DPO Kreiger: Orton a Winner, but not a Keeper
Adam Smith
http://www.denverpost.com/premium/broncos/ci_14022796
Krieger: Orton a winner, but not a keeper
By Dave Krieger
Denver Post Columnist
Posted: 12/18/2009 01:00:00 AM MST
Kyle Orton is a winner. That's what you hear, from Denver to Chicago,
and the numbers certainly back it up.
Orton is 29-16 as an NFL starter, including 8-4 with the Broncos. So,
the thinking goes, he deserves a big new contract. After all, winning
is the name of the game.
Brandon Marshall is a beast. In fact, he's now The Beast. He has two
of the top four receiving days in NFL history by number of catches.
Clearly, he too deserves a big new contract.
Josh McDaniels is an offensive genius. Maybe, as some of the older
hands throughout the league now refer to him, the boy genius, but a
prodigy nevertheless, architect of the most productive offense in NFL
history in New England two years ago.
So, why is the Broncos' offense mediocre by just about every
statistical measure? And what does that say about the advisability of
a big new contract for the quarterback?
One could argue that the offense has nowhere to go but up. McDaniels
installed a new system, and these things take time.
Of course, that's what people said last year too. Marshall, Eddie
Royal, Tony Scheffler and Jay Cutler were still learning to play
together. Give them time.
Except for the quarterback and running backs, this year's offense is
pretty much the same group. The backs have certainly been healthier
than they were a year ago. And yet, offensive production is down.
Points are down and yardage is way down. First downs and third-down
conversions are both way down.
The only significant difference between Cutler's stats last year and
Orton's this year are the volume numbers. Cutler threw for 4,526
yards. Orton is on a pace to throw for about 3,575, or roughly 1,000
fewer.
Is this difference because of the change from Cutler to Orton, or the
change from Mike Shanahan to McDaniels? Or both?
From outside the Broncos' meeting rooms, it's impossible to say for
certain, but Orton's performance is reminiscent of Jake Plummer's last
couple of years in Denver. Plummer threw for 4,089 yards in 2004, his
second year with the Broncos, but he also threw 20 interceptions and
completed only 58.2 percent of his passes.
The following year, Shanahan stressed efficiency and taking care of
the ball. Plummer's passing yardage dropped to 3,366, but his
completion percentage rose and his interceptions fell. The Broncos
went 13-3 and made it to the AFC title game.
For Plummer, playing so carefully did not come naturally. He had been
a risk-taker for most of his career. For Orton, it does seem to come
naturally. It is the way he had to play in Chicago for lack of
offensive firepower. When he arrived in Denver, his new coach
emphasized taking care of the ball and he fit right in.
As in 2005, the Broncos appear poised to make the playoffs operating a
careful, low-risk offense. The difference is they were second in the
league in rushing that year. Their offense, while careful, was more
productive, ranking seventh in scoring. They are 20th this year,
scoring just less than 20 points a game.
So the question is whether a careful quarterback operating a
statistically mediocre offense will get the Broncos where they want to
go, either now or in the future. McDaniels will patiently explain that
improved execution will produce more scoring, but at some point your
level of execution is who you are.
Will the Broncos improve as they gain experience in McDaniels' system?
No doubt. But there will also be player turnover and injuries and all
the rest. No team executes perfectly. The fact remains that McDaniels'
offense broke records with Tom Brady at the controls. It is in the
middle of the pack with Orton.
The Broncos' surprising success this year has come mostly on the back
of a dramatically improved defense. But if Super Bowl history is any
guide, not to mention the success of the Colts, Saints and Vikings
this season, there is a strong correlation between quarterbacking and
success.
Orton has earned a new deal, but not a franchise deal. If he thinks he
can do better on the open market, the Broncos should let him try. And
that Chicago first-round draft pick McDaniels presciently kept could
now be the Broncos' ticket to a quarterback of the future.
Dave Krieger: 303-954-5297 or dkri...@denverpost.com or twitter.com/
DaveKrieger
Cleatarrior
> Kreiger channels our own Cleatarrior for this column. ;)
Kinda blew me away too...%-)
So...is Tony Pike that 1st round pick?
Or can we wait and grab him lower.
You heard it here 1st...