Playoff outlook, four weeks to go
Adam Smith
title is out of reach, since it would take a lot of breaks for the
Broncos to match records with the Chargers and also have the
tiebreakers line up. If the Chargers lose in Dallas this weekend
maybe I'll game it out next week, but for now I'm sticking to wildcard
stuff.
Tiebreakers for teams in the same division are head-to-head, division
record, common-opponents record, conference record in that order. For
teams in different divisions it's head-to-head, then conference
record, then common-opponents record.
AFC Wildcard standings, remaining schedules
(IND: 12-0)
(CIN: 9-3)
(SD: 9-3)
DEN: 8-4 (6-3 conf): @IND, OAK, @PHI, KC
JAX: 7-5 (6-2 conf): MIA, IND, @NE, @CLE
(NE: 7-5)
BAL: 6-6 (6-4 conf): DET, CHI, @PIT, @OAK
NYJ: 6-6 (5-5 conf): @TB, IND, @ATL, CIN
MIA: 6-6 (4-4 conf): @JAX, TEN, HOU, PIT
PIT: 6-6 (4-5 conf): @CLE, GB, BAL, @MIA
The bad news this week is that the Broncos are going to need a huge
amount of good luck to beat the Colts. The other bad news this week
is that the Ravens, Steelers, and Jets are playing against opponents
with a combined record of 4-32, so it seems likely the Broncos will
lose some ground.
The good news this week is that the Jaguars and Dolphins are playing
each other, which is win-win for the Broncos. If the Jaguars win, the
Dolphins are effectively out of the wildcard hunt. If the Dolphins
win, then the Jaguars will be 7-6 with tough games against the Colts
and Patriots coming up.
Also if the Dolphins win, they'll stay on the Patriots' heels for the
AFC East title. For our purposes it would be better for the Dolphins
to win the East and knock the Patriots into the wild-card race, since
the Broncos have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Pats.
Jon Jon
Adam, good post - I listened to ESPN the other night when a Reporter had
an "expert" breaking all this down, and the expert had Denver at nothing
less than a Wild Card with the other AFC Wild Card being the tight
dogfight ... this was, of course, with the ASSUMED wins, etc.
We all know Indy will be tough, to say the least, but the one game that
I'd be leary of is @ Philly.
Okie dokie, food time.
:-)
Nunya Bidnits
I don't see Indy losing that game, even if they don't control time of
possession or have the turnover advantage. If you give Manning 20 minutes of
the game, he'll have you for lunch. I don't see them taking games off at
this point. They may rest coming up on the playoffs, but not yet.
Philly is also a team to worry about, but looking at the records of the
teams in competition for a wild card, and the teams they face, I'd say the
Donks have a fairly good chance of getting in.
MartyB in KC
Cleatarrior
I wonder which team you guys will be bringing to Mile High, the one that
slapped the Stillas, or the scrubs we pushed around Sunday.
I don't like revenge games, but this one has it written all over it.
Adam Smith
september.invalid> wrote:
> I don't see Indy losing that game, even if they don't control time of
> possession or have the turnover advantage. If you give Manning 20 minutes of
> the game, he'll have you for lunch. I don't see them taking games off at
> this point. They may rest coming up on the playoffs, but not yet.
If the Colts win this game, they'll be able to take the next four
weeks off (including the wild-card bye). So yeah, this is exactly the
game they would be least likely to rest for, overlook, or otherwise
throw away. Sigh.
I guess I'd rather be playing the Colts than the Saints, but that's
not saying much.
Adam Smith
Not to mention the Raiders just beat the Steelers too. You really
can't pencil in wins with any confidence in the NFL anymore.
Nunya Bidnits
One can only hope.... Go Chiefs!
Not that I'm against anybody from the AFCW going to the playoffs, given that
the Chiefs surely aren't going unless someone nukes a few stadiums, but a
win is a win and I'd like to see us come up with a few more. So I'm not
necessarily hoping for a spoiler win, but just one more divisional win would
sure be nice. We've also got Buffalo and Cleveland still on the schedule, so
there's hope, anyway. But this weekend we're also in danger of the first
blacked out game I can remember, ever.
Argggh.
MartyB in KC
Cleatarrior
Orton's ball control had better improve some or this will be another
long day.
Cleatarrior
I thought Gradkowski had some tools when he was with Tampa; there's a
guy playing to stay in the league, sort of like McClown did.
Can't look past anyone for sure.
Cleatarrior
I can't ever remember seeing Arrowhead as cleaned out as it was Sunday.
Pioli better have one corker of a draft before someone pulls up the
moving vans.
Adam Smith
> Adam, good post -
Thanks, Jon.
Minor update to the OP: I screwed up the Jets' schedule; they're
playing Atlanta next weekend, and Indy after that. (I had those two
switched.)
Also, the Steelers losing to the Browns last night was obviously good
news. The way things are shaping up, it's hard to imagine 10-6 not
getting the Broncos into the playoffs. There's even a decent chance
that 9-7 will be good enough, although I really hope it doesn't come
to that.
KG
What's with the QB fixation? The Colts have a better team than anyone
else in the AFC, in all three phases. That's not to say that your team
can't win, but it's a lot more complicated than "Orton better play
good or we lose".
KG
How the mighty have fallen. Some of the fearsome teams of recent years
are suddenly average (Patriots, Steelers, Ravens).
Cleatarrior
> On Dec 10, 1:57 pm, Cleatarrior <nos...@xx.block> wrote:
>> Adam Smith wrote:
>>> On Dec 10, 9:46 am, "Nunya Bidnits" <nunyabidn...@eternal-
>>> september.invalid> wrote:
>>>> I don't see Indy losing that game, even if they don't control time of
>>>> possession or have the turnover advantage. If you give Manning 20 minutes of
>>>> the game, he'll have you for lunch. I don't see them taking games off at
>>>> this point. They may rest coming up on the playoffs, but not yet.
>>> If the Colts win this game, they'll be able to take the next four
>>> weeks off (including the wild-card bye). So yeah, this is exactly the
>>> game they would be least likely to rest for, overlook, or otherwise
>>> throw away. Sigh.
>>> I guess I'd rather be playing the Colts than the Saints, but that's
>>> not saying much.
>> Orton's ball control had better improve some or this will be another
>> long day.
>
>
> What's with the QB fixation?
Ha!
A few loose grips, a red zone INT...just some little stuff, right?
> The Colts have a better team than anyone
> else in the AFC, in all three phases.
They sure do, except for defense. There they have great sack production
from Mathis and Freeney, but so-so play in the 2ndry. So they rank well
in scoring, but down a pit in pass defense and yards.
> That's not to say that your team
> can't win, but it's a lot more complicated than "Orton better play
> good or we lose".
With a dual sack rush like the Colts have ball control will be paramount.
Cleatarrior
The 2nd half swoon is upon them...
Cleatarrior
ever seen. Made me wonder if Cowher and Chip Banks were back on the field...
Nunya Bidnits
In the 2009 draft they hadn't even had time or a practical chance to clean
house of the personnel folks left behind by Peterson and Edwards. You really
can't just toss the people who have been scouting players all year long for
your team, and replace them with anyone useful just before the draft. So the
2010 draft will really be the first on that is pure Pioli/Haley, and they've
managed to stockpile a few extras already.
MartyB in KC
Nunya Bidnits
On inside the NFL they were talking about whether it's wise to take time
off, especially for teams that are looking at a bye week. They point out,
and we have seen with the Chiefs and Chargers among others, how teams who
bust open a massive lead and then let up at the end to rest end up being
caught flat footed after the bye, when their opponents have up a full head
of steam.
I tend to agree that it's unwise to back off too much, and resting personnel
just to avoid injury can backfire. They need to at least let their first
team get in there and build up a lead. The theory is that they back off and
prepare for the playoffs, but IMO, the best way to prepare for the playoffs
is to find a way to crush every opponent early enough in the game that you
can justify resting in the last quarter. A team that goes in to the playoffs
having demolished their most recent opponents has the pump primed for more.
MartyB in KC
Nunya Bidnits
Look where NE is today, and remember how last season, 11-5 wasn't good
enough to make the postseason. How things change!
MartyB
Howard Brazee
wrote:
>What's with the QB fixation? The Colts have a better team than anyone
>else in the AFC, in all three phases. That's not to say that your team
>can't win, but it's a lot more complicated than "Orton better play
>good or we lose".
Its total package is better, but I'd like to see some backing to any
claim that each phase is better than any other AFC team's.
--
"In no part of the constitution is more wisdom to be found,
than in the clause which confides the question of war or peace
to the legislature, and not to the executive department."
- James Madison
KG
Sure, but the Oline has a big say in that.
Howard Brazee
<nunyab...@eternal-september.invalid> wrote:
>On inside the NFL they were talking about whether it's wise to take time
>off, especially for teams that are looking at a bye week. They point out,
>and we have seen with the Chiefs and Chargers among others, how teams who
>bust open a massive lead and then let up at the end to rest end up being
>caught flat footed after the bye, when their opponents have up a full head
>of steam.
>
>I tend to agree that it's unwise to back off too much, and resting personnel
>just to avoid injury can backfire. They need to at least let their first
>team get in there and build up a lead. The theory is that they back off and
>prepare for the playoffs, but IMO, the best way to prepare for the playoffs
>is to find a way to crush every opponent early enough in the game that you
>can justify resting in the last quarter. A team that goes in to the playoffs
>having demolished their most recent opponents has the pump primed for more.
True.
On the other hand, the team wants to get better each week leading
through the playoffs. The best time to go easy is early.
Adam Smith
Good post, but in this NG you could have saved a lot of time by
shortening it to:
> Jaguars@Broncos, '96 playoffs.
;)
Cleatarrior
Yeah I really thought there wasn't much hope in the '09 scenario, that
said, Lindy's graded you guys out at a B- which at least isn't a total loss.
NE's '09 draft was an A - so there is light ahead in the tunnel...
<ducks>
Cleatarrior
Caldwell is going to have play this out carefully, losing momentum as
the season closes is bad for the playoffs.
The Steelers look cooked, but their SB opponent Cards appear to be
arcing upward as the close approaches.
So the NFC playoffs should be a treat this time.
Cleatarrior
> On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 10:21:18 -0800 (PST), KG <kgrin...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> What's with the QB fixation? The Colts have a better team than anyone
>> else in the AFC, in all three phases. That's not to say that your team
>> can't win, but it's a lot more complicated than "Orton better play
>> good or we lose".
>
> Its total package is better, but I'd like to see some backing to any
> claim that each phase is better than any other AFC team's.
Agreed, they have their holes. It's good to see Pops Coyer doing well.
Piece in the Post today fairly cites his firing as the beginning of
Shanny's demise, both defensively and overall. I don't think I'd argue
with that.
Cleatarrior
This will be Polumbus' biggest test yet. And Clady too. That speed D
that Coyer runs will be keying on Orton. And we know what happens if
Simms gets in...
Cleatarrior
Saw the '97 rematch in person, Vaughn Hebron rocked! Cold, gray, windy
a2nd 1/2 though. Kinda miss old Mile High, but not that blasted chopper
hovering over the hotel almost all game.
Biff
even more precise... MDP, waddle waddle...
--
biff [hr14...@sneakemail.com]
(put "blackcherry" in the subject line to get through)
_______ ____
| /----/ (____)
c (.).) |Budw|
( (_)) (_)(__)
\ . | | (__)
\___/ | (__)
----
Words of Wisdom for Saturday, October 17, 2009...
Is there anything more beautiful than a beautiful,
beautiful flamingo, flying across in front of a beautiful
sunset? And he's carrying a beautiful rose in his beak,
and also he's carrying a very beautiful painting with his
feet. And also, you're drunk.
Nunya Bidnits
"Cleatarrior" <nos...@xx.block> wrote in message
news:hg0pdl$5id$1...@news.datemas.de...
>
> NE's '09 draft was an A - so there is light ahead in the tunnel...
>
> <ducks>
Ducks? I thought they were geese. I was gonna roast one.
Cleatarrior
LaGarrette Blount anyone?
Nunya Bidnits
"Cleatarrior" <nos...@xx.block> wrote in message
LOL... MNF... arcing upward, as in how a moth arcs upwards into a blowtorch
at night...
Cleatarrior
I believe this game took out Ditka's perfect record on MNF picks.
They looked completely out of synch from the get go.
Ugly game. I'd have been tempted to yank Warner at the 1/2 and let
Leinart try his hand.