Cowboys open as 3-point favorites versus 49ers

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observer

unread,
Jan 10, 2022, 1:01:00 AM (8 days ago) Jan 10
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DLS S

unread,
Jan 10, 2022, 7:26:23 PM (7 days ago) Jan 10
to
3pts..
Get outta here.
You get 3 pts for being at home.
If true the oddsmakers are saying it's a pick-em game.
NFW..

observer

unread,
Jan 10, 2022, 9:44:40 PM (7 days ago) Jan 10
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On Monday, January 10, 2022 at 6:26:23 PM UTC-6, dls...@gmail.com wrote:

> observer wrote:

.> > ---
.> > January 9 2022
.> > https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/dallas-cowboys-open-as-3-point-favorites-against-the-san-francisco-49ers/ar-AASBL7U
.> > ---
.> >
.> > *--- --- ---*

/> 3pts..
/> Get outta here.
/> You get 3 pts for being at home.
/> If true the oddsmakers are saying it's a pick-em game.
.> NFW..

https://www.dictionary.com/e/acronyms/nfw/ ?

Are you saying it's -not- a pick-em game, the
49ers should be favored, or the Cowboys
should be favored by more than 3 points?

Based on an assessment of their playoff
record since their last Super Bowl (11 wins,
10 losses)
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/playoffs.htm

& a careful statistical analysis,
https://groups.google.com/g/alt.sports.football.pro.dallas-cowboys/c/sTQPwrvS2-k/m/o99zUgdzBAAJ

I'd offer the following.

The Cowboys are best in the league in Net
Turnovers. Since you're a Patriots fan, you
may find the following article of interest,
the manner in which the Patriots dominated
the league in Net Turnovers 2001 to 2019:
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/these-stats-patriots-turnover-dominance-are-absolutely-incredible

The 49ers, on the other hand, only 10 teams
had a worse Net Turnovers than the 49ers
in 2021.

The Cowboys also are best in the league in
Points Scored, Total Offense Yardage, Most
Interceptions, & Most Takeaways.

They are also 2nd in Passing Yards & in Low-
est 3rd Down Conversion% Allowed.

They are also 3rd in Passing TDs & Passer
Rating & in Lowest Passer Rating Allowed.

That's a total of -10- critical stats that the
Cowboys are in the top 3 in the league.

The 49ers? Best in the league in Red Zone
TD%, 2nd in no stats, 3rd in Fewest Total
Yards Allowed.
/
So, Cowboys with -10- critical stats in the
top 3 in the league compared to 49ers with
only -2-. The statistical evidence points to
the Cowboys winning the upcoming game
with the 49ers by considerably more than
3 points.

Top 10 stats, Cowboys with 20, 49ers with
14, closer but still the Cowboys over 40%
better along with their being 5 times better
in top 3 stats.

No one ever knows for sure but since the
CBS experts referenced in the following
post did so well at predicting the 49ers &
Seahawks upsetting the Rams & Cards, I
look forward to checking out their predic-
tions prior to Saturday:
https://groups.google.com/g/alt.sports.football.pro.dallas-cowboys/c/LzIdXMD3084/m/L4PFe2EKBAAJ

--- --- ---

DLS S

unread,
Jan 10, 2022, 11:40:12 PM (7 days ago) Jan 10
to
I certainly am a gambler!!
The line is odd to me because the Boys should be no less than 7 pts favs at home.

This is Vegas for you.
Throw out all those stats because I don't care about that when betting.
The eye test said Dallas is the superior team and the only way they should lose is if they beat themselves.

observer

unread,
Jan 12, 2022, 6:07:09 PM (6 days ago) Jan 12
to
On Monday, January 10, 2022 at 10:40:12 PM UTC-6, dls...@gmail.com wrote:

> On Monday, January 10, 2022 at 9:44:40 PM UTC-5, observer wrote:

> > On Monday, January 10, 2022 at 6:26:23 PM UTC-6, dls...@gmail.com wrote:

> > > observer wrote:

*> > .> > ---
*> > .> > January 9 2022
*> > .> > https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/dallas-cowboys-open-as-3-point-favorites-against-the-san-francisco-49ers/ar-AASBL7U
*> > .> > ---

~> > /> 3pts..
~> > /> Get outta here.
~> > /> You get 3 pts for being at home.
~> > /> If true the oddsmakers are saying it's a pick-em game.
~> > .> NFW..

/> > https://www.dictionary.com/e/acronyms/nfw/ ?
/> >
/> > Are you saying it's -not- a pick-em game, the
/> > 49ers should be favored, or the Cowboys
/> > should be favored by more than 3 points?
/> >
/> > Based on an assessment of their playoff
/> > record since their last Super Bowl (11 wins,
/> > 10 losses)
/> > https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/playoffs.htm
/> >
/> > & a careful statistical analysis,
/> > https://groups.google.com/g/alt.sports.football.pro.dallas-cowboys/c/sTQPwrvS2-k/m/o99zUgdzBAAJ
/> >
/> > I'd offer the following.
/> >
/> > The Cowboys are best in the league in Net
/> > Turnovers. Since you're a Patriots fan, you
/> > may find the following article of interest,
/> > the manner in which the Patriots dominated
/> > the league in Net Turnovers 2001 to 2019:
/> > https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/these-stats-patriots-turnover-dominance-are-absolutely-incredible
/> >
/> > The 49ers, on the other hand, only 10 teams
/> > had a worse Net Turnovers than the 49ers
/> > in 2021.
/> >
/> > The Cowboys also are best in the league in
/> > Points Scored, Total Offense Yardage, Most
/> > Interceptions, & Most Takeaways.
/> >
/> > They are also 2nd in Passing Yards & in Low-
/> > est 3rd Down Conversion% Allowed.
/> >
/> > They are also 3rd in Passing TDs & Passer
/> > Rating & in Lowest Passer Rating Allowed.
/> >
/> > That's a total of -10- critical stats that the
/> > Cowboys are in the top 3 in the league.
/> >
/> > The 49ers? Best in the league in Red Zone
/> > TD%, 2nd in no stats, 3rd in Fewest Total
/> > Yards Allowed.
/> >
/> > So, Cowboys with -10- critical stats in the
/> > top 3 in the league compared to 49ers with
/> > only -2-. The statistical evidence points to
/> > the Cowboys winning the upcoming game
/> > with the 49ers by considerably more than
/> > 3 points.
/> >
/> > Top 10 stats, Cowboys with 20, 49ers with
/> > 14, closer but still the Cowboys over 40%
/> > better along with their being 5 times better
/> > in top 3 stats.
/> >
/> > No one ever knows for sure but since the
/> > CBS experts referenced in the following
/> > post did so well at predicting the 49ers &
/> > Seahawks upsetting the Rams & Cards, I
/> > look forward to checking out their predic-
/> > tions prior to Saturday:
/> > https://groups.google.com/g/alt.sports.football.pro.dallas-cowboys/c/LzIdXMD3084/m/L4PFe2EKBAAJ
/> >
/> > [--- --- ---]

.> I certainly am a gambler!!
.> The line is odd to me because the Boys should
.> be no less than 7 pts favs at home.
.>
.> This is Vegas for you.
.> Throw out all those stats because I don't care
.> about that when betting.
.>
.> The eye test said Dallas is the superior team
.> and the only way they should lose is if they
.> beat themselves.

On the other hand, one stat I was watching ear-
lier in the season, but have neglected to pay any
attention to in the past few weeks, it may play a
big role in the upcoming game:

Big Play 20+ Yards Rushing & Receiving Offense:
49ers rank tied for 9th & tied for 4th,
Cowboys rank tied for 10th & tied for 4th.

Very even, but in Big Play 20+ Yards Rushing &
Receiving Defense: 49ers rank tied for 19th & 19th,
Cowboys rank tied for 29th & tied for 28th.

So, in the upset over the Rams, the 49ers went
from a 17-0 deficit to tie the game & win in over-
time. If the Cowboys get a big lead, their weak-
ness in giving up big plays leads them vulnerable
to a comeback as happened to the Rams last
week.

Also, with all 5 of their losses being in 5 of their
6 lowest rushing yards games, & with the 49ers
ranked 7th in fewest rushing yards defense,
therein resides another vulnerability that may
play a role in a 49ers upset, & as mentioned in
the following post, more Visiting teams than ...

... Home teams have won Wild Card games in
the last 12 years:
https://groups.google.com/g/alt.sports.football.pro.dallas-cowboys/c/rFYBxX4u3OA

--- --- ---

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