Interesting Schott article
Tutor
don't come thry well here so here is the link to the actual article:
http://www.nyjetscap.com/Schottenheimer.html
A good read for this group with all the Schott discussions over the
past 2 years. Also, after seeing how this season has progressed, or
should I say regressed offensively, and the lack of any visible
development plan for Sanchize (who keeps repeating the same mistakes
over and over), I have given up on Schott.
A Look Inside the Brian Schottenheimer Offense
It’s very easy to pile on the Jets offense right now. Their QB is
playing poorly and the team has hit the skids. This is nothing new for
Jets fans, however, when it comes to the QB position. Since 2007 the
position has been nothing short of a disaster. Chad Pennington was
benched halfway through 2007 to make way for Kellen Clemens. Clemens
was so bad he never got another chance with the Jets and it is
unlikely he will ever get a chance again in the NFL. Brett Favre came
in off an MVP type campaign and replaced Pennington in 2008. Favre
struggled as a Jet, blamed partially on injuries, and the team
crashed. Pennington went on to be runner up in the MVP voting as a
Miami Dolphin. Favre moved onto Minnesota and is currently
experiencing an excellent season. Enter Mark Sanchez, the number 5
pick in the NFL draft, who is supposed to lead the Jets for the next
decade.
Through all of the QB changes there has been one constant- Offensive
Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. Schottenheimer was given credit for
helping the development of QB Drew Brees in San Diego and has been
credited with helping the Jets put together a competent offense in
2006 and 2008. However many who follow the team have questioned
Schottenheimers play calling and ability to get the most of his QB. Is
his system really a QB killer and is he the proper person to develop a
young QB.
I wanted to take a look at the performance of the Qbs who have entered
Scottenheimer’s system relative to their opposition they played and
compare it to the pre and post Scottenheimer statistics. In the case
of Clemens he will be compared to two contemporaries in the same
situation- Tarvaris Jackson and Brodie Croyle. The stats presented are
percentages either above or below the adjusted opposition averages per
passing attempt. I did this last year evaluating the Jets at the
midway point of the season for every facet of the game.
Here is an example to explain the stats. In 2008 Pennington threw 7
interceptions in 476 pass attempts for a ratio of 0.0147 I/A.
Pennington’s opponents intercepted 210 passes in 5,140 attempts for
the season. Taking Chad’s stats out of those totals you come up with
203 ints in 4,819 attempts for a ratio of 0.0261 I/A. Pennington would
then be credited with a -43.76% in the category of I/A meaning he
threw close to 44% less interceptions than the average would be throw
against the Miami Dolphin 2008 schedule.
Chad Pennington
Pennington came into Schottenheimer’s offense off of surgery and was a
complete question mark. Chad was known as a safe QB who did not turn
the ball over very often with limited upside and an injury risk. He
was Schottenheimer’s first QB and Brian got a great deal of credit as
Chad stayed healthy for 16 games for the first time in his career and
led the Jets to an unlikely wild card berth. Lets take a look at the
stats.
Statistical Breakdown: Chad Pennington
Yds/Comp Yds/Att TD/Att INT/Att Sck/Att Comp % 20+/Att 40+/Att
Pennington '08 4.68 16.73 -8.58 -43.75 -12.81 8.64 -0.82 2.74
Pennington '07 -6.27 6.93 -9.74 6.83 49.2 14.1 -8.53 -23.54
Pennington '06 3.01 12.15 -2.02 1.44 -14.48 8.87 -5.19 54.48
Pennington '04 3.60 14.48 -3.75 -32.38 -37.21 10.5 3.77 -15.57
A few things jump out. The first thing, which is most concerning, is
the huge jump in interceptions for Pennington in Schottenheimer’s
offense. In 2004 Chad was at a -32% and in 2008 he was at -44%. In
both seasons under Scottenheimer he was above the average in
interceptions thrown. That is a drastic change. Some might want to
blame an offensive line that was not great in 2006 and awful in 2007,
but his sack rate in 2006 was nearly identical to his in a Dolphins
uniform yet the interception rate is far higher as a Jet. His yards
per completion and yards per attempt were both lower under
Schottenheimer, though the 2007 number is skewed by the line play as
Chad obviously checked down quickly far more often in 2007 which is
also shown in his amazingly high jump in completion percentage.
Schottenheimer either used Chad less in the medium/long passing game
than he was used in 2004 and in 2008 or Chad opted not to make the
throws for fear of an interception. Schottenheimer did get big plays
out of him in 2006. Those plays disappeared in 2007, which is likely
due to Pennington not taking the chance with the football since
Clemens had far better success than Chad in this area.
Kellen Clemens
This was the first development project for Schottenheimer and it was a
complete failure. I’m comparing him with Minnesota washout Tarvaris
Jackson and Kansas City dud Brodie Croyle, who were both 2nd year
“rookies” in 2007. Here are the comparative statistics:
Statistical Breakdown: 2nd Year "Rookies"
Yds/Comp Yds/Att TD/Att INT/Att Sck/Att Comp % 20+/Att 40+/Att
Clemens 11.28 -2.59 -54.76 35.36 74.85 -12.47 -8.45 14.31
Jackson 7.15 -0.89 -29.11 32.41 -29.71 -7.5 -30.67 -2.59
Croyle -6.99 -16.18 -37.63 -23.27 14.73 -9.87 -48.54 -100
When you compare Clemens YPC, sacks, and big plays with that of the
Jackson and Croyle stats that same year it is obvious that the Jets
gave Clemens significantly more responsibility than the other two
teams gave their young raw players. The sacks were far higher under
Clemens than Chad going from 49% for Pennington to nearly 75% for
Clemens, which should be a sign that they should have dumbed it down
somewhat. That type of sack rate for a youngster is career ending.
Clemens big play numbers and YPC were both much better than the other
two players as they were not given much of a field to work with the
offenses being completely limited. Clemens interception rate was the
worst of the 3 players as was his accuracy. This is not to say that
handling Clemens with kids gloves would have worked out better for
him. Neither Jackson nor Croyle are starting caliber Qb’s though they
might have a longer future in the NFL than Clemens does. But Clemens
was certainly not helped in this system and anyone who watched him
play watched a player who clearly regressed from game 1 through game
16. Neither of his fellow 2nd year starters ever regressed the way
Clemens did, though they never really improved either.
Brett Favre
Favre a future Hall of Famer never fit with the Jets. His reputation
took a huge hit and his performance as a Jet relative to everything
else is bad. The numbers state a strong case that he was worse than
Kellen Clemens in almost every aspect other than sacks.
Statistical Breakdown: Brett Favre
Yds/Comp Yds/Att TD/Att INT/Att Sck/Att Comp % 20+/Att 40+/Att
Favre '09 -4.16 -6.28 8.67 -56.40 22.76 10.90 -13.97 -18.16
Favre '08 -13.94 -7.8 2.23 72.31 -0.55 7.13 -7.35 -21.53
Favre '07 12.26 20.45 33.87 -6.59 -59.28 7.29 22.24 126.69
Like with the other Qb’s the most alarming number is the
interceptions. Favre ended up 72% higher than the average compared to
6.5% below as a Packer and a shocking 56% below thus far as a Viking.
Favre’s YPC and YPA were by far the worst he had and he was unable to
find the end zone efficiently. In fairness to Schottenheimer the
Vikings have limited him to throwing the ball much shorter than he did
as a Jet, which is why Favre’s 20+ plays are way down. T hey had the
benefit of seeing a broken down Favre which the Jets did not.
Is the Offense Too Complex?
Schottenheimer’s offense requires a great deal of input from the QB. T
hey are expected to make crucial calls at the line and have the
ability to change plays. Pennington, known for his smarts, made the
worst decisions of his career running the Jets offense. Even when he
had a good offensive line protecting him in 2006 his adjusted
interception rate was below average and he is a QB that is far above
average in this category. The same problems existed with Brett Favre.
Favre, never known as a brain surgeon, looked lost based on how often
he turned it over. People chalked it up to constant pressure and the
“gunslinger” mentality, but that does not look to be the case. He is
sacked far more often in Minnesota this year than he was in 2008 as a
Jet (23.35% to -0.55%) yet his interceptions in Minnesota are non
existent dropping from an obscene 72.31% as a Jet to an amazing
-67.96% as a Viking. And Favre was most definitely not a gunslinger,
posting the worst YPC and YPA in the three year span, despite no real
change in completion percentage. There is a good chance that he simply
could not grasp what they were trying to teach him and it led to
terrible decisions.
Do the Jets Properly Utilize the Field
No Jets QB has done well in the 20+ play category. While the 40+ plays
are often the result a wide receiver simply having superior speed and
getting open down the sideline, the 20+ yarder is often more about
hitting an open receiver in stride and letting him scamper those extra
few yards to pick up the 20. This never seemed to happen with the
Jets. One would think that if you are avoiding that type of play, then
the Qb’s completion percentage should significantly rise as would his
YPA.
If you look at Favre in Minnesota that is exactly what is happening
with their offensive scheme. The Vikings have limited how far Favre
can throw the ball in the intermediate passing game which is why his
20+ plays are so low. His completion %, however, is 11% above the
average, a big jump from both 2008 and 2007. In addition his YPA are a
big increase from his time with the Jets. As a Jet his completion
percentage was identical with his stats in Green Bay, despite Favre
being used much more as a down the field passer in 2007. His YPA were
a disaster as a Jet. There really has been no correlation with the
lack of mid range passing and completion rate under Schottenheimer,
other than Chad’s rise in completion % in 2007, where Pennington’s
passes were so short that his YPA was just awful by his usual
standards. His stints in Miami and under Herm provided much better
results with the YPA being far better outside of Schottenheimer’s
system.
The question to ask is do the Jets not call plays that are safe outs
if the long pass is not there? In 2007, when Chad was under heavy
pressure the dramatic decline in his YPC and YPA indicate that the
safe routes were very short with no hope of working for any extra YAC.
Favre’s numbers indicate a similar pattern. Clemens was really the
only aberration, but dealt with a ton of 3rd and longs due to the big
sacks he took, a problem also plaguing rookie Mark Sanchez. When
examining Clemens high YPC compared to not just his contemporaries in
Croyle and Jackson but to Pennington and Favre it seems as if Clemens
simply locked on long and did his best to find the first read that was
maybe a longer pattern. It would explain the huge amount of sacks he
took relative to Pennington as well as the poor YPA and completion %.
It also is probably a reason why he turned the ball over so much.
Do the Jets really make poor play calls or do they just not trust the
personnel?
Schottenheimer has come under fire from the fan base for some plays
that do not seem very logical. They mainly deal with situational play
calling especially on 3rd and short situations where he goes shotgun
with an empty backfield. Here are the pecentage of pass plays the Jets
run in 3rd down situations under Schottenheimer along with the Favre
and Pennington bookend season for comparison.
3rd Down Play Selection:
< 3 yds 3-6 yds 6+ yds
Jets '09 54.5 75.9 86.0
Jets '08 65.9 82.6 89.0
Jets '07 34.8 90.2 91.6
Jets '06 61.1 92.85 83.5
Jets '04 35.0 73.3 85.26
Vikings '09 35.29 100 91.3
Packers '07 55.8 87.8 89.8
Dolphins '08 37.9 81.4 88.0
The glaring difference comes in the Jets 3rd and short packages. In
2006 and 2008 they called pass plays over 60% of the time in that
situation. Pennington was strictly used in about 35% of those
situations outside of Schottenheimer’s offense. Favre, at his best in
Green Bay was used 55% of the time and in Minnesota is currently used
35% of the time, similar to Pennington in Miami. Schottenheimer
certainly is not using the QB’s the same way as they had been used in
the past, but is it still a reasonable play selection? In order to
answer that lets look at the two premier quarterbacks in the NFL-
Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. You would think with these two players
in the game the offense strictly pass in these spots similar to the
Jets. That could not be further from the truth. Brady in his record
setting 2007 campaign only passed on 45% of the 3rd and short
opportunities. Manning in 2007 passed in 40.4% and in a 2008 season
where he was not at 100% for ¾ of the year he was limited to passing
in just 37% of their 3rd and short opportunities. So its safe to say
what Schottenheimer calls is certainly unconventional.
Now the one difference in this category was in 2007 where the Jets
passed less than 35% of the time, though the QB position accounted for
over 30% of the runs. Some of that was due to the Jets rarely letting
Clemens throw on 3rd and short, which might indicate that they can do
something positive with a young QB, but the other aspect of the 2007
situation was the signing of Thomas Jones.
The Jets used Jones often in 3rd and short in 2007- 14 times to be
exact - and a lot of those calls did come with Pennington in the game
so it wasn’t just a Clemens thing. Jones proved to be awful in those
situations averaging 0.6YPC. I think there is a valid argument that
says Schottenheimer does not believe Jones can pick up tough yardage.
Jones never got the same opportunities after his first year as a Jet.
When you look over the 2006 roster you see a list of terrible names-
Cedric Houston, Kevan Barlow, and Derrick Blaylock, none of whom
anyone would trust to pick up tough yards. Leon Washington is not
really the type of player you think of using to pound the rock. So
does Schottenheimer just not like to pass of has Mike Tanenbaum done a
poor job of finding the right fit for the system? There definitely is
a breakdown somewhere in this regard.
Do the 3rd down pass calls work? Probably not. Logic would dictate
that if a high percentage of your 3rd down attempts are short that you
would have a high 3rd down conversion rate. The Colts would be the
gold standard of such logic. About 26% of all their 3rd down attempts
in 07 and 08 were all under 3 yards and their overall conversion
percentage is right around 50%. A team like the Dolphins, who only had
15% of their 3rd down attempts be from under 3 yards saw their overall
percentage sit at 37%. The Jets have done a pretty good job of getting
into 3rd and short, but are not showing the increase in overall
conversions as would be expected. Here are the stats:
3rd Down Statistical Breakdown:
% Atts < 3 yds Overall Conversion
Jets '09 11.3 37
Jets '08 22.3 41
Jets '07 17.4 38
Jets '06 15.5 44
Jets '04 18.5 42
Vikings '09 35.29 47.1
Packers '07 20.1 46
Dolphins '08 15.1 37
Colts '07 25.6 50
Colts '08 26.9 49.2
Patriots '07 48.2 17.3
When you take a closer look at the numbers you realize
Schottenheimer’s best seasons are coming when he was being forced out
of the 3rd and shorts. In 2006 the team converted 44% of their 3rd
downs despite only 15% coming under 3 yards. With a rookie QB in 2009
the Jets conver 37% of their chances with just 11% of all attempts
being under 3 yards.In their seasons with a higher percentage of 3rd
and shorts they are not having the same success rates.The Jets should
be much more successful converting on 3rd than they have been.
Have things changed because of the rookie?
Not really, but this past week in Oakland we saw a significant change
in philosophy that mimicked the Ravens and Falcons blueprint for
success as the Jets limited Sanchez to only 19 pass attempts and
running a ridiculous 49 times with their backfield. It was a gameplan
that was evident the Jets were going to have stuck with whether the
score was 10-9 or 38-0 and a far cry from what they did against
Buffalo with 38 runs to 29 pass attempts on a day where the Jets ran
for over 300 yards but threw for 5 interceptions.
Looking at Sanchez’ yardage statistics he compared very closely to
Matt Ryan and is better than Joe Flacco. The problem is that Sanchez,
thus far, has not been protected in this offense the way the other
players were protected. Sanchez is asked to throw on 3rd downs far
more often than Flacco and Ryan were asked in their rookie campaigns.
Here are the “good” comparison stats between Ryan, Flacco, and
Sanchez.
Sanchez vs Ryan vs Flacco: The Good
Yds/Comp 20+/Att 40+/Att
Sanchez 13.73 16.14 17.71
Ryan 11.53 22.51 50.86
Flacco 10.91 -36.04 -50.19
But the problems lie within the system. We already know the system
does not seem well defined for the 20+ yarder, but Sanchez is not
smart enough yet to avoid throwing into those situations. While he is
the best QB in this system at hitting those passes he is by far the
worst at locking onto that as his target, His completion percentage is
terrible compared to Ryan and Flacco and that has as much to do with
coaching and scheme as poor decision making. The other players,
especially early in the season were completely protected and made to
pass very safely. The pass protection for Mark has been terrible. This
is due to not just poor play from his line, but the fact that the Jets
are not keeping guys in for help and as a rookie he does not know how
to escape pressure the way Brett Favre did under similar
circumstances. Short routes and max protect schemes really helped
Flacco and to some extent Ryan. They were never touched last year
unlike Sanchez who is getting beat up. This pressure is a career
killer as evidenced by former Jet Ken O’Brien and has to be corrected.
Finally you have the interceptions. Sanchez is throwing them at an
alarming pace right now while the other rookies were protected to
avoid throwing so many. Here are the comparitive “bad” stats.
Sanchez vs Ryan vs Flacco: The Bad
Int/Att Sck/Att Comp %
Sanchez 86.62 19.85 -11.86
Ryan -11.09 -35.20 0.62
Flacco -12.99 -66.67 -0.17
The other area that the Jets may consider protecting their QB more is
in the situational play calling. Sanchez and the Jets throw far more
often on 3rd and short than Ryan and Flacco did last season as neither
QB was really given a chance to throw in those spots. Sanchez has
already thrown as many 3rd down passes as Flacco did all of last
season and is only two behind Ryan. he Falcons and Ravens both were
able to get a greater percentage of 3rd and short situations and that
is reflected in their higher 3rd down conversion percentages.
Sanchez vs Ryan vs Flacco: 3rd Down Playcalls
% 3rd < 2 % Passes on 3rd < 2 3rd Down Conversion %
Sanchez 12.2 54.5 37
Ryan 24.2 16.0 43
Flacco 15.4 18.2 41
There has been too much talk about benching Mark Sanchez as if that
will somehow solve the problems the Jets have. Odds are anyone they
put back there is going to have the same problems Sanchez has simply
due to the offensive style. They will have problems converting on 3rd
down and they will turn the ball over at a very high rate. If they
design an offense to protect Sanchez in the pocket and give him easy
targets the way the Falcons and Ravens did all this talk should go
away. He is playing better than Flacco, but because Flacco was
insulated by a better more QB friendly system he looked like a stud
rookie. If the Jets can get Schottenheimer to do the same there will
be a decent chance that Sanchez will also look like a star in 2009.