Shott or Rex (ESPN Insider)
Harlan Lachman
[Every Thursday, KC Joyner offers a contrarian viewpoint to a common NFL
argument. Sometimes he's right; sometimes he's wrong. He's always
informative.]
It is an unquestioned fact that Rex Ryan is one of the most brilliant
defensive playcallers in the NFL. For proof, one needs look no further
than how well he has dealt with the multitude of problems thrown his way
this season.
The Jets do not have a great pass rusher, lost their dominant
run-stuffing nose tackle (Kris Jenkins) in the first week and didn't get
the services of linebacker Calvin Pace until Week 5.
Ryan also had to make due without shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis for
multiple games. The cavalry could have come to save the day in the form
of Kyle Wilson, the highly touted cornerback taken with this year's
first-round draft pick, but he has performed so poorly that he has been
relegated to fourth-string status.
Throw in a schedule that included matchups against Baltimore, New
England, Denver, Green Bay, Houston and Cincinnati, and most defenses
would be happy to have just survived the onslaught.
Ryan's D did more than survive; it has thrived against this daunting
task. The Jets rank third in the league in total yards allowed, fourth
in rushing yards allowed -- and, most important, fourth in points
allowed.
It is this type of achievement that all but certainly confirms to Ryan
that playcalling is the key to success. Effective game-planning works,
regardless of your own personnel situation or the personnel level of
your opponent.
For all of the success this playcalling regimen has provided the Jets,
it also could be hurting the team by impacting the way offensive
coordinator Brian Schottenheimer attacks Gang Green's opposition.
To be fair, the Jets' offense has posted solid numbers in many areas,
ranking 11th in overall yards, second in rushing yards and tied for 10th
in points per game.
Being around Rex Ryan and his own approach to playcalling has affected
Brian Schottenheimer's playcalling mindset.
The troubling part comes when one takes a closer look at the missed
opportunities Schottenheimer's game plans have seen in the area of
targeting personnel weaknesses in the opposing secondary.
The first signs of this came in the opener, against the Baltimore
Ravens; they were starting Fabian Washington as one of their
cornerbacks. Washington was coming off a 2009 campaign where he posted
an 11.2 yards per attempt (YPA) total. That placed him 96th out of the
100 cornerbacks measured in that metric, meaning he was by far one of
the worst coverage players in the league.
That kind of weakness practically begs to be targeted, but Mark Sanchez
threw only one pass Washington's way.
A similar thing occurred in the Week 11 contest against the Houston
Texans. Kareem Jackson, one of their corners, is having an awful season.
To get an idea of how poorly Jackson has played, consider that he was
pretty much personally responsible for putting San Diego Chargers rookie
fifth-string wide receiver Seyi Ajirotutu on the radar screen of every
fantasy football coach in Week 9. Jackson gave up 98 yards and two
touchdowns on a mere four passes in coverage against Ajirotutu.
The Texans did not bench Jackson after this implosion, so it sounded
like a perfect opportunity to send a ton of passes his way with either
Santonio Holmes or Braylon Edwards, both of whom are a lot more talented
and more seasoned than Ajirotutu.
It didn't happen. Jackson was targeted only four times and one of those
passes came against Patrick Turner, a fourth-string wideout for the Jets.
Those two instances are concerning enough, but it was the Week 12 game
against the Cincinnati Bengals that really set off the alarm bells.
Cincinnati's secondary had been hit with an unbelievable slew of
injuries. They had just placed their starting free safety (Chris
Crocker) on injured reserve. Their starting nickel cornerback (Adam
Jones) went on IR many weeks before this and his backup (Morgan Trent)
hit the IR wire Nov. 15. The Bengals' starting strong safety (Roy
Williams), starting left cornerback (Johnathan Joseph) and third-string
nickel corner (Brandon Ghee) were also going to miss the contest because
of injuries.
This means the Bengals would be playing with two backup safeties, a
fourth-string nickel cornerback (who would technically be a
seventh-string cornerback on the roster) and a backup left cornerback
(Jonathan Wade) who was not even on an NFL roster the week before the
game.
One could not ask for a more favorable set of passing game matchups --
and yet the Jets had a 37/28 pass to run ratio and threw only eight
vertical passes all game. That is odd enough, but they also targeted
Leon Hall, the only starter in the entire Bengals' secondary and a very
good coverage player in his own right, for four passes. It is a key
reason they were actually down 7-3 at halftime to a team they should
have been dominating.
There are many possible explanations for why Schottenheimer didn't
attack this secondary more aggressively, but the one that keeps coming
to my mind is that being around Ryan and his own approach to playcalling
has affected Schottenheimer's playcalling mindset.
If that is the case, Schottenheimer would do well to alter his
philosophy going into the huge Monday night showdown against the New
England Patriots. New England is on pace to allow more passing yards
than any team in league history. If the Jets try to beat this team with
a heavy dose of runs and a smattering of passes, it will mean giving
away a huge personnel advantage without a fight. That kind of approach
can work against an injury-depleted Bengals roster but it will almost
certainly backfire against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.
Michael
harlan... i'm beginning to wonder more and more... i think rex is
pulling schotty's strings as far as the run-pass mix goes... rex may
be the guy that wants to run against teams with beat up defensive
backs...
Tutor
>
> - Show quoted text -
I've been saying this now for over a year. But until now, the concept
has been completely dismissed in this forum. It's so much easier to
tag the blame for the offensive game plan completely on
Schottenheimer. "Ground and Pound baby!" and that's against teams
with the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Duh. Of course that's Rex's
doing. Has been all along. That doesn't exempt Schott for specific
bad play calls and all the silly motion, trickery and off beat plays
at the wrong time... but it's time for everyone to realize that the
decision maker for the overall offensive strategy has been and remains
Rex Ryan.
Michael
>
> - Show quoted text -
i have to agree now 100 %. I am VERY glad you pointed out:
>"That doesn't exempt Schott for specific
> bad play calls and all the silly motion, trickery and off beat plays
> at the wrong time.."
still... rex is probably the guy that is not interested in shifting
gears and going heavy on passing even if they are facing a defense
who's db's can not defend the pass
Tutor
> X-No-Archive: Yes
>
> > I've been saying this now for over a year. But until now, the concept
> > has been completely dismissed in this forum. It's so much easier to
> > tag the blame for the offensive game plan completely on
> > Schottenheimer. "Ground and Pound baby!" and that's against teams
> > with the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Duh. Of course that's Rex's
> > doing. Has been all along. That doesn't exempt Schott for specific
> > bad play calls and all the silly motion, trickery and off beat plays
> > at the wrong time... but it's time for everyone to realize that the
> > decision maker for the overall offensive strategy has been and remains
> > Rex Ryan.
>
> college experience it may be the correct one.
>
> Last year he had 11 TD's, 20 int's & he fumbled 3 times. This year he
> is on target to have 23 TD's ,11-12 int's & no lost fumbles.
I still think that's so, but I have much more confidence in Mark now
than I did at the outset of the season. I think tonight we see ground
and pund and short passing from both teams. I worry aboout those two
good rookie TEs on NE. We can't stop any TEs.
Harlan Lachman
<1ed20a49-0a29-4225...@p7g2000prb.googlegroups.com>,
Tutor <dcat...@yahoo.com> wrote:
David, to be clear, I have not disagreed with your blame of Rex for
Shott inasmuch as he is the HC. At the same time, I do think Shott could
challenge Rex more and eliminate at least some of the bad plays, silly
motion, trickery and off beat plays.
At this point, I think if Shott did those things and ignored the HC and
won the Pats game (or any other game) and was called out by Ryan or even
fired, it would enhance his HC credentials. And, I doubt Rex would fire
him at this point in the season.
So, while Rex takes the hit whether or not is holding Shott back, Shott
is shit for being held back if he is -- at least at this point. He needs
to be accountable for whatever it is he believes.
harlan
Grinch
I'd say Joyner is 2/3rds right and 1/3 wrong up above. Rex certainly
proved he is a great D-guy, but not this year by keeping the D good.
He did it last year by creating the dominant D in the league -- both
#1 against running and #1 against passing, a rare achievement -- using
the same players of the "just another defense" of 2008. That was the
greatest D coaching job I've ever seen at improving basically the same
11 players in one year.
And play calling was the small part of it. The huge part was revamping
entirely the way the D played, "changing the scheme" doesn't begin to
do it justice. Good play calling was important -- but the best play
calling imaginable using the 2008 D would have left it "just another
defense".
Rex's D is the most aggressive at stopping *everything* on the D line
-- both stuffing the run and forcing incomplete passes -- that I've
seen since his dad's 46.
To see this by the numbers, the league average pass completion rate
61%. The 2008 D was ranked #26 at 64.3%, but last year's D zooomed
straight up to #1 at 51.7% (!) with basically the same players. This
year's D is #1 at an even lower 50.3% (!, #2 is 55%). That's some
difference! Quite a job there, Rex.
Of course the risk of betting the house on stopping everything on the
D line is giving up big plays when you don't. And last year, even
*more impressively*, the D while forcing the lowest competed-pass %
also was #2 in allowing the fewest yards per pass that was completed.
That's *real* dominance, and it is really rare.
Here's *how much* the Jets pass D dominated last year: It was #1 at
giving up the fewest net yards per pass attempt, 4.6. The #2 team was
at 5.4, a good 0.8 behind. And at 6.2, behind #2 by 0.8, was #19.
So the Jets at #1 were as far ahead of #2 as #2 was ahead of #19!!
*That's* dominance.
Up to this point, I'd say Joyner understates how great a job Rex has
done with the D.
But Joyner's wrong in saying the D is just as good this year, thanks
to play calling, and that's what proves Rex is doing such a top job.
First, the D has added a lot of talent in Cromartie, Taylor, Wilson,
etc., so why shouldn't it be as good as last year?
Second, the D clearly has slipped somewhat since last year. The pass
D is giving up 5.6 net yards/attempt, ranked #5, very good but a long
way from last year's dominance. And the big reason for this is, while
the D's pass completion allowed rate is still #1, it's yards per
completion allowed has *plunged* to #28 from #2. Eeeek.
And third, IMHO, the reason for the drop to #28 seems at least in part
to be play calling, one way or another. Either the opposing OC's have
figured out how to make Rex pay for the big blitzes by getting more
yards on completions, or Rex's play calling has been *too*,
aggressive, he's pushed it to a fault.
Remember the Minny game when they had Favre and the Vikes shut down
and seeming buried through the 3rd Q, then with the big lead, on two
third-and-huges, 3rd and 17 & 3rd and 19, Rex called two big blitzes
-- and gave up two huge TD bombs, putting the Vikes back into the
game. (I love aggression, but there *are* times when it's smart to
play "contain".)
> For all of the success this playcalling regimen has provided the Jets,
> it also could be hurting the team by impacting the way offensive
> coordinator Brian Schottenheimer attacks Gang Green's opposition
>
> To be fair, the Jets' offense has posted solid numbers in many areas,
> ranking 11th in overall yards, second in rushing yards and tied for 10th
> in points per game. [*But*.... of course. :-) ]
>
> Being around Rex Ryan and his own approach to playcalling has affected
> Brian Schottenheimer's playcalling mindset.
>
<snip>
[Schott doesn't have Sanchez passing nearly enough...]
> Those two instances are concerning enough, but it was the Week 12 game
> against the Cincinnati Bengals that really set off the alarm bells.
>
> Cincinnati's secondary had been hit with an unbelievable slew of
> injuries. They had just placed their starting free safety (Chris
> Crocker) on injured reserve. Their starting nickel cornerback (Adam
> Jones) went on IR many weeks before this and his backup (Morgan Trent)
> hit the IR wire Nov. 15. The Bengals' starting strong safety (Roy
> Williams), starting left cornerback (Johnathan Joseph) and third-string
> nickel corner (Brandon Ghee) were also going to miss the contest because
> of injuries.
>
> This means the Bengals would be playing with two backup safeties, a
> fourth-string nickel cornerback (who would technically be a
> seventh-string cornerback on the roster) and a backup left cornerback
> (Jonathan Wade) who was not even on an NFL roster the week before the
> game.
>
> One could not ask for a more favorable set of passing game matchups --
> and yet the Jets had a 37/28 pass to run ratio and threw only eight
> vertical passes all game.
Gee whiz.
#1: Rex has said, over and over, he wants a "ground and pound" offense
running "60 times a game" if he can.
And remember when Rex's pop punched out his team's OC, Kevin Glibride,
on the sidelines in the middle of the game for passing too much?
Maybe following orders, and knowing what would happen if he didn't,
affects Schott's "mindset"?
#2: As to the Cincy game, the Jets won 26-10. Apparrently that wasn't
good enough for some.
But the Jets have the #4 rushing offense in the league, and Sanchez
has the 29th-ranked pass completion rate. Football strategy 101 is
"run when you are ahead", and the best possible way to *blow* a lead
against a poor team is to take the risky chance of abandoning a
superior running game and start heaving the ball with a below-par
passing game to try to run up the score.
So what's the complaint?
Just imagine if they'd thrown the ball 20 more times in the second
half and lost thanks to a couple more big picks. Can you imagine the
complaints about Schott's play calling *then*??? "Why would the
moron abandon a running game heading to 170 yards to have a still-
learning QB heave the ball around like that? Because it is the only
possible way the idiot could lose this game, that's why!"
I mean, c'mon.
> That is odd enough, but they also targeted
> Leon Hall, the only starter in the entire Bengals' secondary and a very
> good coverage player in his own right, for four passes. It is a key
> reason they were actually down 7-3 at halftime to a team they should
> have been dominating.
>
> There are many possible explanations for why Schottenheimer didn't
> attack this secondary more aggressively, but the one that keeps coming
> to my mind is that being around Ryan and his own approach to playcalling
> has affected Schottenheimer's playcalling mindset.
>
> If that is the case, Schottenheimer would do well to alter his
> philosophy going into the huge Monday night showdown against the New
> England Patriots.
He *must* mean "Rex would do well to alter his philosophy going into
the huge Monday night showdown..."
Right? Because who gives the orders?