial real estate loans will come
due in 2024
About 14% of all CRE loans and 44% of office loans appear
to be underwater
Recent study warns of widespread risk of bank failures if
defaults spike to 10%
. . .
Hmmmm ... seems it wasn't THAT long ago that banks
making mass quantities of CRAP loans took it up
the ass.
NOBODY LEARNS A DAMNED THING !
They're gonna get it two ways. First, as writ, the bad
"commercial" real-estate/biz loans. There were also too
many loans based on THIS real-estate bubble, just like
during the last crash.
The inflated real-estate market IS beginning to crack
now, only idiots bought-in at the ridiculous prices
and nobody can afford the current market anymore.
Values could drop maybe 25% by the end of the year
and a lot of interests just ain't gonna pay those
bank loans anymore.
Alas, due to PostCovid/JoeFlation/etc, a huge number of
biz/office properties now stand vacant - no money being
made. When the loans come due - NADA.
The top "big banks" are probably covered - but the
smaller lenders, regional banks, a fair number of
of private lenders ... they're gonna HURT from this.
Some project that regional banks are just doomed
and Wells/BOA/Chase/Citi and a few others will be
only sure survivors. The SVB debacle last year will
be the pattern for many.
Banks try to seize the day ... make as many big loans
as possible in a short period when markets/etc are
rising. Top officers and some more shady interests
make good commissions/profits from that. Of course
it doesn't last - and then We The People wind up
bailing them out somehow. Time for CRIMINAL CHARGES
for criminally-negligent lending ???
pyotr filipivich
Feb 18, 2024, 10:57:57 AMFeb 18
to
"68g.1509" <68g....@exr3.net> on Sun, 18 Feb 2024 00:20:56 -0500
typed in alt.survival the following:
bubble.
It is that the demand for commercial real estate space has
dropped. With people working from home - who needs a big office with
a prestigious address?
People working from home, retail stores are not going to get the
commuter trade. (That includes the sandwich, lunch, and coffee
places.)
People voted for progressive politicians, taxes are up, services
(cops) are down, employees don't feel safe coming to, or at, work,
customers don't feel safe coming to shop, or while shopping. The only
ones showing up regularly are the gangs sent to resupply their stores.
Stores start closing.
Progressive politicians blame skin color rather than the culture
they are supporting. Then raise taxes to pay for their pet programs,
which are falling on a smaller tax base, which means cutbacks have to
be made.
Who wants to own property in down town Progressive City, with the
crime, open air drug markets, high taxes, no cops, cutback in services
to pay for the "migrants", etc? Time to sell the building.
When occupancy rates won't pay the bills, let alone make a loan
payment, sell the building.
Assuming you can find a buyer. Who wants to buy property in down
town Progressive City, with the crime, open air drug markets, high
taxes, no cops, cutback in services to pay for the Sanctuary Status,
etc, just because it has what was a Prestigious Address?
Maybe at a discount. Say - 50 cents on the dollar? Twenty five?
How much would you pay for a building with an 8% occupancy rate?
(That's 8 out of a 100 spaces are rented - 92 are vacant).
How much would you pay for a property you can't use because the
squatters have more rights to use your property than you do?
Then the politicians you supported decide to solve inflation by
"printing" money by the pallet load, further devaluing the dollar, and
the Fed is forced to raise interest rates, are you going to refinance
the loan [which will be based on a lower valuation of the property] at
a higher interest rate, when already you can't pay the bills?
--
pyotr filipivich
This Week's Panel: Us & Them - Eliminating Them.
Next Month's Panel: Having eliminated the old Them(tm)
Selecting who insufficiently Woke(tm) as to serve as the new Them(tm)
typed in alt.survival the following:
> . .
>
> Hmmmm ... seems it wasn't THAT long ago that banks
> making mass quantities of CRAP loans took it up
> the ass.
>
> NOBODY LEARNS A DAMNED THING !
>
> They're gonna get it two ways. First, as writ, the bad
> "commercial" real-estate/biz loans. There were also too
> many loans based on THIS real-estate bubble, just like
> during the last crash.
>
> The inflated real-estate market IS beginning to crack
> now, only idiots bought-in at the ridiculous prices
> and nobody can afford the current market anymore.
> Values could drop maybe 25% by the end of the year
> and a lot of interests just ain't gonna pay those
> bank loans anymore.
It is isn't that they bought high, or that the market is in a
>
> Hmmmm ... seems it wasn't THAT long ago that banks
> making mass quantities of CRAP loans took it up
> the ass.
>
> NOBODY LEARNS A DAMNED THING !
>
> They're gonna get it two ways. First, as writ, the bad
> "commercial" real-estate/biz loans. There were also too
> many loans based on THIS real-estate bubble, just like
> during the last crash.
>
> The inflated real-estate market IS beginning to crack
> now, only idiots bought-in at the ridiculous prices
> and nobody can afford the current market anymore.
> Values could drop maybe 25% by the end of the year
> and a lot of interests just ain't gonna pay those
> bank loans anymore.
bubble.
It is that the demand for commercial real estate space has
dropped. With people working from home - who needs a big office with
a prestigious address?
People working from home, retail stores are not going to get the
commuter trade. (That includes the sandwich, lunch, and coffee
places.)
People voted for progressive politicians, taxes are up, services
(cops) are down, employees don't feel safe coming to, or at, work,
customers don't feel safe coming to shop, or while shopping. The only
ones showing up regularly are the gangs sent to resupply their stores.
Stores start closing.
Progressive politicians blame skin color rather than the culture
they are supporting. Then raise taxes to pay for their pet programs,
which are falling on a smaller tax base, which means cutbacks have to
be made.
Who wants to own property in down town Progressive City, with the
crime, open air drug markets, high taxes, no cops, cutback in services
to pay for the "migrants", etc? Time to sell the building.
When occupancy rates won't pay the bills, let alone make a loan
payment, sell the building.
Assuming you can find a buyer. Who wants to buy property in down
town Progressive City, with the crime, open air drug markets, high
taxes, no cops, cutback in services to pay for the Sanctuary Status,
etc, just because it has what was a Prestigious Address?
Maybe at a discount. Say - 50 cents on the dollar? Twenty five?
How much would you pay for a building with an 8% occupancy rate?
(That's 8 out of a 100 spaces are rented - 92 are vacant).
How much would you pay for a property you can't use because the
squatters have more rights to use your property than you do?
Then the politicians you supported decide to solve inflation by
"printing" money by the pallet load, further devaluing the dollar, and
the Fed is forced to raise interest rates, are you going to refinance
the loan [which will be based on a lower valuation of the property] at
a higher interest rate, when already you can't pay the bills?
--
pyotr filipivich
This Week's Panel: Us & Them - Eliminating Them.
Next Month's Panel: Having eliminated the old Them(tm)
Selecting who insufficiently Woke(tm) as to serve as the new Them(tm)
68g.1509
Feb 18, 2024, 7:43:28 PMFeb 18
to
On 2/18/24 10:57 AM, pyotr filipivich wrote:
> "68g.1509" <68g....@exr3.net> on Sun, 18 Feb 2024 00:20:56 -0500
> typed in alt.survival the following:
>> . .
>>
>> Hmmmm ... seems it wasn't THAT long ago that banks
>> making mass quantities of CRAP loans took it up
>> the ass.
>>
>> NOBODY LEARNS A DAMNED THING !
>>
>> They're gonna get it two ways. First, as writ, the bad
>> "commercial" real-estate/biz loans. There were also too
>> many loans based on THIS real-estate bubble, just like
>> during the last crash.
>>
>> The inflated real-estate market IS beginning to crack
>> now, only idiots bought-in at the ridiculous prices
>> and nobody can afford the current market anymore.
>> Values could drop maybe 25% by the end of the year
>> and a lot of interests just ain't gonna pay those
>> bank loans anymore.
>
> It is isn't that they bought high, or that the market is in a
> bubble.
We're talking several different kinds of loans here.
> "68g.1509" <68g....@exr3.net> on Sun, 18 Feb 2024 00:20:56 -0500
> typed in alt.survival the following:
>> . .
>>
>> Hmmmm ... seems it wasn't THAT long ago that banks
>> making mass quantities of CRAP loans took it up
>> the ass.
>>
>> NOBODY LEARNS A DAMNED THING !
>>
>> They're gonna get it two ways. First, as writ, the bad
>> "commercial" real-estate/biz loans. There were also too
>> many loans based on THIS real-estate bubble, just like
>> during the last crash.
>>
>> The inflated real-estate market IS beginning to crack
>> now, only idiots bought-in at the ridiculous prices
>> and nobody can afford the current market anymore.
>> Values could drop maybe 25% by the end of the year
>> and a lot of interests just ain't gonna pay those
>> bank loans anymore.
>
> It is isn't that they bought high, or that the market is in a
> bubble.
Ordinary real-estate DID experience a bubble - and banks
did keep making bigger loans as the price went up. Wasn't
QUITE as bad as last time though because a surprising
amount of the cash came from buyers themselves, sans loans.
BIZ real-estate ... that's the main subject. People/Corps
bought office/warehouse/retail space and now they're out
of biz or in bad shape and can't/won't pay. JoeFlation
and minimum-wage/etc laws made it even worse. The online
and 'from home' bits also contributed, but note that only
so many kinds of jobs can be done remotely.
Things have just been floundering since Covid & Joe. While
large concerns have done OK, it's the "Fred's Bakery" and
"MidTown Walk-In Clinic" and "Lamps & Shades" sort of
businesses that either failed or failed to even start.
The banks and other lenders are seriously on the hook
for all those storefronts/offices. A trillion dollars
(plus expected interest) ain't to be sneezed at.
reduce the value of the currency. It's part of the federal
economic toolbox ... and the tools are mostly crap.
On the flip, 'economies' are huge complex tangled things and
"control" is more faith and illusion. But, they TRY - and
it's usually bad for all of us (except a certain elite).
Alas now, high interest rates (another tool in the rusty
box) are inhibiting business - old and new. Get financing
now and you're screwed.
As for WokieVille cities .... there's a lot of doom that's
going on there. It's the fault of their voters - who are
now getting what they asked for - but that's small consolation
since their screw-up burns us all via banking/finance systems.
Vincent
Feb 18, 2024, 9:24:43 PMFeb 18
to
rbowman
Feb 18, 2024, 10:18:59 PMFeb 18
to
On Sun, 18 Feb 2024 19:43:15 -0500, 68g.1509 wrote:
> The banks and other lenders are seriously on the hook for all those
> storefronts/offices. A trillion dollars (plus expected interest)
> ain't to be sneezed at.
The same thing happened in the late '80s when the tax code encouraged
> The banks and other lenders are seriously on the hook for all those
> storefronts/offices. A trillion dollars (plus expected interest)
> ain't to be sneezed at.
building unneeded office space.
😎 Mighty Wannabe ✅
Feb 18, 2024, 10:29:52 PMFeb 18
to
makers in DC.
68g.1509
Feb 19, 2024, 12:42:20 AMFeb 19
to
But the global economy is worse now, harder to
recover - IF possible at all.
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