2021 - Cowboys Projected Wins Analysis based on Points per Game Allowed

[observer]

2020, Cowboys Offense Points per Game = 24.7
2020, Cowboys Defense Points per Game Allowed = 29.6

Per the following, based on Pro Football Focus
ranking the Cowboys Offense as 9th-best in 2021,
the projection for the Cowboys Offense Points per
Game in 2021 = 28.6.

For reference, in 2020 the most Points per Game was 31.8:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/table/passing/sort/totalPointsPerGame/dir/desc

The following article has a projection of Cowboys
wins in 2021 based on how much their Defense
improves:
https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2021/8/26/22643345/the-cowboys-success-in-2021-rests-on-defensive-improvements-dan-quinn-micah-parsons-winning

Key Excerpt: "... 87% of all Super Bowl winners had
a top-10 defense ..."

Graphic displaying Cowboys Projected Wins in 2021
based on Cowboys Defense Points per Game Allowed
in 2021:
https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4U7MMZdhDYIUcW-C170YZHgYNWM=/0x0:1920x1080/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1920x1080):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22807542/2021_Wins_Defense_Needed_1920x1080_2_.jpeg

If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 31.5, Cowboys Wins = 8
If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 28.6, Cowboys Wins = 9
If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 25.9, Cowboys Wins = 10
If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 23.4, Cowboys Wins = 11
If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 20.9, Cowboys Wins = 12
If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 18.5, Cowboys Wins = 13

For reference, in 2020 the fewest Points per Game Allowed was 18.5:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/view/defense/table/passing/sort/totalPointsPerGame/dir/asc

--- --- ---

[observer]

Follow-up:

The following article supports the possibility of
the Cowboys having a record of close to 13 wins
in 2021 -if- they have far fewer injuries in 2021
than they had in 2020:

---
August 30 2021

Cowboys named as the third-most
talented roster in the NFL
https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2021/8/30/22648219/cowboys-named-as-the-third-most-talented-roster-in-the-nfl
---

On Thursday, August 26, 2021 at 10:25:48 PM UTC-5, observer wrote:

.> 2020, Cowboys Offense Points per Game = 24.7
.> 2020, Cowboys Defense Points per Game Allowed = 29.6
.>
.> Per the following, based on Pro Football Focus
.> ranking the Cowboys Offense as 9th-best in 2021,
.> the projection for the Cowboys Offense Points per
.> Game in 2021 = 28.6.
.>
.> For reference, in 2020 the most Points per Game was 31.8:
.> https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/table/passing/sort/totalPointsPerGame/dir/desc
.>
.> The following article has a projection of Cowboys
.> wins in 2021 based on how much their Defense
.> improves:
.> https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2021/8/26/22643345/the-cowboys-success-in-2021-rests-on-defensive-improvements-dan-quinn-micah-parsons-winning
.>
.> Key Excerpt: "... 87% of all Super Bowl winners had
.> a top-10 defense ..."
.>
.> Graphic displaying Cowboys Projected Wins in 2021
.> based on Cowboys Defense Points per Game Allowed
.> in 2021:
.> https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4U7MMZdhDYIUcW-C170YZHgYNWM=/0x0:1920x1080/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1920x1080):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22807542/2021_Wins_Defense_Needed_1920x1080_2_.jpeg
.>
.> If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 31.5, Cowboys Wins = 8
.> If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 28.6, Cowboys Wins = 9
.> If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 25.9, Cowboys Wins = 10
.> If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 23.4, Cowboys Wins = 11
.> If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 20.9, Cowboys Wins = 12
.> If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 18.5, Cowboys Wins = 13
.>
.> For reference, in 2020 the fewest Points per Game Allowed was 18.5:
.> https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/view/defense/table/passing/sort/totalPointsPerGame/dir/asc
.>
.> --- --- ---

[observer]

Hearkening back to an article asserting that
the Cowboys success in 2021 would be lever-
aged off of the degree to which their defense
would succeed in giving up a low points per
game, the following assessment of where
they stand after 15 games (week 16):

Their current points per game allowed is 20.47,
7th-best in the league, the best being 17.33.
To achieve the ambitious goal of 18.5 men-
tioned in the article as mating to a 13 win sea-
son, they'd have to hold the Cards & Eagles to
no more than 7 points, highly unlikely.

Nevertheless, with their offensive scoring bet-
ter than the original article predicted, they still
might reach 13 wins despite allowing > 18.5
points per game.

Their current points scored is 30.47, best in
the league, the original article predicting they
would score 28.6 points per game.

On Monday, August 30, 2021 at 1:47:00 PM UTC-5, observer wrote:

.> Follow-up:
.>
.> The following article supports the possibility of
.> the Cowboys having a record of close to 13 wins
.> in 2021 -if- they have far fewer injuries in 2021
.> than they had in 2020:
.>
.> ---
.> August 30 2021
.>
.> Cowboys named as the third-most
.> talented roster in the NFL
.> https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2021/8/30/22648219/cowboys-named-as-the-third-most-talented-roster-in-the-nfl
.> ---

/> On Thursday, August 26, 2021 at 10:25:48 PM UTC-5, observer wrote:

/> .> 2020, Cowboys Offense Points per Game = 24.7
/> .> 2020, Cowboys Defense Points per Game Allowed = 29.6
/> .>
/> .> Per the following, based on Pro Football Focus
/> .> ranking the Cowboys Offense as 9th-best in 2021,
/> .> the projection for the Cowboys Offense Points per
/> .> Game in 2021 = 28.6.
/> .>
/> .> For reference, in 2020 the most Points per Game was 31.8:
/> .> https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/table/passing/sort/totalPointsPerGame/dir/desc
/> .>
/> .> The following article has a projection of Cowboys
/> .> wins in 2021 based on how much their Defense
/> .> improves:
/> .> https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2021/8/26/22643345/the-cowboys-success-in-2021-rests-on-defensive-improvements-dan-quinn-micah-parsons-winning
/> .>
/> .> Key Excerpt: "... 87% of all Super Bowl winners had
/> .> a top-10 defense ..."
/> .>
/> .> Graphic displaying Cowboys Projected Wins in 2021
/> .> based on Cowboys Defense Points per Game Allowed
/> .> in 2021:
/> .> https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4U7MMZdhDYIUcW-C170YZHgYNWM=/0x0:1920x1080/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1920x1080):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22807542/2021_Wins_Defense_Needed_1920x1080_2_.jpeg
/> .>
/> .> If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 31.5, Cowboys Wins = 8
/> .> If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 28.6, Cowboys Wins = 9
/> .> If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 25.9, Cowboys Wins = 10
/> .> If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 23.4, Cowboys Wins = 11
/> .> If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 20.9, Cowboys Wins = 12
/> .> If Cowboys Points per Game Allowed = 18.5, Cowboys Wins = 13
/> .>
/> .> For reference, in 2020 the fewest Points per Game Allowed was 18.5:
/> .> https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/view/defense/table/passing/sort/totalPointsPerGame/dir/asc
/> .>
/> .> *--- --- ---*