What Is Souray Worth To The Habs?
crussellp
wondering what Souray is really worth.
Here is what I am thinking;
I like Souray. I love his shot and his on ice attitude. He has a
presence. We have not seen that since Doug Gilmore was here.
BUT...
The last cup... the last two cups... who was our cannon? Was it THAT
important?
Hmm....
'86....
Larry Robinson; 19 G 63 A = 82 PTS (Damn he was good!!!!)
Chris Chelios (In only 41games) 8 G 26 A = 34 PTS
'93
Eric Desjardins 13 G 32 A = 45 PTS
Mathieu Schneider 13 G 31 A = 44 PTS
So one year Robinson was our stud on D and it paid off... in 93... it
was more team D....
I don't know what I am getting at here... I wrote this as I looked
over the stats and I am less decided now than I was before.
I suppose what I get from it all is that signing Sheldon would be
great... Signing him at all costs is likely not worth it.
I say $5.5 over 4. He asks for more... explore other options like
making damn sure you get Drury or Smith. Scoring has to come from some
where.
CRussellP
--
Animadvertistine, ubicumque stes, fumum recta in faciem ferri?
Marty
hole in the D. I disagree. Losing Sheldon will leave a hole in the PP.
However, a moderately good defenceman will be stronger in the Hab's end
of the rink than Sheldon. If he's an efficient passer, he'll help the
transition game more than Sheldon.
So, say, even a Danny Markov will do more to help the GA average than
Sheldon, at about half the price (maybe). A Priessing will help the
overall two-way game more than Sheldon.
Neither those types will make the PP #1 in the league. We might have to
give that up. But D-men more solid in their own end and who are decent
passers, not just bang-it-out types, plus one or two key additions at
forward, and I can see a recipe that will score enough to pretty much
make up for an enevitable drop in PP production, and prevent enough goals
to perhaps more than make up for it.
It'll be a different team, for sure. But do we want the same? #1 PP,
terrible 5 on 5, = 19th place finish.
Yes, at $2.4 million Souray was a bargin and it is too bad money was
wasted elsewhere (i.e. Samsanov), but at $5.5 - $6.0 million Souray would
cost a fortune and we return with an almost identical team perhaps in
terms of all the "major" talent. Because of the budget constraints,
perhaps it is time to see if we can put togther a strong, defensively
sound defence, good at getting it out under control, and if we need to
invest $6.0 million on someone, perhaps a #1 winger, or a top line center
so we can have 2 #1 lines.
I know, in the end, there's a risk we miss every big name free agent out
there. But right now, Souray's just another big name free agent in my
mind, wanting huge money for one big season. He carries as many risks as
anyone, more than many really. I like the idea of trying to turn the
"crisis" of possibly losing Souray into an opportunity of trying to
remake our defence into a more solid, puck moving squadron, even if it
will lack the admittedly devasting blast from the point that Souray
offered.
Marty
crussellp <crus...@gmail.com> wrote in news:1182996625.178235.13100
@c77g2000hse.googlegroups.com:
j.b...@comcast.net
> In the same spirit of the thread "What is Ryder Worth to you?", I am
> wondering what Souray is really worth.
>
> Here is what I am thinking;
>
> I like Souray. I love his shot and his on ice attitude. He has a
> presence. We have not seen that since Doug Gilmore was here.
Odd. The only thing I noticed about Gilmour's presence was the
cognitive dissonance he provoked in me. "I don't like the guy, but
he's a Hab now!"
> BUT...
>
> The last cup... the last two cups... who was our cannon? Was it THAT
> important?
I'm not sure how productive a line a reasoning this is.
First, although it's nice to aim high, I'm not sure it's all that
helpful to talk about what will bring the Habs a Cup in '08.
Second, there are lots of ways to win the Stanely Cup. You can win
with great goaltending (Roy, Brodeur) or merely above-average
(Giguere, Vernon, Barasso). You can win with one or more stud
defensemen (Neidermeyer/Pronger, Lidstrom, Bourque/Blake, Neidermeyer/
Stevens), or with a collection of solid but unspectacular D-men
(Tampa, Carolina). You can win with Canadians (and if I had to hear
one more time at the draft about how Anaheim supposedly is the model
for drafting now....) or with Europeans (no shortage of them on those
Detroit teams).
To me, the issues are:
1) What allows us to put the best team on the ice in 2007-08;
2) without sacrificing the future
> I suppose what I get from it all is that signing Sheldon would be
> great... Signing him at all costs is likely not worth it.
But what are the costs? You don't have to give up draft picks to sign
him. You don't have to trade away Ryder or anyone else. You give up
some of George's money (which I don't care about), and you give up
some cap space.
But what good is cap space? You can only use it to acquire players,
period. And right now, you can't have a very reliable idea of whether
you'll be able to get a Rafalski or Smyth or whoever else it is you
covet. You have almost NO idea whatsoever whether Vinny Lecavalier or
Jarome Iginla or whoever else might be a free agent in the future will
ever really become available.
There are some other possible costs. It COULD be that, if you
"overpay" Sheldon, you get a reputation as a weak bargainer who will
eventually cave in, and that COULD hurt you in the future. It COULD
be that paying Sheldon "too much" will offend Andrei Markov. But
these are very speculative.
So it all circles back to the opportunity costs. Basically, I'd do
the following. Start with the cap amount. Deduct the current
salaries and buyouts, plus what I think I need for the RFAs, plus a
modest margin of error for trades and other moves during the season.
Set aside what I think it will take to land my ideal UFA (Smyth). The
rest is what I'd be willing to offer Souray if that's what it took.
And if that's still not enough, then I take a long hard look at how
likely I think I am to land that ideal UFA anyway. I'm too lazy to
look up the most recent edition of Gerry's cap estimates, so my
specific answer will have to wait.
The one thing I wouldn't do is obsess about "overpaying." Practically
everybody who's a UFA or UFA-eligible is "overpaid" in at least some
peoples' eyes. Your choices are to overpay Souray, or let him walk
and hope you get the chance to overpay one or more other guys. There
are no bargains in free agency.
Jim
crussellp
But the over paying element is one of the most inportant elements to
this problem. Yes it is GG's money... but the so what is we will be
fucked to make any real moves this year at the trade deadline if we
need to and next year we may have an albatros of Aucoin-ian
proportions.
Foolishly overpaying Souray this year and signing him to a 3 or 4 year
contract could quite easily be our down fall.
This is why I say he is not worth it "At all costs". Break the bank
for Crosby... Lecavalier... Iggy... but, for the love of God... NOT
Souray.
Wouldn't that suck if some one sends an offer sheet to an RFA named
Price that we CANT match because of Souray's "At all costs" 5 year
$6.3M contract?
j.b...@comcast.net
> But the over paying element is one of the most inportant elements to
> this problem. Yes it is GG's money... but the so what is we will be
> fucked to make any real moves this year at the trade deadline if we
> need to and next year we may have an albatros of Aucoin-ian
> proportions.
I guess I just don't think he's that big a risk. Yes, there's an
injury history. And I don't expect him to put up 26 goals every
year. But you know, I don't expect him to put up a -28 every year,
either. I think Sheldon can play better defensively than he did this
year, and I accept that he'll probably have a slight decline
offensively.
But that's factored into the price, too. If he was a consistent 25+
goal man, we'd be talking about $7 million a year.
> Foolishly overpaying Souray this year and signing him to a 3 or 4 year
> contract could quite easily be our down fall.
That's a little melodramatic, but sure, you could regret it. Just
like you take a risk when you sign Samsonov. Or Ryan Smyth. Or Scott
Hannan or Tom Preissing or whoever else you have in mind. Sheldon's
probably less risky than Samsonov, and more risky than those other
guys.
> This is why I say he is not worth it "At all costs". Break the bank
> for Crosby... Lecavalier... Iggy... but, for the love of God... NOT
> Souray.
Well, you keep waiting for Crosby and those other guys to make it to
free agency if you want. Yes, yes, I know -- Sidney grew up a Habs
fan, and Vinny's a Quebecois. I'm still not holding my breath. Your
choices are (1) Souray; (2) one of this year's UFAs; (3) a prayer.
> Wouldn't that suck if some one sends an offer sheet to an RFA named
> Price that we CANT match because of Souray's "At all costs" 5 year
> $6.3M contract?
First, that won't happen. It's pretty much mathematically
impossible. I won't bother calculating how soon Price would be RFA
eligible; I'll take your point to be "Price or some other young
stud" (especially since it's hardly a sure thing that Price will turn
into a stud). But the reality is that (1) the cap pretty much goes up
a couple of million every year; (2) a couple of contracts expire every
year; (3) there are always ways to free up space, via buyouts and
trades.
Second, if someone wants to cough up 5 first round picks for a Habs
RFA, I'm inclined to accept right now without knowing who it is.
Jim
Gerry
> But the over paying element is one of the most inportant elements to
> this problem. Yes it is GG's money... but the so what is we will be
> fucked to make any real moves this year at the trade deadline if we
> need to and next year we may have an albatros of Aucoin-ian
> proportions.
>
> Foolishly overpaying Souray this year and signing him to a 3 or 4 year
> contract could quite easily be our down fall.
Jim has had some great views on all this in this thread and I salute
him! <salute>
But I kind of want to pick on this whole idea of "fear" that
"overpaying" Souray could be our downfall. It seems to be predicated
on the expectation that if you're paying him $6M or whatever, then
you're paying it for a 25-goal/60-pt defenseman with all the rest of
the "intangible" elements that Souray brings (basically size,
leadership, toughness). And that any future performance of his which
comes in under that bar would represent some kind of cap-nightmare
disaster (or "albatross").
I don't agree with that. Whether Souray can score 25 goals again is
not something that matters to me (at least, not contract-wise). I'm
pretty sure he's good for 15 almost no matter what. That would still
be near the top of the NHL for defensemen. And he'll still always
have the size, leadership, toughness elements. Find him the right
defense partner, and I even think his defensive weaknesses could be
minimized. And so... with all of those considerations... I *still*
think he's worth the upper end $5.5-6M salary in today's market, even
assuming he's a 15-goal 45-pt defenseman for most of the rest of the
contract.
As Jim said, you are going to "overpay" no matter who you get. Maybe
if Souray's performance comes back down to the expectations I outlined
above, people will think he's "only" a $4-5M defenseman. But I just
keep coming back to the thought that even if that's so... "overpaying"
by $1-2M is really to me just a premium paid to ensure that you at
least fill the spot. Going onto the open market risks getting
nobody. Or ultimately overpaying somebody less ideal by even more.
Or having to trade away assets that we can't afford to trade away.
Etc. $1-2M is a very small price to pay to avoid all that, IMHO.
And guess what... we do actually already know that Souray is _capable_
of that 25-goal performance. We've seen it. We might not _expect_ it
to ever come again, but we certainly can't argue that it's
_impossible_. So what if he does do it again? And what if he also
continues to make some of the adjustments towards improving his
defensive play (that I think we saw later in the season) and/or what
if we find a really nice complementary guy for him to play with that
makes some of those concerns go away? I don't think it's _impossible_
that a $6M deal for Souray could actually start to look more like a
"bargain" than an "overpayment" somewhere down the road. Nobody ever
seems to mention that possibility. But the way defense contracts are
going, with guys like McCabe and Jovanovski and Kubina etc making what
they are, and Timonen now, and more and more inflation coming... it
ain't gonna get any cheaper to pin down a top-4 guy in the future,
that's for sure. Getting Souray locked up for the rest of his prime
years could turn out to be a lifesaver for us as the market just gets
crazier and crazier. Even if he never comes very close to this year's
gaudy PP numbers again.
Players don't often become "albatrosses" for no reason at all.
Aucoin's effectiveness was nullified by injuries. But injuries could
happen to *anybody* you choose to sign. Souray may be more
susceptible than some, but it's interesting to note that after his
past injury troubles he actually only emerged as a BETTER player, not
an Aucoin.
l8r,
Gerry
Ed
"Gerry" <ger...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1183035717....@k29g2000hsd.googlegroups.com...
Well Gerry, I didn't think it was possible but I think you have swayed me to
the 'sign Souray' side. Even if it is at more than 'we' see as fair for him.
15-20 goals and a suitable partner could easily turn him into a more
valuable resource than even he was last season.
I think the entire team has to work more on their defense AS A TEAM, and
with the 3 guys behind the bench, they have solid teachers. There was a
noticable improvememnt throughout the year and as long as all players sign
on, things will be better. Especially when dealing with an offensive threat
on the blueline like SS, the forwards have to be more concious that someone
has to cover when he comes up.
If he can perform anywhere near last season's offensive numbers and improve
the D, I'll take him @ 6 mil for 3-4 years.
Ed
Marty
does not seem to be displaying much interest. If Souray wanted to reutrn to
the Hab's, why has he not even bothers to return a counter-offer (as of
last report)? Surely if someone's heart was in Montreal, they'd at least
throw a number back at the Hab's brass, even it was far higher than the
Habs original offer. When Smyth was negotiating with the Oilers they
battled hard and got very close, but neither side was willing to bridge the
final gap (hence the trade). However, in this scenario, there is no gap.
One Hab offer, the next couple weeks basically nothing.
So, ya know, we throw around some mythical numbers that we make up. $5.75
million, $6.0 million, or my favorite, just the statement "we need to sign
him at whatever cost". However, IMO, Souray isn't showing any mutual
interest here. Even if you think it was a lowball offer, Montreal threw a
number out there, and Souray's agent seems to have taken that ball and gone
home. I suppose we can go over to his house and knock on the door and ask
him please to come out and play again, but currently I would posit the
theory that the Habs are NOT souray's first choice, so all this speculation
about whether we should capitulate to Souray's mythical number could be
totally meaningless. Like Shanny signing for less money to go to NYR,
perhaps Souray isn't even willing to come back at price X, if it is matched
by another team he'd prefer to go to. The fact that Souray's agent won't
even throw a number back at us suggests this is probably the case.
earl
> I would also like to point out the one factor we are all ignoring. Souray
> does not seem to be displaying much interest. If Souray wanted to reutrn to
> the Hab's, why has he not even bothers to return a counter-offer (as of
> last report)?
Dave Stubbs reported 2 days ago that Souray indicates that
communication with his agent is now on a "need to know" basis.
That's seems like freeagent-speak for "negotiations are underway".
I'd place as much meaning in that statement as any interpretation of a
perceived silence on Souray's end.
These are private communications and gaps can often be bridged in a
matter of minutes or hours at this stage of negotiations.
Marty
news:1183044617.1...@n60g2000hse.googlegroups.com:
I was not aware of that. Certainly very cryptic, you can read anything in
to it. I was basing my post on last hearing Gainey saying basically
nothing had happened since their first offer, and weeks hads passed by
that point.
Indeed, things can get done in a hurry, but then again, things certainly
aren't. We're in the dark, we are all just making our best guess here
based on intrpetations on snippets of information, but my intrepetation
is that Souray is not offering a home-town discount, and Montreal is not
intending to offer the amount they feel that market might set, such as
the $6 million figure being bandied about.
Let's put it this way. If the Hab's desperately wanted to keep Souray,
they might be able to convince him to stay with gobs of money and
heapings of praise and respect. On the other hand, if Souray really loved
the comfort zone he found in Montreal he could probably negotiate a fair
contract that would make him very rich but not make the Habs feel they
were putting most of their eggs in the basket of a good, but flawed,
player. However, when neither is the case, as I earlier in the post
speculated, then I think you have the recipe for a player walking.
Marty
j.b...@comcast.net
> Jim has had some great views on all this in this thread and I salute
> him! <salute>
Good, because I've been starting to wonder if I was sliding off the
deep end!
> I don't agree with that. Whether Souray can score 25 goals again is
> not something that matters to me (at least, not contract-wise). I'm
> pretty sure he's good for 15 almost no matter what. That would still
> be near the top of the NHL for defensemen. And he'll still always
> have the size, leadership, toughness elements. Find him the right
> defense partner, and I even think his defensive weaknesses could be
> minimized. And so... with all of those considerations... I *still*
> think he's worth the upper end $5.5-6M salary in today's market, even
> assuming he's a 15-goal 45-pt defenseman for most of the rest of the
> contract.
And let's keep in mind that many people are projecting Tom Preissing
-- who, while he certainly has his strong points, is smaller than
Souray, not reknowned for tough defensive play, and scored all of
seven goals last season -- will pull around $4 million in free agency
this year. Loogie's prediction in another thread that you could sign
Rafalski and Preissing as UFAs this year for $8 million combined is a
pipe dream in my opinion.
Jim
A.J. Bassett
> In the same spirit of the thread "What is Ryder Worth to you?", I am
> wondering what Souray is really worth.
>
> Here is what I am thinking;
>
> I like Souray. I love his shot and his on ice attitude. He has a
> presence. We have not seen that since Doug Gilmore was here.
>
> BUT...
>
> The last cup... the last two cups... who was our cannon? Was it THAT
> important?
I'd say that post is a classic example of whistling past the
graveyard.
Souray isn't readily replaceable - that's pretty baseline stuff.
If the net is zero after July 1, Gainey's going to take a hit for not
dealing him pre-deadline.
At that point, we can officially discuss "what might have been ...
if ..."
A.J.
bloke
> improve the D, I'll take him @ 6 mil for 3-4 years.
>
might be willing to try around $6M on a
one year deal and then wait to see how
he does compared to what else will be
available at next years UFA auction.
Unfortunately, that will probably not fly
as someone is likely to offer him that
much or more on a longer deal. NHL
GMs are their own worst enemies.
That said, it would not be the end of the
world to overpay Souray. Heck, they
overpaid Niinimaa by about $2M last
year and the earth is still orbiting around
the sun so worse things could happen. I
think the question comes down to who
will be willing to overpay Souray the
most and will that be Montreal. I still
believe he going to the team that offers
him the most $ but I am not sure that
it will be Montreal.
Gerry
> Indeed, things can get done in a hurry, but then again, things certainly
> aren't. We're in the dark, we are all just making our best guess here
Well sure, I hope that's pretty much implicit in what everybody says.
I mean, for all any of us know, it's entirely true that Souray just
has no intention of signing with us no matter what the $$$ figure is.
Plus it's worth keeping in mind that the Habs' doctors have the most
insight into his various chronic ailments (wrist, shoulder,
whatever)... and it's not impossible that some morsel of that medical
knowledge could play into the numbers that get thrown his way. But
when I go off on one my borderline "sign him at all cost" spiels, I am
of course making the implicit assumption that he is at least willing
to return to us and that his medical certificate has no nasty red
flags on it. We don't have too much choice but to "assume", since
obviously nobody is going to give us all the information we'd need to
truly make the right call.
l8r,
Gerry
Chuck
>
> Souray isn't readily replaceable - that's pretty baseline stuff.
Goal production replaceable by increased scoring by forwards. As a
defensemen any average defenceman will do.
>
> If the net is zero after July 1, Gainey's going to take a hit for not
> dealing him pre-deadline.
They spent 90% of the season trying to jump start the offence. They
were still messing around with team structure issues that should have
been resolved coming out of training camp. The decision not to deal
Souray was likely a "better to deal with the devil you know, then the
devil you don`t" move. Had he been traded at the deadline, maybe
Gainey felt, whatever he got in return would not fit into the team's
system quick enough to be an improvement over what they had at the
deadline. Just getting a 1st rounder as a deadline deal + a token
prospect or 2 would have been an admission that the remainder of the
season would have been a write-off. Replacing Souray will require
offseason player moves, and work on the system during training camp.
Getting rid of him at the trading deadline would have produced little
immediate gain.
Marty
> If he can perform anywhere near last season's offensive numbers and
> improve the D, I'll take him @ 6 mil for 3-4 years.
>
>
> Ed
OK. Perhaps I would too. However, why would we expect this? Has Souray
ever put together 2 great seasons? No. Has his defensive play showed
steady improvement throughout his career? No. And has he ever put up
offensive numbers like last season before? No. He had never cracked 40
points until last season. So, IMO, it becomes quite a longshot to think
that Souray will
1. Improve defensively
2. Maintain close to same level offensively
3. Be consistent from season to season
4. Remain healthy
He has NEVER done all of these in one season. Now we should pay him $6
million for 3-4 years in the hopes it all come together?
If it was possible to sign Souray to a 1 year, $6 million contract, I'd
probably do it. However, the idea of having to commit for a numbers of
years at huge dollars is what bothers me. People say this team's best
years are in the future. Many seem to look forward 3 years where we can
perhaps be free of hefty contracts like Kovelev's, be riding Price's
goaltending, and have all the young kids developed. However, if we commit
to big contracts now for risky players like Souray, HE could be our
albatross contract in 3-4 years that prevents us from keeping our key
players together to make a Cup run.
If Souray's not giving a home town discount, and it appears he is not,
then there are other options, and perhaps better options for the long
term. Souray has character, but he can't play solid defence. It doesn't
matter how hard he works, he just doesn't make good decisions when being
pressured . He's blessed with pyhsical gifts and an amazing shot, but not
with good hockey sense. He's unlikely to suddenly develop some anytime
soon. If you plan to shell out $6 million for 4 years, it should be with
the understanding the most likely player we shall recieve would be a hard
shooting, gritty, but poor defensively d-man. It is also likely he will
not repeat his goals totals, his consistency is a question mark, and he
has a history of major injuries and is in fact going to be coming off
shoulder sugery. Is that worth 4 years, $24 million?
Marty