AFC playoff picture 12/6/00
Adam Smith
The unlucky part of this is that I'm going to miss both of the next
two games because I'll be on airplanes. I'll also be offline next
week (probably), so I'm going to try to cover two weeks worth of
playoff positioning here.
Once again, here's a list of all teams in the AFC with six or fewer
losses:
Team Rec AFC Gms remaining (AFC contenders in CAPS)
--------------- ---- --- --------------------------------------
Miami(E) 10-3 8-2 Tampa Bay, INDIANAPOLIS, @New England
Tennessee(C) 10-3 7-3 Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas
Oakland(W) 10-3 7-3 NY JETS, @Seattle, Carolina
Baltimore(C) 9-4 8-3 San Diego, @Arizona, NY JETS
Denver(W) 9-4 7-3 Seattle, @Kansas City, San Francisco
NY Jets(E) 9-4 6-4 @OAKLAND, Detroit, @BALTIMORE
Indianapolis(E) 7-6 6-4 BUFFALO, @MIAMI, Minnesota
Buffalo(E) 7-6 5-4 @INDIANAPOLIS, New England, @Seattle
Pittsburgh(C) 7-6 7-5 @NY Giants, Washington, @San Diego
Head-to-head tiebreakers:
Tennessee over Pittsburgh
Oakland over Indianapolis
Miami over Baltimore, Buffalo; 1/2 over Indianapolis
Indianapolis 1/2 over Buffalo
Denver over Oakland, NY Jets
Buffalo over Tennessee
NY Jets over Miami
Pittsburgh over NY Jets, Oakland
Tiebreakers for teams in different divisions:
1) Head-to-head sweep.
2) Conference record.
3) Record against common opponents.
4) Net points in conference games.
If the playoffs started today, the three conference champions would
be Miami, Tennessee, and Oakland. Miami and Tennessee would get
first-round byes, and Miami would get home-field advantage throughout
the playoffs. The three wild-card teams would be Baltimore, Denver,
and the Jets in that order. Denver's first game would be at
Baltimore, while the Steelers would travel to Oakland.
With a two-game gap between the #6 team (the Jets) and #7 team (the
Colts) in the conference, it seems pretty likely that the six teams
currently on top will be the ones to go into the playoffs, especially
when you consider that the #7-#9 teams have pretty tough schedules.
What's not sure yet is which of those six teams are going to get the
bonus goodies like home playoff games and first-round byes.
Things the Broncos could do (analyzed to death):
GET INTO THE PLAYOFFS: If the Broncos beat Seattle this weekend, they
are guaranteed to finish 10-6 or better with a conference record of
8-4 or better. Pittsburgh can finish no better than 10-6/7-5; Buffalo
and Indianapolis can finish no better than 10-6/8-4. If Denver beats
Seattle, the Broncos will hold the common-opponent tiebreaker against
the Colts. (Patriots, Jets, Chiefs, Raiders, Seahawks: Broncos 5-2
with one game left, Colts 4-3)
Therefore, if the Broncos beat Seattle and the Colts beat the Bills
this weekend, the Broncos are guaranteed a playoff spot.
GET THE TOP WILD-CARD SEED: For the Broncos to beat Baltimore for the
top wildcard slot (which comes with a home playoff game), the Ravens
need to lose a game. If both teams win out, the Ravens will control
the tiebreaker by having a better record against common opponents
(Bengals, Browns, Chargers, Jets: Ravens 6-0, Broncos 4-1). If the
Ravens lose to the Cardinals, the Broncos can beat them by winning
out. If the Ravens lose to an AFC opponent, the Broncos could beat
them by beating the Seahawks and Chiefs (by virtue of a better
conference record.)
Another possibility for the Broncos getting the top wild-card spot is
for Tennessee to lose a couple of games and fall behind Baltimore,
giving the Ravens the AFC Central championship and forcing the Titans
to fight for a wild-card spot. But Tennessee's remaining schedule is
pretty easy, so this is unlikely.
WIN THE DIVISON: For the Broncos to win the division, the Raiders must
lose a game while the Broncos win out. That would give them identical
records, and the Broncos would be division champions by virtue of the
head-to-head wins.
GET A FIRST-ROUND BYE: The top two division champions get to skip the
first round of the playoffs. The Broncos can get a weekend off if
they win the divison from the Raiders, and finish ahead of either
Miami or Tennessee. As noted above, Tennessee is unlikely to stumble.
Miami stands a decent chance of losing to Tampa Bay or Indianapolis,
and might even lose to New England in their season finale.
If the Broncos win the division and finish tied with Miami, the
tiebreaker will depend on who Miami loses to in the next three weeks.
Currently the Dolphins hold the conference-record tiebreaker over the
Broncos, so the Dolphins will have to at least lose to an AFC team for
the Broncos to beat them. If the Broncos and Dolphins finish tied in
overall record and conference record, then the common opponents
tiebreaker comes into play. The C.O.'s in this case are the Seahawks,
Patriots, Bengals, Jets, and Chargers. The Dolphins are 4-2 with a
game remaining against the Patriots; the Broncos are 4-2 with a game
remaining against the Seahawks.
So... If the Broncos win the West and finish 12-4 and the Dolphins win
the East and finish 12-4, the playoff seeding depends on who Miami
lost to. If the Dolphins lose to the Bucs, they win by conference
record. If the Dolphins lose to the Patriots, they lose by common
opponents. If the Dolphins lose to the Colts, then conference records
are tied and common opponents are tied. The next tiebreaker is best
net points in conference games. Miami currently has 87, Denver has
45. Each team has two conference games remaining.
But wait, that's not all! Miami might not win the AFC East. The Jets
are only a game behind them and hold the tiebreaker. This could work
to Denver's advantage: If the Broncos win the West and finish with the
same record as the Dolphins and Jets, the Jets will win the East by
virtue of the tiebreaker, and the Broncos will be seeded ahead of the
Jets by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker.
GET A FIRST-ROUND BYE AND HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE THROUGHOUT THE
PLAYOFFS: The team that finishes with the best record in the
conference gets to play all its playoff games at home. The Broncos
would have to win the divison and finish ahead of Miami and Tennessee
(or whoever wins the other divisions.)
We can dream.
Who to root for this weekend:
1) The Broncos over the Seahawks, obviously.
2) The Jets over the Raiders, to knock the Raiders into a tie with the
Broncos. This also improves the Jets' chances of winning the East,
which is something we want because the Broncos hold the tiebreaker
over them.
3) The Colts over the Bills, to guarantee the Broncos a playoff spot.
4) The Bucs over the Dolphins, to give us a shot at a first-round bye.
(Of course, if Oakland wins out, this would give _them_ the
first-round bye, so it's a double-edged sword. Use your own
discretion.)
5) The Bengals over the Titans and the Chargers over the Ravens, just
for the hell of it.
6) If the Broncos beat the Seahawks, the Steelers are irrelevant.
General guidelines for next weekend:
1) The Broncos winning is obviously a good thing.
2) The Raiders need to finish tied with or below the Broncos for the
Broncos to get the division championship.
3) The Broncos hold the tiebreaker over the Jets, so it's to our
advantage for the Jets to win the AFC East. Of course, if the Broncos
don't win the West, it doesn't really matter who wins the East.
Remember that if the Broncos, Raiders, Jets, and Dolphins finish with
the same record, the Broncos will get the highest playoff seed of the
four.
--
Adam Smith
On Mike Anderson's 251-yard performance against the Saints:
"It was kind of like the old days a little bit, where we would just
feed Terrell and he was picking up 180, 190 yards..." -- Rod Smith
"I definitely noticed over the past few weeks that Mike looks like he
has another gear." -- Ed McCaffrey
"%@$#*, he needed 30 more yards. That's what I'm upset about. He
needed 30 more to get us out of the record books." -- Trevor Pryce
(referring to Corey Dillon's 278 rushing yards against the Broncos)
"If you don't vote for Mike for Rookie of the Year, you haven't
watched football, or you don't know football." -- Terrell Davis