Frank Wrote:
> Sigh! Can you all *please* get a *clue* or shut up (before making
> yourselves even more silly).
>
> As he said a zillion times, *Don Roberto* is *not* talking about 'life
> expectancy'. *He* only said "We live twice a long as we did a hundred
> years ago.". Saying "living ... as long" is *not* the same as talking
> about life expectancy. So everybody, including you, is 'proving' an army
> of straw men.
Frank,
Respectfully Frank, I think your wrong on this issue.
Saying "we live twice as long as we did a hundred year ago" is
derived, ultimately, from the life expectancy tables.
I doubt bob looked up the tables but this is a common understanding
that goes back to someone that did look at the life expectancy tables
and then repeated this over and over. What other source of information
do you think justifies the statement "we live twice as long as we did
a hundred year ago" come from. It's the life expectancy tables. If you
know of another source of information that justifies this statement
please let me know.
All I pointed out was that the substantial increase in *life
expectancy* or why we live twice as long* is due primarily to
decreased infant/childhood/young adult mortality. Not an decrease
middle aged mortality. In the last 3 decades gains are starting to be
made at older ages but these are still dwarfed by the decrease in
childhood mortality. In bob's statement he tied this increase to use
of some diabetes drugs, drugs that are used at older ages. These drugs
have not been responsible for "people living twice as long" as they
did a hundred years ago. Decreases in infant/childhood mortality are.
*Life expectancy* (a defined metric) is just an average calculated by
the number of births divided by the ages at death. *Life span*(another
defined metric), on the other hand,is how long the oldest live. Life
span has definitely NOT doubled or even changed substantially in the
last 100 years. If bob was referring to *life span* then he is wrong.
If life span had doubled in the last 150 years we would now have a
substantial number of 160 -200 year olds walking around. The oldest
now, as was the oldest 150 years ago, still die in their late 80s to
early 100s. This metric (life span) has Not increased.
If he was referring to *life expectancy* then he is correct and my
expansion on what this really means is justified.
Many folks incorrectly assume that because the life expectancy in 1850
was 40, there weren't many folks older than 40 walking around. No
true. Once you made it 15 odds were good you would make it to 60. If
*life span* had doubled in the last 150 then you wouldn't have found
many folks older that 40 in 1850. BUT- Life span hasn't changed much
at all, life expectancy has.
If bob was Not referring to *life expectancy*, as you claim, then he
is wrong - We do not live twice as long as we did 100 years ago.
The tables that show *living twice as long now compared to 100 years
ago (acutally 150 years ago) are all based on *life expectancy
tables*, not *life span* tables.
I posted this previously and I post again to high light the
distinction between *life span* and *life expectancy*:
**************************
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy
Life expectancy vs. life span [edit]
Life expectancy is often confused with life span to the point that
they are nearly synonyms; when people hear 'life expectancy was 35
years' they often interpret this as meaning that people of that time
or place had short life spans.[74] One such example can be seen in the
In Search of... episode "The Man Who Would Not Die" (About Count of
St. Germain) where it is stated "Evidence recently discovered in the
British Museum indicates that St. Germain may have well been the long
lost third son of Rákóczi born in Transylvania in 1694. If he died in
Germany in 1784, he lived 90 years. The average life expectancy in the
18th century was 35 years. Fifty was a ripe old age. Ninety... was
forever."
This ignores the fact that the life expectancy generally quoted is the
at birth number which is an average that includes all the babies that
die before their first year of life as well as people that die from
disease and war. The genetics of humans and rate of aging were no
different in preindustrial societies than today, but people frequently
died young because of untreatable diseases, accidents, and
malnutrition. Many women did not survive childbirth, and individuals
who reached old age were likely to succumb quickly to health problems.
It can be argued that it is better to compare life expectancies of the
period after adulthood to get a better handle on life span.[75] Even
during childhood, life expectancy can take a huge jump as seen in the
Roman Life Expectancy table at the University of Texas where at birth
the life expectancy was 25 but at the age of 5 it jumped to 48.
Studies like Plymouth Plantation; "Dead at Forty" and Life Expectancy
by Age, 1850–2004 similarly show a dramatic increase in life
expectancy once adulthood was reached.
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Randy