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SI - The 12 Teams That Could Win Super Bowl LVI

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Jul 9, 2021, 11:23:00 AM7/9/21
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(Interesting, this list includes 49ers, Rams & Seahawks!)

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The 12 Teams That Could Win Super Bowl LVI
Of the NFL's 32 teams, only 12 have a real shot to hoist the Lombardi
Trophy next February. These are those 12. (Plus one team we already
regret leaving off.)

CONOR ORRJUL 8, 2021
A few weeks back, while filling in for colleague Albert Breer’s weekly
mailbag column, I was asked by editor Mitch Goldich what the worst
prediction I’ve ever made was. On my old podcast, The Weak-Side Podcast
with Jenny Vrentas, I played a character that was skilled in the art of
prognostication, and we had entire episodes based on the horrendous
predictions I’d made throughout the year.

But looking back on it, my worst job may have been an absolutely earnest
effort. In August of last year, I wrote a piece on the 12 teams that
could realistically win the Super Bowl. When it comes to the art of the
prediction, this is an ideal post because it has a long runway and the
chances of being right when you list a third of the league are pretty good!

Of course, I left the Buccaneers—and Tom Brady—off the list. You don’t
get points for having the top three seeds in each conference when,
ultimately, you leave the Super Bowl champion out of the mix. Lesson
learned. Never doubt Brady.

That, due to the sheer volume of guesses I had, was the worst prediction
I’ve ever made.

This year, I’ve reformulated my approach a little bit and have tried to
tuck all my ingrained biases aside. Like in the NBA this year, I feel
like there is a wider total number of teams that could win the Super
Bowl, so we’ll stick with 12. There are two quarterbacks in significant
new spaces. Dak Prescott has returned from injury, possibly healthier
than ever. There’s a lot of mystery here, which is, ultimately, why we
sign up to devote our lives to this year after year.

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Let’s break the whole thing down, team by team.

nfl-12-teams-super-bowl-lvi-tom-brady-baker-mayfield-josh-allen
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports (Brady); Joseph Maiorana/USA TODAY
Sports (Mayfield); Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle/USA
TODAY Network (Allen)

1. Kansas City Chiefs
Last year’s finish: 14–2, AFC West champion, lost to Buccaneers in the
Super Bowl

Why they can win it all in 2021: This one doesn’t require a lengthy
explanation. The Chiefs have the best and most versatile quarterback in
the NFL, a player who can punish you in myriad ways, and the most
creative play-caller in the league. That said, I think we can safely
forecast a bit more struggling this year. The Chiefs greatly
outperformed their Pythagorean win-loss expectations from 2020, thanks
in large part to a pandemic that throttled the offseason and weighted
advantages on existing, successful QB-coach combinations. This year,
they’ll be in a much tougher division, featuring Vic Fangio’s most
talented defense to date and Brandon Staley, who, while defensive
coordinator of the Rams, nearly broke a record for fewest second-half
points allowed in NFL history.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last year’s finish: 11–5, wild card, won Super Bowl

Why they can win it all in 2021: It is nearly impossible to repeat in
today’s NFL, though Tom Brady was the last quarterback to do it and,
again, we are done expressing any form of doubt in the greatest player
the league has ever seen. Tampa’s tough, duo-laden run scheme punished
opponents late in the season and borrowed well from a vintage
Belichick-ian strategy that often saw his teams morph into power
punchers late in the season. Now that they’ve retained their entire
roster, they can build on some of their major strengths (Tampa was one
of the best play-action teams in the NFL last year, even though the Bucs
almost never utilized it) and attack the field with a more diverse blend
of the Brady and Bruce Arians offenses.


3. Cleveland Browns
Last year’s finish: 11–5, wild card, lost to Chiefs in the divisional round

Why they can win it all in 2021: The Browns were one of the more
balanced teams in the NFL last year, despite some glaring holes on the
defensive side of the ball. While it’s always difficult to place too
many expectations on the shoulders of rookie corners and hybrid
linebackers, the additions of Greg Newsome II, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
and Tony Fields II made them significantly tougher and more versatile in
a division that requires thickness to fend off serious downhill running,
flexibility to match mobile quarterbacks and good tight end play, and
multifaceted coverage skills for the wide variety of deep-threat
receivers. Their running game is under the care of Bill Callahan, one of
the greatest offensive line coaches and run-game coordinators in NFL
history, and features a deep stable of backs who keep pressure off Baker
Mayfield (he was under less pressure than only eight other quarterbacks
in the NFL last year). If Cleveland can build on its success from a year
ago and find itself as a slightly more capable team defending the pass,
it could surge to the conference championship.

4. Buffalo Bills
Last year’s finish: 13–3, AFC East champion, lost to Chiefs in the
conference championship


Why they can win it all in 2021: While the Bills may have ultimately
missed their window (Josh Allen will be a $40 million-plus player next
year and Buffalo must begin to budget accordingly), they are still a
tremendously well-coached team with a sound defense and one of the best
matchup-based offensive coordinators in the NFL. Allen’s ability to
scare teams as both a deep passer and power runner made Buffalo a
continuous threat in 2020 and will likely do so again this year. Their
ability to pick apart opponents could be seen in the fact that they were
still logging a league-best 0.14 EPA per play rating on plays that did
not feature backfield motion or any sort of presnap window dressing.
Allen allows you to simply line up and play tough football. With the
addition of both Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham Jr., the Bills have
indicated to all of us that being a middling pressure team is
unacceptable, especially in the ho-hum AFC East. Following the
Buccaneers’ blueprint, their hope is that an overload of skilled rushers
can maximize a talented secondary.

5. Green Bay Packers
Last year’s finish: 13–3, NFC North champion, lost to Buccaneers in
conference championship

Why they can win it all in 2021: The Packers, like the 49ers, have
mastered the Mike Shanahan–Alex Gibbs outside zone system that perfectly
marries the run and pass games together. Once a system like this is
perfected and the roster is built around it, you become stronger with
the years each coach and quarterback spend in the offense.
Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers’s absence has caused a bit of a standstill
on the development front, but that won’t stop coach Matt LaFleur and
offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett from continuing to identify
critical mismatches to exploit across a vulnerable division. While the
Packers would not make this list if Jordan Love were their full-time
starter in 2021, I think they could still be good enough to compete for,
and possibly eke out, a division win if things got NFC East–style sloppy.


6. Los Angeles Rams
Last year’s finish: 10–6, wild card, lost to Packers in divisional round

Why they can win it all in 2021: We’re told the addition of Matthew
Stafford will make the Rams a completely different team this year,
though that remains to be seen. Interestingly enough, the Rams were a
potent offensive team when Sean McVay was pulling the puppet strings in
Jared Goff’s helmet before the snap. What happens now, when there is
more autonomy and, theoretically, creativity at the position? At best,
Stafford hits all the throws Goff couldn’t, or didn’t recognize were
there. And that is enough to overcome the loss of an excellent defensive
coordinator and the best safety in football last year. Either way, the
Rams are all in, and after Tampa Bay’s sudden Super Bowl surge, it’s a
tactic one has to respect when the coach and quarterback are both top-notch.


7. San Francisco 49ers
Last year’s finish: 6–10, last place in the NFC West

Why they can win it all in 2021: This is still a team that bullied its
way to a Super Bowl with Jimmy Garoppolo under center two years ago. The
49ers were decimated by injuries last year and, by the middle of the
season, were completely unrecognizable from the juggernaut that seemed
to be forming the year before. Kyle Shanahan is still a sharp mind, and
while he lost a ton of brain power on the coaching staff this offseason
with the departures of Robert Saleh, John Benton and Mike LaFleur, he
still has the talented Mike McDaniel at his side, along with offensive
line guru Chris Foerster. While some people might cock their heads at
this pick, Garoppolo is certainly motivated to play his way into another
starting role elsewhere in 2022 and the 49ers also have the option,
whenever they so choose, to pull the rip cord on Trey Lance and
introduce a little chaos into defensive meeting rooms everywhere.


8. Dallas Cowboys
Last year’s finish: 6–10, third place in the NFC East

Why they can win it all in 2021: With Prescott back and healthy, all
things are possible. While the jury is still out on Mike McCarthy sans
Brett Favre or Rodgers in terms of his ability to run an operation and
read a room, the Cowboys have made significant strides this offseason to
shore up glaring issues. The hiring of Dan Quinn as defensive
coordinator could be instrumental in lifting the sour mood left behind a
year ago. The Cowboys have one of the deepest linebacking corps in
football, which will help them weather a conference that will test their
ability to defend the run against multiple schemes with talented backs.

9. Indianapolis Colts
Last year’s finish: 11–5, wild card, lost to Bills in the divisional round

Why they can win it all in 2021: This is one of the most complete teams
in football. Should Rock Ya-Sin take a step forward, helping the Colts
round out their secondary instead of merely masking it, Indianapolis
could not only cruise to an AFC South title (sorry, Titans) but make
some noise in the playoffs. The major question mark here would seem to
be Carson Wentz, but pairing him with Frank Reich again ensures that
there will be an offense with more stable checks and balances. When
Reich fled to Indianapolis back in 2018, so did Wentz’s expectations of
a reasonably digestible set of progressions behind center. That caused
bad habits and bad blood, both of which are gone now.


10. Baltimore Ravens
Last year’s finish: 11–5, wild card, lost to Bills in divisional round

Why they can win it all in 2021: Having a gifted playmaker like Lamar
Jackson ensures you’ll be in the mix regardless of how circumstances
fall around him. Last season was a disappointment, largely a reflection
of some financial decisions the Ravens probably wish they could have
back, as well as some critical roster happenings out of their control.
The additions of two capable wide receivers into the scheme should be
enough to bolster an offense that found itself susceptible to pressure
(Baltimore was the 16th-most pressured team in football last year),
given the team’s tendency to run the ball. Jackson needs to change his
heat map in order to be truly effective beyond what the scheme is
providing, and bringing in both Sammy Watkins and Rashod Bateman will be
a critical step in that direction. The Ravens are undoubtedly trying to
stretch the field more this year, which brings us to a fascinating
evaluation period for Jackson, who has already shown us so much.

11. Seattle Seahawks
Last year’s finish: 12–4, NFC West champion, lost to Rams in the
wild-card round

Why they can win it all in 2021: This is sort of a legacy gift to
Russell Wilson, who, along with his cadre of talented receivers, is
about the only thing worth having faith in. Wilson’s hot start in 2020
was stymied when the Seahawks receded their plans to run a full-throttle
passing offense. The addition of Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator
shows an interest in possibly melding the pass and run games like the
49ers, Rams and Packers have done in the past, though it’s a long and
sometimes arduous process when the offensive line talent lags in some
areas. Until Pete Carroll’s defense retains some of its teeth, though,
it’s hard to envision Seattle actually winning the Super Bowl outside of
some true Wilson hero ball.


12. Los Angeles Chargers
Last year’s finish: 7–9, third place in the AFC West

Why they can win it all in 2021: If there is one coach who can have a
Kevin Stefanski–type effect on his roster in Year 1, it’s Brandon
Staley. The defense, which failed to generate much pressure and was
gouged against certain rushing offenses in 2020, will inevitably be
better. The quarterback, reigning rookie of the year Justin Herbert, is
another story. Staley is a former quarterback who obviously understands
the position intimately, though his choice of offensive coordinator was
a bit underwhelming. Joe Lombardi, in fewer than two years as the Lions’
offensive coordinator in 2014 and ’15, was 19th and 18th in net yards
per attempt, respectively. There was no top 10 finish in points, and
Lombardi was dismissed after Week 7 of that second season. There are
going to be some difficult aspects of Anthony Lynn’s tenure with the
Chargers to replace. For example, the Chargers were eighth in facing
pressure last year thanks to a porous offensive line (which has since
been repaired via the draft and free agency). Yet, no team finished with
a better EPA per play average against pressure than them—with a rookie
quarterback who was not the presumptive starter out of camp. Truly
incredible.


One noticeable absence
It was between the Colts, Chargers and Patriots for our final spot on
the list. I still fully expect Bill Belichick to find his way back into
the playoff picture, though it may ultimately be difficult to break in a
rookie starter, while transitioning the offense from Cam Newton to win a
Super Bowl. Still, it is with a great deal of anguish that I make this
decision (similar to the level of angst I felt replacing Trey Lance with
Mac Jones at the 11th hour before my final mock draft was published).
Part of me expects the Patriots to come out and destroy opponents this
year. But without hard evidence as to what it might look like, or who
will be taking a majority of the snaps under center, the scales tipped
slightly in favor of the Reich/Wentz relationship, and Staley’s ability
to quickly improve an already talented defense.

So, after leaving the greatest player in NFL history off my list a year
ago, I’ve opted to leave the greatest coach in NFL history off my list
this year. Congratulations in advance, New England fans, on your Super
Bowl LVI title.

More From Conor Orr:

• Setting Realistic Expectations for 2021's Rookie Quarterbacks
• How Many Super Bowls Would Rodgers and Brady Have on Each Other's Teams
• 10 NFL Players Who Could Make Their First Pro Bowl in 2021
• Six Losing Teams in 2020 That Will Make the Playoffs in 2021

BY CONOR ORR
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