And throw in a 66 million dollar signing bonus...

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DLS S

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Mar 8, 2021, 7:11:41 PM3/8/21
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1st 3 years average 42 million bucks...

And he ain't won a thing...
Shouldn't Rogers and Mahomes get 50 million and Brady 100 million a year???!

Eddie Grove

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Mar 8, 2021, 8:12:30 PM3/8/21
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I told you $40M/yr was the starting point.

All I've seen in addition is $75M in first year, and $126M guaranteed.

Essentially, this contract is *3 year $126M fully guaranteed*, with a
fourth year option the team will tear up, either cut or restructure.

The option is to get a 4th year at a "reasonable" $34M salary, but to
accept a $50.5M cap hit that year followed by free agency. I don't see
that happening.

You can call this either $40M APY or $42M APY depending upon your viewpoint.

First year should be $9M + $66M/4 = $25.5M cap hit.
The next two years average $42M cap hit each.
The fourth year would be $50.5M cap hit, but won't happen.

If they cut him after 3 years, $16.5M in dead money.

There's a decent chance they restructure a year from now, converting the
2nd year's salary into a second signing bonus, spread the cap hit over 3
years to make years 2 and 3 more affordable. If they defer say $13.5M in
cap to year 4, they will later have the choice of $64M cap hit year 4 or
cut with $30M in dead money or restructure with Dak having 10 times the
leverage he had just now.


All numbers assume I can do arithmetic, skills diminishing every year.

Eddie Grove

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Mar 9, 2021, 1:35:49 AM3/9/21
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https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/08/inside-the-dak-prescott-contract/
The whole link content is well worth reading.

"At a minimum, Prescott has a three-year, $126 million deal. With no tag
available in 2025, the Cowboys will surely try to convert the last year
of the deal into a new contract. If not, he gets $160 million over the
next four years. That’s $29.3 million more than Mahomes will make over
the next four years, and he’ll still be under contract for seven years
after that."

It there are fake voidable years involved that the earlier reports did
not mention. Jerry got his 6 year contract, in a way. The salaries are

2021 $9M
2022 $20M
2023 $31M
2024 $29M + $5M bonus
2025 void
2026 void

That means the first year cap hit is $9M + $66M/5 = $22.2M.

One important point is that signing bonuses are amortized over a maximum
of 5 years. The 6th void year means their intent is to convert future
salaries into signing bonuses later. So whatever cap numbers come out,
they will change in a year and/or in 2 years when the $20M and/or $31M
are partially converted into signing bonuses.

I see the contract as, essentially, $126M over 3 years, followed by
possible extensions, culminating in an unimaginable dead cap hit when
they move on from him. Dak will be able to parlay the impending dead cap
hit into immense leverage in any negotiations about extensions.

observer

unread,
Mar 9, 2021, 10:31:44 AM3/9/21
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Eddie, the speed & efficiency with which you
grasp the salary cap & Dak's new contract is
impressive. Myself, the only course I flunked
in college was Finance & I've never been able
to grasp such matters well. I'm at heart a (dare
I say the word) socialist. (-:

Anyway, here's overthecap's updated assess-
ment of Dak's new deal:

2021 Salary Cap Charge: $22,200,000 (10.68% of cap)
2021 Cash Payout: $75,000,000 (34.07% of spending)
2021 Cash to Cap Ratio: 3.38

Contract Value: $160,000,000 ($40,000,000 APY)
Fully Guaranteed Money: $95,000,000
Contract Ranking: 2/115 at QB

Here's their projection of Dak's salary cap impact
and cap% year-by-year over the next 3 years (I
have no earthly idea where they get these per-
centages from as the final salary cap for 2021
hasn't been arrived at to the best of my know-
ledge, & future salary caps are unknowable as ...

... they depend on TV deals yet to be negotiated,
but hey, overthecap is basing their percents on
something they think is reasonable I suppose):

2022 - Cap Number $33,200,000 Cap% 14.6%
2023 - Cap Number $44,200,000 Cap% 18.3%
2024 - Cap Number $47,200,000 Cap% 18.4%

I hope, for the Cowboys' sake as well as Dak's
sake, that Dak gets the Cowboys at least 1
Super Bowl win, hopefully more.

On Tuesday, March 9, 2021 at 12:35:49 AM UTC-6, Eddie Grove wrote:

.> Eddie Grove <eddie...@hotmail.com> writes:
.>
.> > DLS S <dls...@gmail.com> writes:
.> >
.> >> 1st 3 years average 42 million bucks...
.> >>
.> >> And he ain't won a thing...
.> >> Shouldn't Rogers and Mahomes get 50 million and Brady 100 million a year???!
.> >
.> > I told you $40M/yr was the starting point.
.> >
.> > All I've seen in addition is $75M in first year, and $126M guaranteed.
.> >
.> > Essentially, this contract is *3 year $126M fully guaranteed*, with a
.> > fourth year option the team will tear up, either cut or restructure.
.> >
.> > The option is to get a 4th year at a "reasonable" $34M salary, but to
.> > accept a $50.5M cap hit that year followed by free agency. I don't see
.> > that happening.
.> >
.> > You can call this either $40M APY or $42M APY depending upon your viewpoint.
.> >
.> > First year should be $9M + $66M/4 = $25.5M cap hit.
.> > The next two years average $42M cap hit each.
.> > The fourth year would be $50.5M cap hit, but won't happen.
.> >
.> > If they cut him after 3 years, $16.5M in dead money.
.> >
.> > There's a decent chance they restructure a year from now, converting the
.> > 2nd year's salary into a second signing bonus, spread the cap hit over 3
.> > years to make years 2 and 3 more affordable. If they defer say $13.5M in
.> > cap to year 4, they will later have the choice of $64M cap hit year 4 or
.> > cut with $30M in dead money or restructure with Dak having 10 times the
.> > leverage he had just now.
.> >
.> >
.> > All numbers assume I can do arithmetic, skills diminishing every year.
.> https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/08/inside-the-dak-prescott-contract/
.> The whole link content is well worth reading.
.>
.> "At a minimum, Prescott has a three-year, $126 million deal. With no tag
.> available in 2025, the Cowboys will surely try to convert the last year
.> of the deal into a new contract. If not, he gets $160 million over the
.> next four years. That’s $29.3 million more than Mahomes will make over
.> the next four years, and he’ll still be under contract for seven years
.> after that."
.>
.> It there are fake voidable years involved that the earlier reports did
.> not mention. Jerry got his 6 year contract, in a way. The salaries are
.>
.> 2021 $9M
.> 2022 $20M
.> 2023 $31M
.> 2024 $29M + $5M bonus
.> 2025 void
.> 2026 void
.>
.> That means the first year cap hit is $9M + $66M/5 = $22.2M.
.>
.> One important point is that signing bonuses are amortized over a maximum
.> of 5 years. The 6th void year means their intent is to convert future
.> salaries into signing bonuses later. So whatever cap numbers come out,
.> they will change in a year and/or in 2 years when the $20M and/or $31M
.> are partially converted into signing bonuses.
.>
.> I see the contract as, essentially, $126M over 3 years, followed by
.> possible extensions, culminating in an unimaginable dead cap hit when
.> they move on from him. Dak will be able to parlay the impending dead cap
.> hit into immense leverage in any negotiations about extensions.

Eddie Grove

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Mar 9, 2021, 2:46:52 PM3/9/21
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Eddie Grove <eddie...@hotmail.com> writes:

I hear people talking about how great the cap numbers are on all the
sports talk shows. As usual, they don't know what they are talking
about. The important numbers are the monies paid. The cap will catch up
in 2025. Let's assume the Cowboys convert salary to bonus each year as
it comes due, in amounts that make the arithmetic easiest.

Start with the $66M, split over 2021-2025 at $13.2M each.

> 2021 $9M

2021 cap $9M + $13.2M = $22.2M

> 2022 $20M

Convert to $5M + $15M bonus, cap spread $3M per year for 2022-2026

2022 cap $5M + $13.2M + $3M = $21.2M

> 2023 $31M

Convert to $3M + $28M bonus, cap spread $7M per year for 2023-2026

2023 cap $3M + $13.2M + $3M + $7M = $26.2M

> 2024 $29M + $5M bonus

Convert to $4M + $30M bonus, cap spread $10M per year for 2024-2026

2024 cap $4M + $13.2M + $3M + $7M + $10M = $37.2M


Are you ecstatic with those numbers? You took the cheese.


> 2025 void

2025 cap $13.2M + $3M + $7M + $10M = $33.2M

> 2026 void

2026 cap $3M + $7M + $10M = $20M

When the contract automatically voids after the 4th year, there is a
$53.2M dead cap hit. AFAIK, that cannot be amortized or delayed. It
comes due in full in 2025, and that is before whatever cap number Dak or
his replacement has on the next contract.

Think of Big Ben, who has $22M dead cap that came due for 2021 with no
way out. They were able to renegotiate Ben's 2021 salary, but nothing
could be done about the dead cap.

To whatever extent you cheat the $40M yearly cap charge in 2021-2024,
the balloon payment comes due in 2025.

Assume that Dak will have a $22.2M cap hit for the first year of his
extension in 2025, matching 2021, which seems optimistic to me.
If you defer the cap hits as above, Dak gets a *$75.4M* cap hit in 2025.
That is not a typo.

Call #excess the difference in Dak's cap hit in 2025 attributable to the
next extension minus the $22.2M cap hit for 2021 under this contract.
The total cap hit for years 2022 through 2025 comes to $160M + #excess.
There is no way around this.

observer

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Mar 9, 2021, 3:35:44 PM3/9/21
to

Eddie, thanks for that. It all went over my head.
Perhaps if you translated all of that to something
related to "if pigs had wings, they could fly", or
"if ifs and buts were candies and nuts, we'd all
have a merry christmas", I'd be able to relate
to it. (-;

Put another way, do you think the Cowboys will
have enough left over to overcome their short-
comings and make a run at the Super Bowl this
year, or do you think Dak's huge deal will make
it so difficult to get enough topnotch support
players that Dak's deal spells doom for their
future chances of a return to Super Bowl glory?

Just wondering.

---

Eddie Grove

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Mar 9, 2021, 8:40:45 PM3/9/21
to
observer <prohumanis...@gmail.com> writes:

> Put another way, do you think the Cowboys will
> have enough left over to overcome their short-
> comings and make a run at the Super Bowl this
> year, or do you think Dak's huge deal will make
> it so difficult to get enough topnotch support
> players that Dak's deal spells doom for their
> future chances of a return to Super Bowl glory?

Dak isn't the problem this year. I'd rather have him at $22M than
Garoppolo at $26M, that's for sure.

Dallas is headed for apocalypse starting in 2025. If they want less of
an apocalypse, they can settle for merely being doomed starting in 2024.

That gives them a 3 year window as relating to Dak.

Dak's career is mostly compiling stats beating up on bad teams. I think
Dak has basically the same numbers of passing TDs and turnovers in games
against teams that ended with a winning record, but don't know how to
check that. He's coming off an injury that cost him the ability to mesh
with the new offense, so he'll be behind the curve. As GM in this situation
I'd have let him walk. Obviously most people have a different opinion.

Are the Cowboys as good as they were at the start of 2019? I doubt
it. Which remaining players have gotten better? Plenty have suffered
wear and tear and are worse. Even $22M is $20M more than Dak's $2M cap
hit in 2019, and good players were lost to make up the difference.


https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/
Odds Provided by DraftKings - Subject to Change

That has the Cowboys at even odds to win the division and 25/1 Super Bowl.

observer

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Mar 10, 2021, 12:36:50 AM3/10/21
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On Tuesday, March 9, 2021 at 7:40:45 PM UTC-6, Eddie Grove wrote:

> observer <prohumanis...@gmail.com> writes:

.> > Put another way, do you think the Cowboys will
.> > have enough left over to overcome their short-
.> > comings and make a run at the Super Bowl this
.> > year, or do you think Dak's huge deal will make
.> > it so difficult to get enough topnotch support
.> > players that Dak's deal spells doom for their
.> > future chances of a return to Super Bowl glory?

/> Dak isn't the problem this year. I'd rather have him at $22M than
/> Garoppolo at $26M, that's for sure.
/>
/> Dallas is headed for apocalypse starting in 2025. If they want less of
/> an apocalypse, they can settle for merely being doomed starting in 2024.
/>
/> That gives them a 3 year window as relating to Dak.
/>
/> Dak's career is mostly compiling stats beating up on bad teams. I think
/> Dak has basically the same numbers of passing TDs and turnovers in games
/> against teams that ended with a winning record, but don't know how to
/> check that.

I'm lousy at salary cap comprehension, but
as regards all other stats, I'm excellent:

Pro Football Reference stats:

Dak, great start (2016) vs winning teams (aside
from the playoff loss), but since then, yikes, win-
ning teams have been Dak's achilles heal.

Dak Prescott 2020
0-3 vs winning teams, 8 TD passes, 0 TD runs, 3 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/gamelog/2020/
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/index.htm

Dak Prescott 2019
2-6 vs winning teams, 10 TD passes, 1 TD run, 8 interceptions, 1 fumble lost
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/gamelog/2019/
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/index.htm

Dak Prescott 2018 (includes 2 playoff games)
4-5 vs winning teams, 11 TD passes, 3 TD runs, 9 interceptions, 3 fumbles lost
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/gamelog/2018/
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/index.htm

Dak Prescott 2017
2-5 vs winning teams, 6 TD passes, 2 TD runs, 8 interceptions, 3 fumbles lost
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/gamelog/2017/
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/index.htm

Dak Prescott 2016 (includes 1 playoff game)
6-3 vs winning teams, 13 TD passes, 3 TD runs, 4 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/gamelog/2016/
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/index.htm

/> He's coming off an injury that cost him the ability to mesh
/> with the new offense, so he'll be behind the curve. As GM in this situation
/> I'd have let him walk. Obviously most people have a different opinion.
/>
/> Are the Cowboys as good as they were at the start of 2019? I doubt
/> it. Which remaining players have gotten better? Plenty have suffered
/> wear and tear and are worse. Even $22M is $20M more than Dak's $2M cap
/> hit in 2019, and good players were lost to make up the difference.
/>
/>
/> https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/
/> Odds Provided by DraftKings - Subject to Change
/>
/> That has the Cowboys at even odds to win the division and 25/1 Super Bowl.

DLS S

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Mar 10, 2021, 5:11:09 AM3/10/21
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Dallas will get the injured O-line players back and fix the secondary..

I would bet heavy that they get to the SB within the next 2 year.

observer

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Mar 10, 2021, 11:17:22 AM3/10/21
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On Wednesday, March 10, 2021 at 4:11:09 AM UTC-6, dls...@gmail.com wrote:

> On Wednesday, March 10, 2021 at 12:36:50 AM UTC-5, observer wrote:

> > On Tuesday, March 9, 2021 at 7:40:45 PM UTC-6, Eddie Grove wrote:

> > > observer <prohumanis...@gmail.com> writes:

~> > .> > Put another way, do you think the Cowboys will
~> > .> > have enough left over to overcome their short-
~> > .> > comings and make a run at the Super Bowl this
~> > .> > year, or do you think Dak's huge deal will make
~> > .> > it so difficult to get enough topnotch support
~> > .> > players that Dak's deal spells doom for their
~> > .> > future chances of a return to Super Bowl glory?

.> > /> Dak isn't the problem this year. I'd rather have him at $22M than
.> > /> Garoppolo at $26M, that's for sure.
.> > />
.> > /> Dallas is headed for apocalypse starting in 2025. If they want less of
.> > /> an apocalypse, they can settle for merely being doomed starting in 2024.
.> > />
.> > /> That gives them a 3 year window as relating to Dak.
.> > />
.> > /> Dak's career is mostly compiling stats beating up on bad teams. I think
.> > /> Dak has basically the same numbers of passing TDs and turnovers in games
.> > /> against teams that ended with a winning record, but don't know how to
.> > /> check that.

*> > I'm lousy at salary cap comprehension, but
*> > as regards all other stats, I'm excellent:
*> >
*> > Pro Football Reference stats:
*> >
*> > Dak, great start (2016) vs winning teams (aside
*> > from the playoff loss), but since then, yikes, win-
*> > ning teams have been Dak's achilles heal.
*> >
*> > Dak Prescott 2020
*> > 0-3 vs winning teams, 8 TD passes, 0 TD runs, 3 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost
*> > https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/gamelog/2020/
*> > https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/index.htm
*> >
*> > Dak Prescott 2019
*> > 2-6 vs winning teams, 10 TD passes, 1 TD run, 8 interceptions, 1 fumble lost
*> > https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/gamelog/2019/
*> > https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/index.htm
*> >
*> > Dak Prescott 2018 (includes 2 playoff games)
*> > 4-5 vs winning teams, 11 TD passes, 3 TD runs, 9 interceptions, 3 fumbles lost
*> > https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/gamelog/2018/
*> > https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/index.htm
*> >
*> > Dak Prescott 2017
*> > 2-5 vs winning teams, 6 TD passes, 2 TD runs, 8 interceptions, 3 fumbles lost
*> > https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/gamelog/2017/
*> > https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/index.htm
*> >
*> > Dak Prescott 2016 (includes 1 playoff game)
*> > 6-3 vs winning teams, 13 TD passes, 3 TD runs, 4 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost
*> > https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/gamelog/2016/
*> > https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/index.htm

.> > /> He's coming off an injury that cost him the ability to mesh
.> > /> with the new offense, so he'll be behind the curve. As GM in this situation
.> > /> I'd have let him walk. Obviously most people have a different opinion.
.> > />
.> > /> Are the Cowboys as good as they were at the start of 2019? I doubt
.> > /> it. Which remaining players have gotten better? Plenty have suffered
.> > /> wear and tear and are worse. Even $22M is $20M more than Dak's $2M cap
.> > /> hit in 2019, and good players were lost to make up the difference.
.> > />
.> > />
.> > /> https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/
.> > /> Odds Provided by DraftKings - Subject to Change
.> > />
.> > /> That has the Cowboys at even odds to win the division and 25/1 Super Bowl.

/> Dallas will get the injured O-line players back and fix the secondary..
/>
/> I would bet heavy that they get to the SB within the next 2 year.

Aging O-line, new defensive coordinator, needs at DT,
DE, LB, CB, S, at least they have a 3-year window -if-
Dak can start winning against winning teams which he
has struggled doing since 2016. Recall, Tony Romo was
also an excellent QB unable to get the Cowboys to an
NFC Championship shot at a Super Bowl, so it remains
to be seen if Dak & the Cowboys can get there or not.

Tony, a free agent signee, Dak, a 4th round QB, last
Super Bowl successful Cowboy, Troy Aikman, 1st pick
of the 1989 1st round, hmmm. Well, the Greatest Of
All Time QB Tom Brady has shown being drafted late
doesn't mean you won't succeed, so there's hope that
Dak will come through.

--- --- --- --- --- ---

Eddie Grove

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Mar 10, 2021, 6:15:46 PM3/10/21
to
observer <prohumanis...@gmail.com> writes:

> I'm lousy at salary cap comprehension, but

I'll clean up my previous post into a simple table, but I need you to
give me a number. The Cowboys will need a new contract for whatver
starting QB they have in 2025. What should I use as the cap hit for that
QB in 2025? I'd suggest $26M, which is in line with 4%-5% yearly
inflation over $22.2M.

> as regards all other stats, I'm excellent:

Thank you for this.

> Pro Football Reference stats:
>
> Dak, great start (2016) vs winning teams (aside
> from the playoff loss), but since then, yikes, win-
> ning teams have been Dak's achilles heal.
>
> Dak Prescott 2020
> 0-3 vs winning teams, 8 TD passes, 0 TD runs, 3 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost
> https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/gamelog/2020/
> https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/index.htm
>
> Dak Prescott 2019
> 2-6 vs winning teams, 10 TD passes, 1 TD run, 8 interceptions, 1 fumble lost
> https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/gamelog/2019/
> https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/index.htm
>
> Dak Prescott 2018 (includes 2 playoff games)
> 4-5 vs winning teams, 11 TD passes, 3 TD runs, 9 interceptions, 3 fumbles lost
> https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/gamelog/2018/
> https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/index.htm
>
> Dak Prescott 2017
> 2-5 vs winning teams, 6 TD passes, 2 TD runs, 8 interceptions, 3 fumbles lost
> https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/gamelog/2017/
> https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/index.htm

So in these 4 years, 35 passing TDs and 6 rushing TDs and 37 turnovers
in 27 games against winning teams.

The 35 vs 37 over these 4 years must have been the pessimistic stat I heard.

I never know how to count rushing TDs.
QB sneaks or straight option runs feel different somehow.

> Dak Prescott 2016 (includes 1 playoff game)
> 6-3 vs winning teams, 13 TD passes, 3 TD runs, 4 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost
> https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01/gamelog/2016/
> https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/index.htm

So the optimistic viewpoint is 57 total TDs and 43 turnovers vs winning
teams in 36 games.

observer

unread,
Mar 10, 2021, 7:08:21 PM3/10/21
to
On Wednesday, March 10, 2021 at 5:15:46 PM UTC-6, Eddie Grove wrote:

> observer writes:

.> > I'm lousy at salary cap comprehension, but

/> I'll clean up my previous post into a simple table, but I need you to
/> give me a number. The Cowboys will need a new contract for whatever
/> starting QB they have in 2025. What should I use as the cap hit for that
/> QB in 2025? I'd suggest $26M, which is in line with 4%-5% yearly
/> inflation over $22.2M.

Well, you stated the salary cap rules mean if
the Cowboys keep pushing back the salary
cap impact, Dak's 2025 salary cap impact
will be huge. Is there any way they could low-
er that impact? Another angle, if I'm not mis-
taken 2025 is the 1st year of a new series ...

... of TV/internet deals meaning all teams
will have a much higher salary cap amount
and it appears Dak will have to be signed
to a new deal then.

.> > as regards all other stats, I'm excellent:

/> Thank you for this.

[see previous post]

Eddie Grove

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Mar 10, 2021, 9:02:11 PM3/10/21
to
observer <prohumanis...@gmail.com> writes:

> On Wednesday, March 10, 2021 at 5:15:46 PM UTC-6, Eddie Grove wrote:
>
>> observer writes:
>
> .> > I'm lousy at salary cap comprehension, but
>
> /> I'll clean up my previous post into a simple table, but I need you to
> /> give me a number. The Cowboys will need a new contract for whatever
> /> starting QB they have in 2025. What should I use as the cap hit for that
> /> QB in 2025? I'd suggest $26M, which is in line with 4%-5% yearly
> /> inflation over $22.2M.
>
> Well, you stated the salary cap rules mean if
> the Cowboys keep pushing back the salary
> cap impact, Dak's 2025 salary cap impact
> will be huge. Is there any way they could low-
> er that impact?

There's a cap hit analagous to a balloon payment that comes due in 2025.
Did you see the situation with Ben Roethlisberger? He had $19M in
salary for 2021 and a $22M cap hit due from previous years. They
could cut and/or restructure the $19M, but the $22M was set in stone.

I'm asking for a number separate from the impact of the current contract.
I'll account for the carryover relating to the current contract.

Maybe they draft a replacement or sign a free agent, or maybe they
extend Dak. Pick a number to estimate the cap hit of the 1st year of
that new contract. The best Dallas could do with Dak for the 1st year
this time was $22M. At least, I assume they were trying to make the 2021
cap hit as low as possible.

> Another angle, if I'm not mis-
> taken 2025 is the 1st year of a new series ...
>
> ... of TV/internet deals meaning all teams
> will have a much higher salary cap amount
> and it appears Dak will have to be signed
> to a new deal then.

The new TV money may go up a lot in the long run, but it won't go up so
much in any one year. The historical 4%-5% / year compounded is already
high. The TV networks have budgets too. However, if there is more money
available, Dak may demand a bigger raise, and that may be a reason to
increase your estimated cap hit for 2025.

Eddie Grove

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Mar 13, 2021, 7:12:24 PM3/13/21
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Eddie Grove <eddie...@hotmail.com> writes:

> https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/08/inside-the-dak-prescott-contract/

> It there are fake voidable years involved that the earlier reports did
> not mention. Jerry got his 6 year contract, in a way. The salaries are

> 2021 $9M

> That means the first year cap hit is $9M + $66M/5 = $22.2M.


> 2022 $20M
> 2023 $31M
> 2024 $29M + $5M bonus
> 2025 void
> 2026 void

Dak insisted on being able to renegotiate for 2025, based on the
widespread belief that the new TV money will inflate salaries a *lot*.
If salaries increase at a normal rate of 4%-5% compounded, his $22M cap
hit for the first year of this contract would correlate to $26M. Since
Dak is looking for a big increase, I'm going to estimate $29M salary cap
hit from his next contract due in 2025.

Salary can be converted to signing bonus every year, and I expect the
Cowboys to do this aggressively. That's the only reason to have a void
year in 2026. Here is a table of cap hits, where each column assumes in
that year the contract is restructured to about $3M salary [+/- $1M for
easy arithmetic] and the rest a signing bonus to delay cap hits to later
years. Column 1 is what happens if they do no further restructuring.

1 2 3 4
2021 22.2 22.2 22.2 22.2
2022 33.2 18.8 18.8 18.8
2023 44.2 47.8 26.8 26.8
2024 47.2 50.8 57.8 37.8
2025 42.2 49.4 63.4 83.4

total $189M $189M $189M $189M

Each year, they get to decide whether to defer the cap hit. They don't
have to push as extremely as this. However, once you have Dak's cap hit
in the first year under his next contract, I think the total through
2025 has to be $160M plus that cap hit. I don't know of any way around
that.

Eddie Grove

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Jan 10, 2022, 10:21:01 PM (7 days ago) Jan 10
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observer <prohumanis...@gmail.com> writes:

> On Tuesday, March 9, 2021 at 7:40:45 PM UTC-6, Eddie Grove wrote:

> /> Dak's career is mostly compiling stats beating up on bad teams. I think
> /> Dak has basically the same numbers of passing TDs and turnovers in games
> /> against teams that ended with a winning record, but don't know how to
> /> check that.
>
> I'm lousy at salary cap comprehension, but
> as regards all other stats, I'm excellent:

Care to do this grunge work again for this year?
Dak seemed better, but how much better?

Eddie

observer

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Jan 11, 2022, 12:03:39 AM (7 days ago) Jan 11
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Life is sometimes strange. Believe it or not,
I had just checked Dak's stats & was plan-
ning on posting how he did for the entire
year, & when I came to the newsgroup, lo
& behold, you were asking about that.

See the following link for details:

4 Important Dak Prescott 2021 Stats / Rankings
+ Dak's role in Cowboys ranking 1st in scoring
& 1st in total yards
https://groups.google.com/g/alt.sports.football.pro.dallas-cowboys/c/NSf69FIWA0w/m/Pvl1zFiDBAAJ

On Monday, January 10, 2022 at 9:21:01 PM UTC-6, Eddie Grove wrote:

> observer <prohumanis...@gmail.com> writes:

> > On Tuesday, March 9, 2021 at 7:40:45 PM UTC-6, Eddie Grove wrote:

~> > /> Dak's career is mostly compiling stats beating up on bad teams. I think
~> > /> Dak has basically the same numbers of passing TDs and turnovers in games
~> > /> against teams that ended with a winning record, but don't know how to
~> > /> check that.

/> > I'm lousy at salary cap comprehension, but
/> > as regards all other stats, I'm excellent:

.> Care to do this grunge work again for this year?
.> Dak seemed better, but how much better?
.>
.> Eddie

In addition to the above, Dak's stats for 2021 can
be compared for the 6 playoff teams the Cowboys
played in 2021 (Bucs, Chiefs, Cards, Raiders, Pats,
Eagles) + the non-playoff winning teams the Cow-
boys played in 2021 (Saints & Chargers) to the 6
non-winning teams (Vikings, Falcons, Broncos, ...

... Washington, Panthers, Giants) the Cowboys
played in 2021 at
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01.htm

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